Russia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.08 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.00 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 5.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.00 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 8.50 8 7.5 7 7 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 6612.00 10500 8100 10900 7025 10200 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 17.00 19.4 21.2 21.2 21.2 24 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 57.35 57.61 57.03 56.44 55.86 49.46 [+]
Stock Market 2073.44 2070 2050 2030 2010 1780 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.52 7.65 7.72 7.8 7.87 8.71 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.08 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 3 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 1283.20 1400 1460 1460 997 1590 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 20952.90 23900 19600 21200 22800 25100 RUB Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4209.60 4300 3020 4400 2800 4900 RUB Billion [+]
GDP per capita 11099.20 11500 11700 11700 11700 12270 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24026.00 24448 24901 24901 24901 25945 USD [+]
Gross National Product 65166840.30 7500000 80000000 80000000 80000000 101500000 RUB Million [+]
GDP From Agriculture 667.90 1100 440 670 1600 1600 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 1082.10 1750 750 1090 1410 2050 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2600.30 3200 2200 2650 2810 4010 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 1870.60 2010 1850 1990 2000 2500 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 1509.40 1620 1580 1590 1570 2000 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 1285.30 1390 1280 1340 1370 1600 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 478.50 679 628 484 488 697 RUB Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 5.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 72.90 73 71.7 72.9 72.45 73.1 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 3.79 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.2 Million [+]
Employment Rate 66.10 65.8 65.2 66.3 65.38 66.2 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.60 69.8 68.8 69.7 69.56 69.7 percent [+]
Productivity -0.20 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 2 percent [+]
Job Offers 1652370.00 1329953 1242007 1242007 1414419 1680370 Persons [+]
Wages 38040.00 49932 40275 44429 39194 58791 RUB/Month [+]
Wage Growth 2.60 3.8 3.7 4 4.2 3.3 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 40469.00 44397 40920 40700 39189 51500 RUB/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 7500.00 7500 8900 8900 8900 10100 RUB/Month [+]
Population 146.80 147 148 148 148 152 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 57 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 62 [+]
Living Wage Family 33965.10 36000 36700 37000 34306 40000 RUB/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 35518.60 36300 36500 37000 34705 39200 RUB/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 38600.00 41000 42800 42800 42800 45700 RUB/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 13100.00 14700 15200 15200 15200 17600 RUB/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.00 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 547.10 540 550 574 570 649 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.30 101 100 100 101 100 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.80 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 103.52 104 106 108 110 125 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 640.60 650 667 670 690 756 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.80 6.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 4.1 percent [+]
Food Inflation 1.60 2.8 3.4 4 4.2 4.5 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 8.50 8 7.5 7 7 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 8.79 8.5 8.5 8 8 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 8066.70 8150 8300 8450 8600 10500 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 18076.43 20000 21200 22300 23800 31400 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 39420.10 42300 43000 44000 44800 52200 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 424766.00 424000 426000 430000 433612 452000 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2103.00 2510 2500 2570 2060 3340 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 22687439.00 22925672 22976010 22983137 22959576 22266381 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.01 7 7 7 7 6 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00 7 7 7 7 5 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 6612.00 10500 8100 10900 7025 10200 USD Million [+]
Exports 28966.00 32700 28800 31800 27212 37100 USD Million [+]
Imports 22354.00 22200 20700 20900 20454 26900 USD Million [+]
Current Account 1200.00 14800 24500 15100 5854 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 537.50 522 538 540 536 628 USD Billion [+]
Capital Flows 5064.87 8721 10100 10100 8714 14200 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 1715.84 1808 1804 1850 1915 2103 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 10543.00 10600 10500 10100 10434 10800 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 5406.00 5130 4200 5000 4750 5920 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 [+]
Weapons Sales 6432.00 6500 7000 7000 6474 8500 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 4646.00 24580 7800 21100 7250 9690 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 17.00 19.4 21.2 21.2 21.2 24 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.70 -2.5 -2 -2 -2 -1.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -300.62 -2400 -220 -470 -880 -1420 RUB Billion [+]
Government Spending 3892.60 2700 3940 3960 2710 2980 RUB Billion [+]
Government Revenues 19641085.60 29966453 7265653 15809672 7487145 40241351 RUB Million [+]
Government Debt 11510.30 12963 13200 13200 11483 18168 RUB Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 19240416.80 32433201 7251924 16582035 7257725 41609527 RUB Million [+]
Military Expenditure 70345.10 97919 100654 100654 72180 107654 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence -3.00 2 -1 2 -3.31 6 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.90 51.5 51.3 52.2 50.87 53.5 [+]
Services PMI 55.20 54 53.8 55.5 53.25 56.2 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.90 2.7 2.4 1.9 2.87 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.00 6.1 9.8 2 2.2 4.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.10 1.8 2.1 1.3 3.58 4.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 65.00 65 65 65 64.62 66 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 853.90 -750 52 250 1200 -520 RUB Billion [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 148371.00 148581 142031 137778 157048 197696 [+]
Car Production 108.90 105 126 128 105 158 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 148371.00 155800 151500 132560 157042 198000 [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.30 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.12 2.1 percent [+]
Mining Production -0.10 3.1 2.1 2 1.99 4.2 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 61.50 60.2 52.87 52.87 52.87 62 [+]
Steel Production 5600.00 6280 6200 6060 5415 6300 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 6.33 3.3 3.9 6.6 5.52 3.8 Millions of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.64 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.78 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 38.00 43 42 42 42 39 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.80 52.5 52.5 53.8 52.62 54.5 [+]
Bankruptcies 3080.00 3200 3200 1800 2737 3090 [+]
Corporate Profits 5589.80 15200 1300 8500 8550 21070 RUB Billion [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 33 35 35 25 40 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 128 120 120 123 110 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 40.00 45 38 38 47 33 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -11.00 -8 -9 -7 -6 -4 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 3.80 21 5.8 1.3 -0.77 22.8 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.10 1.6 2.1 3.1 3.66 5.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11047.70 7900 10850 11220 7640 8560 RUB Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 11193042.00 11000000 11200000 11200000 12256291 12000000 RUB Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 33880481.00 34611741 34876868 35040307 35120958 33975283 RUB Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.63 9.5 9.3 9.1 23.6 7.5 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 68.30 75 77.45 78.15 78.74 89 [+]
Disposable Personal Income -0.40 2.3 1.7 2.9 2.5 4.8 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.70 0.74 0.76 0.75 0.69 0.9 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index -0.40 1.5 2 2 2 3 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 87.10 84 84.2 84.2 85.88 84.3 percent [+]
Construction Output 3.80 0.8 2.9 5 3.63 6 percent [+]
Housing Starts 6.30 17.2 5.3 5.3 4.32 20.1 Million Sq Meter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00 13 13 13 13 13 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]