Excerpt from the Swiss National Bank's statement:
The SNB is adjusting the basis for calculating negative interest as follows. Negative interest will continue to be charged on the portion of banks’ sight deposits which exceeds a certain exemption threshold. However, this exemption threshold will now be updated monthly and thereby reflect developments in banks’ balance sheets over time.
This adjustment to the calculation basis takes account of the fact that the low interest rate environment around the world has recently become more entrenched and could persist for some time yet. The adjustment raises the exemption threshold for the banking system and reduces negative interest income for the SNB. The new exemption threshold calculation comes into effect on 1 November 2019.
The new conditional inflation forecast is lower than in June. This is primarily due to weaker growth and inflation prospects abroad and the stronger Swiss franc. The forecast for the current year has been reduced slightly to 0.4%, from 0.6% in the previous quarter. For 2020, the SNB now expects an inflation rate of 0.2%, compared to 0.7% last quarter. The inflation rate increases to 0.6% in 2021; in the previous quarter, a rise to 1.1% had been forecast. The conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at –0.75% over the entire forecast horizon.
Global economic signals have deteriorated in recent months due to heightened trade tensions and political uncertainty. Economic growth around the world slowed in the second quarter, and manufacturing output has since been showing signs of weakening. The economic slowdown is being accompanied by subdued capital spending and a decline in the global trade in goods. Employment growth in the advanced economies was also slower than in previous quarters. In light of the heightened economic risks and modest inflation dynamics, various central banks have adjusted their monetary policy stance and lowered their key rates.
In its new baseline scenario for the global economy, the SNB is revising down its growth forecast for the coming quarters. Over the short term, international momentum is likely to be modest. However, in the medium term the SNB expects the global economy to pick up again, not least due to monetary policy easing measures. Inflation is then expected to rise again gradually.
Risks to the global economy remain tilted to the downside. Chief among them are still political uncertainty and trade tensions, which could lead to renewed turbulence on the financial markets and a further dampening of economic sentiment.
The Swiss economy continued to grow at a moderate rate in the second quarter. Developments on the labour market also remained positive. Employment figures continued to rise, and the unemployment rate remained stable at a low level.
The deterioration of the international economic environment will likely cause growth to weaken temporarily. The SNB expects growth of between 0.5% and 1% for 2019 as a whole, compared to around 1.5% in June. The forecast adjustment is largely attributable to the fact that GDP growth rates for the second half of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 were revised downwards.
