Russia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.38 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.70 5.2 5.3 5.5 4.8 5.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.40 2.4 3.2 4 4.2 4.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 6.75 6.75 6.5 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 15316.00 9200 11100 10200 11000 10900 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 12.60 21.2 21.2 21.2 22 24 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 63.07
59.28 60.81 62.38 63.99 70.86
Stock Market 2258.02
points
2179 2108 2040 1973 1728
Government Bond 10Y 7.68
percent
7.19 7.34 7.49 7.64 8.29
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.38
percent
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30
percent
1.2 1.5 1.7 1 2.3
GDP 1283.20
USD Billion
1460 1304 1460 1500 1590
GDP Constant Prices 19992.50
RUB Billion
21393 22935 24126 20192 25298
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7490.40
RUB Billion
4240 4491 7618 7565 7988
GDP per capita 11099.20
USD
11700 12000 12000 12150 12270
GDP per capita PPP 24026.00
USD
24901 24901 24901 25408 25945
Gross National Product 65166840.30
RUB Million
65557841 65655592 66274677 65818509 69493969
GDP From Agriculture 447.20
RUB Billion
674 1553 1004 452 1053
GDP From Construction 712.80
RUB Billion
1117 1372 1760 720 1846
GDP From Manufacturing 2188.80
RUB Billion
2551 2690 3020 2211 3167
GDP From Mining 1878.60
RUB Billion
1917 1816 1929 1897 2023
GDP From Public Administration 1612.80
RUB Billion
1593 1601 1618 1629 1697
GDP From Transport 1347.30
RUB Billion
1398 1453 1420 1361 1489
GDP From Utilities 656.70
RUB Billion
501 461 649 663 681
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.70
percent
5.2 5.3 5.5 4.8 5.8
Employed Persons 72.30
Million
72.3 72.8 72.5 71.7 72.7
Unemployed Persons 3.60
Million
3.7 3.8 3.9 3.65 4.2
Employment Rate 59.60
percent
66.3 66.22 65.9 62.05 66.2
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70
percent
69.7 67.98 69.4 65.33 69.7
Productivity -0.20
percent
1.2 1.2 1.2 0.17 2
Job Offers 1526865.00
Persons
1412007 1356374 1525690 1451166 1600369
Wages 43550.00
RUB/Month
42500 40000 53000 42000 56500
Wages in Manufacturing 39826.00
RUB/Month
42500 39000 42000 42600 51000
Wage Growth 7.30
percent
4 4.2 4.2 5.52 3.3
Minimum Wages 11163.00
RUB/Month
11163 11163 11163 12000 12000
Population 146.88
Million
147 147 147 147 148
Retirement Age Women 55.00
55 55 55 55 57
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 62
Wages Low Skilled 18300.00
RUB/Month
15200 15200 15200 19500 20000
Wages High Skilled 46100.00
RUB/Month
42800 42800 42800 46800 47000
Living Wage Family 28300.00
RUB/Month
29700 29700 29700 31100 31100
Living Wage Individual 20400.00
RUB/Month
37000 20400 37000 20400 39200
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.40
percent
2.4 3.2 4 4.2 4.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 560.10
Index Points
563 564 573 579 623
Core Consumer Prices 100.20
Index Points
102 102 102 102 109
Core Inflation Rate 2.00
percent
1.8 2 2.2 2.4 3.1
GDP Deflator 111.24
Index Points
108 110 112 111 125
Producer Prices 659.70
Index Points
650 668 688 651 736
Producer Prices Change 12.00
percent
5 4.2 4 3.8 3.2
Food Inflation 0.90
percent
1.5 2 2.2 2.5 4.5
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7.25 6.75 6.75 6.5 5.5
Interbank Rate 7.22
percent
7.22 6.72 6.72 6.47 5.47
Money Supply M0 8712.30
RUB Billion
8450 8500 8450 8356 8600
Money Supply M1 19757.62
RUB Billion
19300 19800 19600 19741 21400
Money Supply M2 43121.70
RUB Billion
43000 43800 44600 46095 49200
Foreign Exchange Reserves 456640.00
USD Million
460000 470000 475000 480000 510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2256.20
RUB Billion
2150 1973 2130 1882 2040
Loans to Private Sector 25443198.00
RUB Million
25000498 25438307 25776018 25959214 29421346
Deposit Interest Rate 7.01
percent
7.01 6.51 6.51 6.26 5.26
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 5
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 15316.00
USD Million
