News

Russia GDP Contracts in Q1
Russia’s economy contracted by 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, marking its first annual decline in three years and reversing from a 1% expansion in the previous quarter. The data came just days after the Russian government downgraded its full-year GDP growth forecast to 0.4% from an earlier estimate of 1.3%. The downturn occurred despite a sharp rise in the prices of key Russian exports, including oil, natural gas, coal, industrial metals, and grains, following disruptions to Middle Eastern shipping routes caused by the war. Economic activity also weakened even as the Duma ramped up deficit spending in an effort to support an economy still constrained by Western sanctions, which continue to isolate Russian producers and financial institutions from international markets. Meanwhile, Russia’s energy revenues fell by 40% year-on-year in the 12 months through April, while interest rates set by the Bank of Russia are expected to remain elevated.
Published on 2026-05-15

Russia GDP Contracts in Q1
The Russian GDP contracted by 0.2% from the previous year in the first quarter of 2026, the first annual contraction in three years, swinging from the 1% increase in the earlier period. The data was released days after the Russian government cut its GDP forecast for this year to 0.4% growth from the earlier expectations of 1.3%. The contraction took place despite the surge in prices of commodities that are heavily produced in Russia, including oil, gas, coal, and multiple industrial metals and grains, following the halt in shipping from the Middle East amid the war. The contraction also prevailed in a period of soaring deficit spending by the Duma, attempting to stimulate the economy hampered by sanctions from the West that isolated goods producers and financial services providers from Western clients. Russia's energy revenues sank by 40% annually in the year to April, and rates by the Bank of Russia are expected to remain high.
Published on 2026-05-15

Russia GDP Contracts in Q1
Russia’s economy contracted by 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, marking its first annual decline in three years and reversing from a 1% expansion in the previous quarter. The data came just days after the Russian government downgraded its full-year GDP growth forecast to 0.4% from an earlier estimate of 1.3%. The downturn occurred despite a sharp rise in the prices of key Russian exports, including oil, natural gas, coal, industrial metals, and grains, following disruptions to Middle Eastern shipping routes caused by the war. Economic activity also weakened even as the Duma ramped up deficit spending in an effort to support an economy still constrained by Western sanctions, which continue to isolate Russian producers and financial institutions from international markets. Meanwhile, Russia’s energy revenues fell by 40% year-on-year in the 12 months through April, while interest rates set by the Bank of Russia are expected to remain elevated.
Published on 2026-05-15

Russian GDP Expands 1% Annually in Q4
The Russian GDP expanded by 1% in real terms from the previous year in the fourth quarter of 2025, picking up from the 0.8% expansion in the previous quarter, which was the slowest growth rate since 2023. The figure confirmed that Russia's economy significantly underperformed other emerging markets as the Kremlin's prolonged invasion of Ukraine allocated government spending in the military instead of investments that stimulate the economy. Low crude oil prices, softening natural gas exports due to European sanctions, muted trade with China due to their anti-involution campaign, and a strong ruble amid soaring interest rates by the Bank of Russia also pressured the Russian economy.
Published on 2026-04-10

Russian GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.6%
Russia’s GDP grew 0.6% YoY in Q3 2025, the weakest pace since 2023, slowing from 1.1% in Q2, in line with preliminary estimates. The slowdown reflects the Kremlin’s focus on military spending amid the Ukraine war, rather than investments to stimulate the economy, combined with low oil prices, weaker natural gas exports due to European sanctions, muted trade with China, and a strong ruble supported by high Bank of Russia interest rates. Manufacturing growth eased to 1.4% from 3.8%, construction to 1.4% from 2.7%, and hotels & catering to 8.6% from 9.2%. Mining contracted -0.7% (vs -1.2%), water & waste activities -3.6% (vs -3.9%), wholesale & retail -1.1% (vs -2%), transportation -1.7% (vs 0.8%), and real estate -0.7% (vs -0.4%). Agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing, and fish farming outperformed at 3% (vs 0.8%).
Published on 2025-12-12

Russian GDP Slows Further
The Russian GDP expanded by 0.6% in real terms from the previous year in the third quarter of 2025, slowing from the 1.1% expansion in the previous quarter to mark the slowest rate of growth since 2023. The figure was aligned with the IMF's projection that the Russian economy may grow around 0.6% this year, significantly underperforming other emerging markets as the Kremlin's prolonged invasion of Ukraine allocated government spending in the military instead of investments that stimulate the economy. Low crude oil prices, softening natural gas exports due to European sanctions, muted trade with China due to their anti-involution campaign, and a strong ruble amid soaring interest rates by the Bank of Russia also pressured the Russian economy.
Published on 2025-11-14

