Russia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Russia's economy is expected to return to growth in 2017, ending two years of contraction, amid rising oil prices and a recovery in industrial output. Consumer expenditure is estimated to restore only gradually as real disposable income continues to show weak growth. Inflation slowed down substantially and is forecasted to remain close to the government target of 4%. Monetary conditions will stay moderately tight and the central bank is expected to cut rates only two more times this year. The labor market is adjusting to the new economic environment and the jobless rate will likely remain at a consistently low level. The fiscal deficit is estimated to narrow to 2.5%-2%, driven by higher oil revenues and optimization of government expenditures. This page has economic forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.57 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.10 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.90 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.3 5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 9.00 9 8.5 8 7.5 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 8690.00 8300 10500 8100 10900 10200 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 17.00 19.4 19.4 21.2 21.2 24 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 58.90 59.93 60.53 61.12 61.71 68.24 [+]
Stock Market 1930.71 1900 1880 1860 1840 1630 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.79 7.78 7.85 7.93 8.01 8.86 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.57 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 1.3 1.5 1 1.3 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 1283.20 1400 1400 1460 1460 1590 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 19555.20 16054 16818 13726 15100 17742 RUB Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2996.40 2780 4252 1880 2600 4500 RUB Billion [+]
GDP per capita 11099.20 11500 11500 11700 11700 12270 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24026.00 24367 24448 24901 24901 25945 USD [+]
Gross National Product 65166840.30 7800000 7800000 85900000 85900000 101500000 RUB Million [+]
GDP From Agriculture 617.30 1100 700 350 510 1000 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 1283.90 1040 1290 590 880 1410 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1997.80 1860 2020 1860 1910 2260 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 1263.10 1290 1310 1300 1290 1470 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 874.30 890 900 920 960 1030 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 1126.80 1120 1140 970 1080 1290 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 507.40 400 530 550 450 640 RUB Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.10 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 72.10 73.2 73 71.7 72.9 73.1 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 3.91 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.2 4.6 Million [+]
Employment Rate 65.50 66.1 65.8 65.2 66.3 66.2 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.90 69.7 69.8 68.8 69.7 69.7 percent [+]
Productivity -2.20 1.5 1.8 1.44 1.44 2 percent [+]
Job Offers 1619980.00 1412982 1329953 1242007 1242007 1680370 Persons [+]
Wages 39355.00 38710 49932 40275 44429 58791 RUB/Month [+]
Wage Growth 4.60 2.1 1.6 1.8 2.1 3.3 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 38565.00 38676 44397 40920 40700 51500 RUB/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 7500.00 8900 8900 8900 8900 10100 RUB/Month [+]
Population 146.50 148 148 152 152 155 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 57 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 62 [+]
Living Wage Family 33965.10 35900 36000 36700 37000 40000 RUB/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 35518.60 36100 36300 36500 37000 39200 RUB/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 38600.00 41000 41000 42800 42800 45700 RUB/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 13100.00 14500 14700 15000 15200 17600 RUB/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.90 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 550.80 558 565 574 574 649 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.10 100 101 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.30 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 102.74 150 153 155 157 172 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 616.40 640 650 667 670 756 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.80 6.4 6.6 5.2 5.4 4.1 percent [+]
Food Inflation 3.80 3 3.4 3.9 4 4.5 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 9.00 9 8.5 8 7.5 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 8.75 9 9 8.5 8.3 6.3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7946.80 7900 8000 8090 8120 8700 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 18040.36 19300 20000 21200 22300 31400 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 39625.40 41000 42300 43000 44000 52200 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 418900.00 418000 424000 426000 430000 452000 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2282.20 2480 2510 2500 2570 3340 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 22496744.00 22678388 22847357 23008395 23161816 24348916 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.19 8 8 7 7 6 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00 7 7 7 7 5 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 8690.00 8300 10500 8100 10900 10200 USD Million [+]
Exports 29518.00 27900 32700 28800 31800 37100 USD Million [+]
Imports 20828.00 19600 22200 20700 20900 26900 USD Million [+]
Current Account -300.00 10700 14800 24500 15100 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2 2 2.1 2.1 2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 529.60 525 522 538 540 628 USD Billion [+]
Capital Flows 22108.98 8800 7775 10100 10100 14200 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 1680.10 1790 1844 1804 1850 2445 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 10603.00 10500 10600 10500 10100 10800 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 5410.00 4600 5130 4200 5000 5920 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 5.43 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.5 [+]
Weapons Sales 6432.00 6500 6500 7000 7000 8500 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 21202.00 18500 24580 7800 21100 9690 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 17.00 19.4 19.4 21.2 21.2 24 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.70 -2.5 -2.5 -2 -2 -1.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -423.71 170033 -2466748 13728 -772363 -1368176 RUB Million [+]
Government Spending 3875.50 2680 2720 2700 2730 2840 RUB Billion [+]
Government Revenues 14507547.20 21893229 29966453 7265653 15809672 40241351 RUB Million [+]
Government Debt 11158.50 125224 12963 13200 13200 18168 RUB Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 14443016.30 21723196 32433201 7251924 16582035 41609527 RUB Million [+]
Military Expenditure 70345.10 97919 97919 100654 100654 107654 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence -1.00 1 2 -1 2 6 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.70 52.4 51.5 51.3 52.2 53.5 [+]
Services PMI 52.60 55 54 53.8 55.5 56.2 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.10 3.1 2.7 2.4 1.9 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.50 2.1 7.4 9.8 3.5 6.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.80 2.8 1.8 2.1 1.3 4.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 66.00 64 65 65 65 66 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 11.40 1800 -1320 -62 -62 -737 RUB Billion [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 129685.00 131846 148581 142031 137778 197696 [+]
Car Production 120.50 108 105 126 128 158 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 129685.00 130590 155800 151500 132560 198000 [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.90 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.1 percent [+]
Mining Production 4.00 2.9 3.1 2.1 2 4.2 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 61.50 60.8 60.2 61.28 61.29 62 [+]
Steel Production 5341.00 5780 6280 6200 6060 6300 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 5.86 6 3.3 3.9 6.6 3.8 Millions of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.51 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.78 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 43.00 43 43 42 42 39 [+]
Composite Pmi 53.40 53.9 52.5 52.5 53.8 54.5 [+]
Bankruptcies 3080.00 2000 3200 3200 1800 3090 [+]
Corporate Profits 4025.20 8200 15200 1300 8500 21070 RUB Billion [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 33 33 35 35 40 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 128 128 120 120 110 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 40.00 45 45 38 38 33 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -14.00 -12 -8 -9 -7 -4 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 3.80 -0.6 21 5.8 1.3 22.8 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.00 0.8 1.6 2.1 3.1 5.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 10759.10 7500 7930 7090 7570 8450 RUB Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 10929131.00 10800000 11000000 11200000 11200000 12000000 RUB Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 33425875.00 34051819 34440188 34770539 35051537 36334232 RUB Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.83 10.5 9.5 9.3 9.1 7.5 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 68.30 77 75 70.39 70.38 89 [+]
Disposable Personal Income -0.40 -1.6 2.3 1.7 2.9 4.8 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.70 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.75 0.9 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index -0.40 2.2 4.08 4.7 4.7 6.2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 87.10 83.7 84 84.2 84.2 84.3 percent [+]
Construction Output 3.80 1.5 0.8 2.9 5 6 percent [+]
Housing Starts 5.40 6.9 17.2 5.3 5.3 20.1 Million Sq Meter [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00 13 13 13 13 13 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]