Switzerland’s retail trade fell 0.2 percent year-on-year in February 2019, the same pace as in the previous month and compared to market consensus of a 0.8 percent drop. It was the fourth straight month of decline in retail sales, as non-food trade went down 0.5 percent (vs -1.4 percent in January) and food, beverages & tobacco sales decreased 0.5 percent (vs 0.4 percent in January). On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.3 percent in February. Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland averaged 1.27 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in September of 2008 and a record low of -4.20 percent in December of 2016.
Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland is expected to be 0.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland to stand at 1.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Switzerland Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 1.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.