Russian GDP Slows Further
The Russian GDP expanded by 0.6% in real terms from the previous year in the third quarter of 2025, slowing from the 1.1% expansion in the previous quarter to mark the slowest rate of growth since 2023. The figure was aligned with the IMF's projection that the Russian economy may grow around 0.6% this year, significantly underperforming other emerging markets as the Kremlin's prolonged invasion of Ukraine concentrated elevated levels of government spending in defense instead of investment that stimulate the economy. Low crude oil prices, softening natural gas exports due to European sanctions, and muted trade with China due to their anti-involution campaign, and a strong ruble amid soaring interest rates by the Bank of Russia also pressured the Russian economy.
Published on 2025-11-14

Russian GDP Slows Further
The Russian GDP expanded by 0.6% in real terms from the previous year in the third quarter of 2025, slowing from the 1.1% expansion in the previous quarter to mark the slowest rate of growth since 2023. The figure was aligned with the IMF's projection that the Russian economy may grow around 0.6% this year, significantly underperforming other emerging markets as the Kremlin's prolonged invasion of Ukraine concentrated elevated levels of government spending in defense instead of investment that stimulate the economy. Low crude oil prices, softening natural gas exports due to European sanctions, and muted trade with China due to their anti-involution campaign, and a strong ruble amid soaring interest rates by the Bank of Russia also pressured the Russian economy.
Published on 2025-11-14

Russian GDP Slows Further
The Russian GDP expanded by 0.6% in real terms from the previous year in the third quarter of 2025, slowing from the 1.1% expansion in the previous quarter to mark the slowest rate of growth since 2023. The figure was aligned with the IMF's projection that the Russian economy may grow around 0.6% this year, significantly underperforming other emerging markets as the Kremlin's prolonged invasion of Ukraine allocated government spending in the military instead of investment that stimulate the economy. Low crude oil prices, softening natural gas exports due to European sanctions, and muted trade with China due to their anti-involution campaign, and a strong ruble amid soaring interest rates by the Bank of Russia also pressured the Russian economy.
Published on 2025-11-14

Russian GDP Slows Further
The Russian GDP expanded by 0.6% in real terms from the previous year in the third quarter of 2025, slowing from the 1.1% expansion in the previous quarter to mark the slowest rate of growth since 2023. The figure was aligned with the IMF's projection that the Russian economy may grow around 0.6% this year, significantly underperforming other emerging markets as the Kremlin's prolonged invasion of Ukraine allocated government spending in the military instead of investments that stimulate the economy. Low crude oil prices, softening natural gas exports due to European sanctions, and muted trade with China due to their anti-involution campaign, and a strong ruble amid soaring interest rates by the Bank of Russia also pressured the Russian economy.
Published on 2025-11-14

Russian GDP Growth Slows to 1.1% in Q2
Russia’s GDP grew 1.1% in Q2 2025, slowing sharply from 4% a year earlier, preliminary estimates showed. The economy, boosted last year by soaring defence spending despite Western sanctions, now faces cooling growth and rising recession risks. High interest rates aimed at curbing stubborn inflation are weighing on activity. President Putin rejects claims the Ukraine war is crippling the economy, pointing to low debt and diversification. After 4.3% growth in 2024, the central bank expects only 1–2% this year, while the economy ministry may revise its 2.5% forecast.
Published on 2025-08-13

Russian GDP Growth Confirmed at 1.4%
Russia’s gross domestic product grew by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, a significant slowdown from the 4.3% annual expansion in the earlier quarter and in line with the preliminary estimate. This represented the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in second quarter of 2023, showing that the immediate rebound from the crash stemmed by Western sanctions has waned. Output contracted for professional, scientific, and technical activities (-1.3%), mining (-4%), and the provision of utilities (-3.8%). On the other hand, growth was seen outperforming other sectors in financial and insurance activities (17.5%) and manufacturing (4.5), while spending in public administration and military security remains robust due to the country's invasion of Ukraine (6.8%).
Published on 2025-06-18

Russian GDP Expands 1.4% in Q1
Russia’s gross domestic product grew by 1.4% in Q1 2025, a significant slowdown from 5.4% growth in the same quarter last year, according to preliminary data. This represents the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023. Earlier, the economy ministry had projected a slightly higher growth rate of 1.7% for the quarter. Looking ahead, the economy ministry projects annual growth of 2.5% for 2025, while the central bank offers a more cautious outlook, predicting growth between 1% and 2%.
Published on 2025-05-16

