Russia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.08 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.20 5 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.20 3 3.1 3.2 3.4 4 percent
Interest Rate 7.50 7.25 6.75 6.5 6 5 percent
Balance of Trade 13700.00 8100 10900 12224 9400 10200 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 12.60 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 24 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 56.38
57.95 59.5 61.09 62.72 69.7
Stock Market 2256.01
points
2183 2111 2042 1974 1510
Government Bond 10Y 7.04
percent
7.37 7.52 7.68 7.84 8.52
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.08
percent
0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80
percent
2.7 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.3
GDP 1283.20
USD Billion
1460 1460 1167 1460 1590
GDP Constant Prices 22899.80
RUB Billion
19600 21200 22800 24100 25100
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4538.00
RUB Billion
3020 4400 2800 4500 4900
GDP per capita 11099.20
USD
11700 11700 11700 12000 12270
GDP per capita PPP 24026.00
USD
24901 24901 24901 24901 25945
Gross National Product 65166840.30
RUB Million
80000000 80000000 80000000 80000000 101500000
GDP From Agriculture 1624.60
RUB Billion
440 670 1600 1200 1600
GDP From Construction 1298.40
RUB Billion
750 1090 1410 1860 2050
GDP From Manufacturing 2726.80
RUB Billion
2200 2650 2810 3600 4010
GDP From Mining 1948.70
RUB Billion
1850 1990 2000 2150 2500
GDP From Public Administration 1527.20
RUB Billion
1580 1590 1570 1710 2000
GDP From Transport 1371.80
RUB Billion
1280 1340 1370 1450 1600
GDP From Utilities 471.70
RUB Billion
628 484 488 686 697
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.20
percent
5 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.8
Employed Persons 72.40
Million
71.7 72.9 71.98 73.2 73.1
Unemployed Persons 3.92
Million
3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.2
Employment Rate 65.80
percent
65.2 66.3 65.26 65.9 66.2
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.30
percent
68.8 69.7 69.14 69.4 69.7
Productivity -0.20
percent
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 2
Job Offers 1392177.00
Persons
1242007 1242007 1426375 1485690 1680370
Wages 50500.00
RUB/Month
40275 44429 43077 52328 58791
Wages in Manufacturing 38168.00
RUB/Month
40920 40700 37922 47061 51500
Wage Growth 6.20
percent
3.7 4 4.2 4.2 3.3
Minimum Wages 11163.00
RUB/Month
9489 11163 11163 11163 12000
Population 146.80
Million
148 148 148 148 152
Retirement Age Women 55.00
55 55 55 55 57
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 62
Wages Low Skilled 18300.00
RUB/Month
15200 15200 15200 15200 17600
Wages High Skilled 46100.00
RUB/Month
42800 42800 42800 42800 45700
Living Wage Family 28300.00
RUB/Month
36700 37000 27671 37000 40000
Living Wage Individual 20400.00
RUB/Month
36500 37000 20013 37000 39200
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
3 3.1 3.2 3.4 4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 552.00
Index Points
550 574 570 561 649
Core Consumer Prices 100.20
Index Points
100 100 101 101 100
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.1
GDP Deflator 104.95
Index Points
106 108 110 112 125
Producer Prices 662.60
Index Points
667 670 690 690 756
Producer Prices Change 5.00
percent
5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 4.1
Food Inflation 0.70
percent
1 1.5 2 2.2 4.5
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.50
percent
7.25 6.75 6.5 6 5
Interbank Rate 7.52
percent
8.5 8 8 7.5 6.5
Money Supply M0 8446.00
RUB Billion
8300 8450 8600 8850 10500
Money Supply M1 19508.70
RUB Billion
21200 22300 23800 25600 31400
Money Supply M2 42440.50
RUB Billion
43000 44000 44800 45600 52200
Foreign Exchange Reserves 447735.00
USD Million
426000 430000 433612 438000 452000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1549.90
RUB Billion
2500 2570 1872 2655 3340
Loans to Private Sector 24033477.00
RUB Million
24719967 25027878 25218299 25323901 24560711
Deposit Interest Rate 7.01
percent
7 7 7 7 6
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00
percent
