Russia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.60 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.5 5.1 percent
Inflation Rate 3.40 4 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.5 6.75 6.5 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 15797.00 15200 11000 9000 9800 10900 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 12.60 21.2 22 22 22 24 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 65.64
66.06 66.77 67.48 68.2 71.17
Stock Market 2389.05
points
2440 2407 2374 2342 2217
Government Bond 10Y 8.67
percent
8.65 8.74 8.82 8.9 9.25
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90
percent
1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 2
GDP 1577.52
USD Billion
1650 1750 1750 1750 1820
GDP Constant Prices 21678.60
RUB Billion
24126 20272 22004 21939 24978
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4257.20
RUB Billion
7618 3122 4321 4308 7887
GDP per capita 11441.00
USD
11700 12100 12100 12100 12500
GDP per capita PPP 24765.95
USD
24900 25400 25400 25400 25900
GDP From Agriculture 671.80
RUB Billion
1004 453 682 680 1039
GDP From Construction 1119.10
RUB Billion
1760 723 1136 1133 1823
GDP From Manufacturing 2606.10
RUB Billion
3020 2219 2645 2637 3127
GDP From Mining 1954.20
RUB Billion
1929 1905 1984 1978 1997
GDP From Public Administration 1627.10
RUB Billion
1618 1635 1652 1647 1675
GDP From Transport 1444.10
RUB Billion
1420 1366 1466 1461 1470
GDP From Utilities 498.40
RUB Billion
649 666 506 504 672
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.60
percent
4.3 4.2 4.4 4.5 5.1
Employed Persons 73.40
Million
72.5 71.7 72.2 72.4 72.7
Unemployed Persons 3.51
Million
3.9 3.71 3.69 3.7 4.2
Employment Rate 60.50
percent
61 61 61 62 62
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.40
percent
64 64 64 65 65
Productivity 1.50
percent
1.2 1.01 0.81 0.6 2
Job Offers 1738477.00
Persons
1525690 1451166 1557134 1601119 1600369
Wages 41140.00
RUB/Month
53000 42000 42800 42500 56500
Wage Growth 7.00
percent
4.2 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.2
Wages in Manufacturing 41126.00
RUB/Month
42000 42600 44700 40200 51000
Minimum Wages 11163.00
RUB/Month
11163 12000 12000 12000 12000
Population 146.90
Million
147 147 147 147 148
Retirement Age Women 55.00
55 55 55 55 57
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 62
Wages High Skilled 46100.00
RUB/Month
46800 47800 47800 47800 49000
Wages Low Skilled 18300.00
RUB/Month
19200 20500 20500 20500 21000
Living Wage Family 28300.00
RUB/Month
29700 31100 31100 31100 32200
Living Wage Individual 20400.00
RUB/Month
21000 22300 22300 22300 24500
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.40
percent
4 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 565.50
Index Points
573 579 588 593 627
Core Consumer Prices 100.50
Index Points
100 101 100 100 100
Core Inflation Rate 2.80
percent
2.8 3 3.6 3.2 2.9
GDP Deflator 114.61
Index Points
116 118 119 120 125
Producer Prices 685.60
Index Points
690 668 717 758 756
Producer Prices Change 15.30
percent
8.5 6.5 5.1 4.5 3.2
Food Inflation 2.50
percent
2.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.50
percent
7.5 7.5 6.75 6.5 5.5
Interbank Rate 7.60
percent
7.6 7.6 6.85 6.6 5.6
Money Supply M0 9149.90
RUB Billion
8450 8356 9217 9148 8600
Money Supply M1 20596.29
RUB Billion
19600 20589 20720 20592 21400
Money Supply M2 44369.10
RUB Billion
44600 46424 47298 48167 49200
Foreign Exchange Reserves 459163.00
USD Million
475000 480000 485000 494000 510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2461.30
RUB Billion
2130 1882 1881 1870 2040
Loans to Private Sector 25819672.00
RUB Million
25776018 25959214 26234164 27346932 29421346
Deposit Interest Rate 5.13
percent
5.13 5.13 4.38 4.13 3.13
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 7
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 15797.00
USD Million
15200 11000 9000 9800 10900
Exports 37436.00
USD Million
45100 38400 37900 36200 49800
Imports 21639.00
USD Million
29900 27400 28900 26400 38900
