Retail trade in Russia increased 2.3 percent year-on-year in September of 2018, easing from a 2.8 percent gain in the prior month, in line with market expectations. It was the slowest increase in retail sales, as sales rose slightly less for non-food products (4.1 percent vs 4.2 percent in August) while the ones for food, beverages & tobacco showed no growth (from a 1.3 percent gain). On a monthly basis, retail sales fell 1.1 percent, after a 3.6 percent increase in August. Considering the third quarter of 2018, retail trade grew 2.6 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. Retail Sales YoY in Russia averaged 4.41 percent from 1994 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 18.80 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -16 percent in January of 1999.
Retail Sales YoY in Russia is expected to be 2.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Russia to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.