Russian GDP Expands 4.5% in Q4
Russia’s GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, accelerating from an upwardly revised 3.3% in the previous period. This marks the fastest expansion in three quarters, fueled by wartime spending on the conflict in Ukraine, which has contributed to an overheated economy and pushed annual inflation above 10%. Sector-wise, growth picked up in wholesale and retail trade (4.9% vs 3.3% in Q3), transportation and storage (2.2% vs 1.5%), ICT (13.7% vs 12.8%), and financial and insurance activities (16.9% vs 16%). Meanwhile, Russia’s state statistics agency, Rosstat, raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.3% from 4.1%, citing stronger construction activity, with the sector’s estimate revised up by 2.5 percentage points to 4.2%.
Published on 2025-04-15

Russian GDP Growth Confirmed at 3.1%
Russia’s GDP expanded by 3.1% from the corresponding period of the previous year in the third quarter of 2024, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2023, amid waning base effects from Russia’s economic crisis triggered by Western sanctions after the invasin of Ukraine in 2022. The slowdown was also due to lower demand for goods in China, Russia’s largest export partner, as its economy slows. The figure was above the Ministry of Finance's estimate of a 2.9% expansion, and slightly below the central bank's forecast of a 3.2% growth. The GDP contracted for mining (-1.1%) and agriculture, forestry, hunting (-5.2%), offset by output growth for manufacturing (5.9%).
Published on 2024-12-13

Russian GDP Growth Slows
Russia's GDP expanded by 3.1% from the corresponding period of the previous year in the third quarter of 2024, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2023, amid waning base effects from Russia's economic crisis triggered by Western sanctions after the country's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The slowdown was also due to lower demand for goods by China, Russia's largest trade partner, as its economy slows. The figure was above the Ministry of Finance's estimate of a 2.9% expansion, and slightly below the central bank's forecast of a 3.2% growth.
Published on 2024-11-13

Russian GDP Expands 4.1% in Q2
The Russian economy expanded by 4.1% annually in Q2 2024, following a 5.4% in Q1 but slightly above market expectations of 4%, according to the final reading. The Economy Ministry recently raised its full-year GDP forecast to 3.9% from 2.8%, surpassing the 3.6% growth seen in 2023. This expansion is largely driven by substantial budgetary spending and increased military-industrial output, reflecting the economy's growing reliance on government defense expenditures to sustain the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Published on 2024-09-18

Russian Q2 GDP Growth Seen Slowing to 4%
The Russian economy advanced by 4% annually in Q2 2024, following a 5.4% growth in Q1 and compared with market forecasts of a 4.2% rise, according to preliminary estimates. This came in line with the government's estimate for the period. The country's growth is now heavily dependent on massive government spending on defense to support the ongoing war in Ukraine. Still, the economy is anticipated to continue slowing through the year, with the central bank recently cautioning about the risk of overheating.
Published on 2024-08-09

Russian GDP Growth Confirmed at 5.4%
The Russian GDP expanded by 5.4% annually in the first quarter of 2024, in line with the flash estimate and slightly ahead of earlier market expectations of 5.3%, following the 4.9% increase in the final quarter of 2023. The acceleration extended the strong momentum for Russian output following last year’s rebound from the 2022 crash, triggered by Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Still, markets have placed doubts on the sustainability of such a rebound, as the expansion has largely relied on state-funded investment in arms and ammunition for its war effort, which are due to bring little return and hamper Russians’ living standards. Growth was carried by wholesale and retail trade (11.4%), manufacturing (9%), and construction (4.8%). In the meantime, the GDP deflator was at 13.4%, extending sharp inflationary pressure in the Russian economy and prolonging expectations of a hawkish CBR.
Published on 2024-06-14

Russian GDP Grows 5.4% in Q1
The Russian GDP expanded by 5.4% annually in the first quarter of 2024, slightly ahead of market estimates of 5.3%, and accelerating from the 4.9% expansion in the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates. The acceleration extended the strong momentum for Russian output following last year’s rebound from the 2022 crash, triggered by Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Still, markets have placed doubts on the sustainability of such rebound, as the expansion has largely relied on state-funded investment on arms and ammunition for its war effort, which are due to bring little return and hamper Russians’ living standards. Russia's Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis warned that inflation remains high, while the country’s labor force crisis triggered by military mobilization and its resulting diaspora of working-aged men pressure capacity. The IMF expects Russia’s GDP to expand by 3.2% this year, while the Ministry of Economy expects growth to be 2.8%.
Published on 2024-05-17