Retail trade in Russia increased 1.9 percent year-on-year in October 2018, easing from a 2.3 percent gain in the prior month and below market expectations of 2.5 percent. It was the slowest increase in retail sales since August 2017, as sales rose less for non-food products (3.2 percent vs 4.1 percent in September). Contrarily, sales went up 0.5 percent for food, beverages & tobacco (after showing no growth in the prior month). On a monthly basis, retail sales edged up 0.3 percent, from a 1.1 percent drop in September. Considering the first ten months of 2018, retail trade grew 2.6 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. Retail Sales YoY in Russia averaged 4.40 percent from 1994 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 18.80 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -16 percent in January of 1999.
Retail Sales YoY in Russia is expected to be 2.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Russia to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.