9200 11100 10200 11000 10900
Exports 36245.00
USD Million
33800 36200 40100 38400 49800
Imports 20929.00
USD Million
24600 25100 29900 27400 38900
Current Account 28800.00
USD Million
5100 4500 15200 19500 12000
Current Account to GDP 1.80
percent
2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.2
External Debt 524.90
USD Billion
540 538 547 538 628
Capital Flows 8300.00
USD Million
10100 6940 12600 8452 14200
Gold Reserves 1909.80
Tonnes
1890 2010 2030 2045 2150
Crude Oil Production 10552.00
BBL/D/1K
10500 10556 10600 10556 10800
Terrorism Index 5.33
5.43 5.43 5.43 6.15 5.43
Weapons Sales 6148.00
USD Million
7000 6148 7000 6148 8500
Remittances 440.00
USD Million
360 350 350 356 400
Foreign Direct Investment 4300.00
USD Million
1100 3250 5600 10247 10000
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 12.60
percent
21.2 21.2 21.2 22 24
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6
Government Budget Value 458.89
RUB Billion
-772363 33626 -2114093 -94491 -1368176
Government Spending 3974.60
RUB Billion
3973 3972 4042 4014 4239
Government Revenues 10831922.40
RUB Million
15809672 15860246 33562428 15314921 40241351
Government Debt 11559.70
RUB Billion
13200 12124 14818 12166 18168
Fiscal Expenditure 10032791.10
RUB Million
16582035 15826620 35676521 15409412 41609527
Military Expenditure 55327.20
USD Million
62000 62000 62000 65000 70000
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence -2.00
Index Points
-1 -1 -2 0 6
Manufacturing PMI 49.80
51.4 52.1 52 52.6 53.5
Services PMI 54.10
Index Points
55.5 55.03 55.6 54.94 56.2
Industrial Production 3.70
percent
1.9 2.6 3.5 3.2 5.2
Industrial Production Mom 1.50
percent
2 2.2 6.4 0.43 4.2
Manufacturing Production 5.40
percent
1.3 5.13 3 5.18 4.8
Capacity Utilization 64.00
percent
65 64 64 64 66
Changes in Inventories -1032.70
RUB Billion
250 1200 -620 1546 -520
Total Vehicle Sales 147525.00
137778 150997 163439 150412 197696
Car Production 124.80
Thousand Units
128 135 114 125 158
Car Registrations 147525.00
152560 150297 170000 165000 178000
Leading Economic Index 2.10
percent
1.5 1.5 2 2.2 2.1
Internet Speed 11846.17
KBps
11754 11708 11696 11712 11684
IP Addresses 19163474.00
IP
18644585 18616502 19075455 19078991 18989703
Steel Production 6030.00
Thousand Tonnes
6060 5908 6310 5918 6300
Mining Production 1.30
percent
2 1.61 2.9 1.61 4.2
Cement Production 2.73
Millions of Tonnes
6.6 5.6 3.4 5 3.8
Competitiveness Index 4.64
Points
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.57 4.78
Competitiveness Rank 38.00
42 42 42 40 39
Composite Pmi 53.40
53.8 54.3 53 54.27 54.5
Bankruptcies 3680.00
Companies
3500 3286 3270 2812 3090
Corporate Profits 2531.10
RUB Billion
4700 7100 12500 2700 19700
Corruption Index 29.00
Points
30 30 30 27 28
Corruption Rank 135.00
120 135 120 135 110
Ease of Doing Business 35.00
38 40 38 39 33
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.00
Index Points
-7 -6 -6 -7 -4
Retail Sales MoM 1.50
percent
1.3 0.63 23.7 0.76 22.8
Retail Sales YoY 2.40
percent
3.1 2.44 2.7 2.44 5.4
Consumer Spending 12420.80
RUB Billion
11286 12076 12632 12545 13246
Consumer Credit 12697540.00
RUB Million
11200000 13602364 11400000 14497374 12000000
Private Sector Credit 38140738.00
RUB Million
39026348 40280104 41353197 42281097 47021353
Bank Lending Rate 8.92
percent
8.92 8.42 8.42 8.17 7.17
Disposable Personal Income 5.70
percent
2.9 2.5 2.9 1.5 4.8
Households Debt To Gdp 16.20
Percent
16.55 16.79 17.02 17.15 18.31
Gasoline Prices 0.72
USD/Liter
0.72 0.68 0.64 0.6 0.42
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 1.00
percent
2 2 2 2.5 3
Construction Output 1.40
percent
5 0.16 5.8 0.23 6
Housing Starts 4.50
Million Sq Meter
5.3 6.67 17.5 6.71 20.1
Home Ownership Rate 87.30
percent
84 84 84 85 85
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 20 20
Social Security Rate 47.50
percent
47.5 47.5 47.5 46 30
Social Security Rate For Companies 47.50
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 30.73
mm
36.16 58.25 29.88 18.18 36.4
Temperature -20.43
celsius
3.17 11.08 -14.87 -21.58 -5.65