Excerpt from the Swiss Bank Monetary Policy Committee statement:
For 2013, the SNB anticipates an unchanged inflation rate of –0.2 percent. For 2014 and 2015, the inflation forecast is down in each case by 0.1 percentage points and is now at 0.2 percent and 0.6 percent respectively. Consequently, no inflation risks can be identified for Switzerland in the foreseeable future.
As expected, the global economic recovery continued in the third quarter, with the main drivers being the US, the UK and China. In the euro area, by contrast, growth lacked momentum. In many emerging economies, too, economic activity was rather sluggish. For the coming months, the SNB expects a slight increase in global growth overall. However, uncertainty about the continued recovery of the world economy remains high. In many advanced economies, low interest rates and high government indebtedness are constraining room for manoeuvre in economic policy and making the global economy prone to shocks.
In Switzerland, the economy continued to develop favourably in the third quarter. However, there are signs that growth may weaken temporarily in the fourth quarter. The SNB continues to expect growth of 1.5–2.0 percent for 2013. For 2014, it expects a growth rate of around 2.0 percent. However, given the vulnerable economic situation abroad, downside risks still prevail for Switzerland.
In an environment of persistently low interest rates, the danger of a further build-up of imbalances on mortgage and real estate markets remains considerable. For this reason, the SNB continues to monitor the situation very closely, and regularly assesses whether the countercyclical capital buffer should be adjusted.