7 7 7 6 5
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 13700.00
USD Million
8100 10900 12224 9400 10200
Exports 37860.00
USD Million
28800 31800 35306 34300 37100
Imports 24160.00
USD Million
20700 20900 22078 24900 26900
Current Account 17800.00
USD Million
24500 15100 4409 26600 22000
Current Account to GDP 1.80
percent
2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2
External Debt 529.10
USD Billion
538 540 512 547 628
Capital Flows -3792.60
USD Million
10100 10100 7077 12600 14200
Gold Reserves 1828.56
Tonnes
1804 1850 1947 1979 2155
Crude Oil Production 10527.00
BBL/D/1K
10500 10100 10468 10600 10800
Terrorism Index 5.33
5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43
Weapons Sales 6432.00
USD Million
7000 7000 6679 7000 8500
Remittances 359.00
USD Million
360 360 350 350 400
Foreign Direct Investment 7333.00
USD Million
7800 21100 7250 28600 9690
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 12.60
percent
21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 24
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP
-1 -1 -1 -1 0.2
Government Budget Value -1336.37
RUB Billion
-220 -470 -880 -2000 -1420
Government Spending 3908.40
RUB Billion
3940 3960 2710 2780 2980
Government Revenues 27268666.90
RUB Million
7265653 15809672 9882040 33562428 40241351
Government Debt 11854.20
RUB Billion
13200 13200 11862 14818 18168
Fiscal Expenditure 26898382.10
RUB Million
7251924 16582035 10059973 35676521 41609527
Military Expenditure 70345.10
USD Million
100654 100654 70428 71534 107654
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence -3.00
Index Points
-1 2 -2.69 3 6
Manufacturing PMI 52.10
51.3 52.2 51.15 52 53.5
Services PMI 55.10
Index Points
53.8 55.5 53.49 55.6 56.2
Industrial Production 2.90
percent
2.4 1.9 2.98 3.5 5.2
Industrial Production Mom -20.40
percent
9.8 2 2.2 6.4 4.2
Manufacturing Production 4.70
percent
2.1 1.3 3.99 3 4.8
Capacity Utilization 64.00
percent
65 65 64.24 64 66
Changes in Inventories 2239.10
RUB Billion
52 250 1200 -620 -520
Total Vehicle Sales 102464.00
142031 137778 138408 163439 197696
Car Production 105.40
Thousand Units
126 128 112 114 158
Car Registrations 102464.00
151500 132560 138396 159000 198000
Leading Economic Index -0.30
percent
1.6 1.8 0.47 2 2.1
Internet Speed 11846.17
KBps
11423 11289 11162 11029 9997
IP Addresses 19163474.00
IP
18660508 18351391 18428239 18387115 16983211
Mining Production 1.10
percent
2.1 2 1.71 2.9 4.2
Steel Production 5930.00
Thousand Tonnes
6200 6060 5712 6310 6300
Cement Production 2.90
Millions of Tonnes
3.9 6.6 6.09 3.4 3.8
Competitiveness Index 4.64
Points
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.78
Competitiveness Rank 38.00
42 42 42 42 39
Composite Pmi 54.80
52.5 53.8 52.86 53 54.5
Bankruptcies 3227.00
Companies
3200 1800 2886 2670 3090
Corporate Profits 9414.60
RUB Billion
1300 8500 8550 17550 21070
Corruption Index 29.00
Points
35 35 26 35 40
Corruption Rank 131.00
120 120 120 120 110
Ease of Doing Business 35.00
38 38 40 38 33
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -11.00
Index Points
-9 -7 -6 -6 -4
Retail Sales MoM -25.00
percent
5.8 1.3 -0.49 23.7 22.8
Retail Sales YoY 2.80
percent
2.1 3.1 3.54 2.7 5.4
Consumer Spending 11786.80
RUB Billion
10850 11220 7640 8000 8560
Consumer Credit 11887962.00
RUB Million
11200000 11200000 13179188 11400000 12000000
Private Sector Credit 35921439.00
RUB Million
37293510 38046200 38611933 39022439 38286804
Bank Lending Rate 9.73
percent
9.3 9.1 17.7 8.8 7.5
Disposable Personal Income 0.00
percent
1.7 2.9 2.5 2.9 4.8
Gasoline Prices 0.74
USD/Liter
0.76 0.75 0.72 0.79 0.9
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index -0.40
percent
2 2 2 2 3
Home Ownership Rate 87.10
percent
84.2 84.2 83.04 84.2 84.3
Construction Output 1.30
percent
2.9 5 2.24 5.8 6
Housing Starts 18.20
Million Sq Meter
5.3 5.3 4.61 17.5 20.1
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 47.50
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Companies 47.50
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 30.73
mm
18.14 36.16 58.25 29.88 36.4
Temperature -20.43
celsius
-21.53 3.17 11.08 -14.87 -5.65