Current Account 26400.00
USD Million
15200 32500 25100 11700 16000
Current Account to GDP 2.20
percent
5.5 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.2
External Debt 467.10
USD Billion
547 457 447 444 628
Capital Flows 20971.51
USD Million
12600 12617 12991 11587 14200
Gold Reserves 1998.50
Tonnes
2030 2045 2060 2060 2150
Crude Oil Production 10663.00
BBL/D/1K
10600 10702 10703 10704 10800
Terrorism Index 5.33
5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33
Weapons Sales 6148.00
USD Million
7000 5838 5804 5770 8500
Remittances 408.00
USD Million
350 387 408 387 400
Foreign Direct Investment 2583.00
USD Million
5600 6732 5247 5965 10000
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 12.60
percent
21.2 22 22 22 24
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP
0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6
Government Budget Value 2548.22
RUB Billion
-1000 900 1600 700 -800
Government Spending 3972.90
RUB Billion
4042 4015 4032 4021 4185
Government Revenues 23461952.10
RUB Million
32200000 8400000 18100000 24300000 34600000
Government Debt 11618.80
RUB Billion
14818 12002 12147 12227 18168
Fiscal Expenditure 20462611.50
RUB Million
33200000 7500000 16500000 23600000 35400000
Military Expenditure 55327.20
USD Million
62000 65000 65000 54124 70000
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence -3.00
Index Points
-2 0 0 1 6
Manufacturing PMI 50.00
52 52.6 53 52.5 53.5
Services PMI 54.70
Index Points
54.6 54.7 54.4 53.6 54
Industrial Production 2.10
percent
3.5 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.2
Industrial Production Mom 2.50
percent
6.4 12.5 -0.4 2.5 4.2
Manufacturing Production -0.10
percent
3 0.63 2.9 2.5 2.9
Capacity Utilization 65.00
percent
64 64 64 64.99 66
Changes in Inventories 935.10
RUB Billion
-620 250 985 1550 -520
Total Vehicle Sales 157371.00
163439 152704 161709 152746 197696
Car Production 121.60
Thousand Units
114 125 130 123 158
Car Registrations 157371.00
170000 165000 155000 152754 178000
Leading Economic Index 1.00
percent
1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.6
Internet Speed 11846.17
KBps
11696 11712 11709 11695 11684
IP Addresses 19163474.00
IP
19075455 19078991 18678671 18669577 18989703
Mining Production 6.90
percent
2.9 4.8 4.25 3.86 4.2
Steel Production 6170.00
Thousand Tonnes
6310 6167 6165 6166 6300
Cement Production 6.38
Millions of Tonnes
3.4 5 7 5.45 3.8
Competitiveness Index 4.64
Points
4.64 4.64 4.64 4.64 4.64
Competitiveness Rank 38.00
38 38 38 38 38
Composite Pmi 53.50
53 53.6 54 53.8 54.5
Bankruptcies 3680.00
Companies
3270 3420 3250 3160 3090
Corporate Profits 7578.70
RUB Billion
12500 2700 5000 9500 19700
Corruption Index 29.00
Points
29 29 29 29 29
Corruption Rank 135.00
135 135 135 135 135
Ease of Doing Business 35.00
34 33 33 33 32
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -14.00
Index Points
-6 -7 -7 -6 -4
Retail Sales MoM 3.60
percent
23.7 7.5 2 -1.6 22.8
Retail Sales YoY 2.80
percent
2.7 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.9
Consumer Spending 11505.40
RUB Billion
12632 11303 11678 11643 13078
Consumer Credit 13466674.00
RUB Million
11400000 15281174 15855978 16381574 12000000
Private Sector Credit 39286346.00
RUB Million
41242194 42229442 43088954 43838159 47440320
Bank Lending Rate 8.80
percent
8.88 8.88 8.13 7.88 6.88
Disposable Personal Income -0.90
percent
-1 -1.2 -0.6 -0.4 1
Households Debt To Gdp 16.50
percent of GDP
17.27 17.48 17.67 17.85 18.91
Gasoline Prices 0.69
USD/Liter
0.79 0.6 0.56 0.52 0.9
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 1.00
percent
2 2.5 2.5 2.5 3
Construction Output -0.80
percent
0.5 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.7
Home Ownership Rate 87.30
percent
84 85 85 85 85
Housing Starts 5.20
Million Sq Meter
17.5 5.5 5.7 5.6 20.1
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Companies 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 30.73
mm
29.88 18.18 36.98 36.45 36.4
Temperature -20.43
celsius
-14.87 -21.58 10.49 2.3 -5.65