Switzerland’s retail trade fell 0.3 percent year-on-year in December 2018, following an upwardly revised 0.6 percent drop in the previous month and missing market consensus of 0.1 percent rise. It is the second straight month decline in retail sales, as non-food sales dropped 1.8 percent, the same as in November, while those of food, beverages & tobacco increased 1.4 percent (vs 0.9 percent in November). On a monthly basis, retail sales went down 0.2 percent in December. Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland averaged 1.28 percent from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in September of 2008 and a record low of -4.20 percent in December of 2016.
Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland is expected to be 1.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Switzerland Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 1.80 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.