Russia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.38 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.40 2.4 3.2 4 4.2 4.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.25 6.75 6.25 5.75 5.5 5 percent
Balance of Trade 12192.00 9200 11100 10200 11000 10900 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 12.60 21.2 21.2 21.2 22 24 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 60.97
59.28 60.81 62.38 63.99 70.86
Stock Market 2230.55
points
2179 2108 2040 1973 1728
Government Bond 10Y 7.28
percent
7.19 7.34 7.49 7.64 8.29
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.38
percent
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.90
percent
1.2 1.5 1.7 1 2.3
GDP 1283.20
USD Billion
1460 1304 1460 1500 1590
GDP Constant Prices 23723.10
RUB Billion
21183 23186 24238 19594 25416
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7490.40
RUB Billion
4256 4595 4328 3002 4539
GDP per capita 11099.20
USD
11700 12000 12000 12150 12270
GDP per capita PPP 24026.00
USD
24901 24901 24901 25408 25945
Gross National Product 65166840.30
RUB Million
65557841 65655592 66142127 65818509 69354981
GDP From Agriculture 987.20
RUB Billion
675 1645 1033 432 1083
GDP From Construction 1731.00
RUB Billion
1094 1315 1687 741 1769
GDP From Manufacturing 2969.90
RUB Billion
2616 2747 3125 2177 3277
GDP From Mining 1897.10
RUB Billion
1882 1963 1962 1746 2057
GDP From Public Administration 1591.30
RUB Billion
1518 1539 1564 1534 1640
GDP From Transport 1396.00
RUB Billion
1293 1382 1329 1253 1394
GDP From Utilities 638.40
RUB Billion
481 475 685 629 718
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00
percent
5.2 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.8
Employed Persons 72.00
Million
72.3 72.8 72.5 71.7 72.7
Unemployed Persons 3.81
Million
3.7 3.8 3.9 3.89 4.2
Employment Rate 59.30
percent
66.3 64.79 65.9 64.56 66.2
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.50
percent
69.7 68.21 69.4 68.06 69.7
Productivity -0.20
percent
1.2 1.2 1.2 0.17 2
Job Offers 1410404.00
Persons
1712007 1756374 1525690 1451166 1600369
Wages 39800.00
RUB/Month
42500 40000 53000 42000 56500
Wages in Manufacturing 39800.00
RUB/Month
42500 39000 53000 40000 56000
Wage Growth 6.50
percent
4 4.2 4.2 5.66 3.3
Minimum Wages 11163.00
RUB/Month
11163 11163 11163 12000 12000
Population 146.88
Million
147 147 147 147 148
Retirement Age Women 55.00
55 55 55 55 57
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 62
Wages Low Skilled 18300.00
RUB/Month
15200 15200 15200 19500 20000
Wages High Skilled 46100.00
RUB/Month
42800 42800 42800 46800 47000
Living Wage Family 28300.00
RUB/Month
29700 29700 29700 31100 31100
Living Wage Individual 20400.00
RUB/Month
37000 20400 37000 20400 39200
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.40
percent
2.4 3.2 4 4.2 4.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 555.80
Index Points
563 564 573 578 623
Core Consumer Prices 100.10
Index Points
104 105 105 104 115
Core Inflation Rate 1.80
percent
4.4 4.5 4.6 4 5.1
GDP Deflator 107.50
Index Points
108 110 112 102 125
Producer Prices 627.30
Index Points
650 668 688 698 736
Producer Prices Change 4.80
percent
5 4.2 4 3.8 3.2
Food Inflation 1.10
percent
1.5 2 2.2 2.5 4.5
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.25
percent
6.75 6.25 5.75 5.5 5
Interbank Rate 7.07
percent
6.52 6.02 5.52 5.27 4.77
Money Supply M0 8301.00
RUB Billion
8450 8600 8850 8256 10500
Money Supply M1 19248.94
RUB Billion
22300 23800 25600 19353 31400
Money Supply M2 42045.60
RUB Billion
44000 44800 45600 45589 52200
Foreign Exchange Reserves 457995.00
USD Million
460000 470000 475000 480000 510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2068.00
RUB Billion
2150 1973 2130 1882 2040
Loans to Private Sector 24708082.00
RUB Million
25000498 25438307 25776018 25959214 29421346
Deposit Interest Rate 7.01
percent
6.01 5.51 5.01 4.76 4.26
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 5
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 12192.00
USD Million
9200 11100 10200 11000 10900
Exports 31197.00
USD Million
33800 36200 40100 38400 49800
Imports 19005.00
USD Million
24600 25100 29900 27400 38900
Current Account 28800.00
USD Million
5100 4500 15200 19500 12000
Current Account to GDP 1.80
percent
2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.2
External Debt 524.90
USD Billion
540 538 547 538 628
Capital Flows 8300.00
USD Million
10100 6940 12600 8452 14200
Gold Reserves 1857.70
Tonnes
1890 2010 2030 2045 2150
Crude Oil Production 10549.00
BBL/D/1K
10100 10528 10600 10589 10800
Terrorism Index 5.33
5.43 5.43 5.43 6.15 5.43
Weapons Sales 6148.00
USD Million
7000 6148 7000 6148 8500
Remittances 440.00
USD Million
360 350 350 356 400
Foreign Direct Investment 4300.00
USD Million
21100 7250 28600 10247 9690
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 12.60
percent
21.2 21.2 21.2 22 24
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP
-1 -1 -1 -0.6 0.2
Government Budget Value 344.35
RUB Billion
-772363 -556937 -2114093 410360 -1368176
Government Spending 3974.60
RUB Billion
3916 3938 2727 3914 2859
Government Revenues 4454955.20
RUB Million
15809672 15472723 33562428 18936879 40241351
Government Debt 11559.70
RUB Billion
13200 12124 14818 12166 18168
Fiscal Expenditure 4145726.40
RUB Million
16582035 16029661 35676521 18526519 41609527
Military Expenditure 70345.10
USD Million
100654 73993 76165 76877 107654
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence -2.00
Index Points
2 -3.07 3 -1.3 6
Manufacturing PMI 50.60
51.4 52.1 52 52.6 53.5
Services PMI 53.70
Index Points
55.5 55.25 55.6 54.71 56.2
Industrial Production 1.00
percent
1.9 2.6 3.5 3.2 5.2
Industrial Production Mom 12.10
percent
2 2.2 6.4 -0.79 4.2
Manufacturing Production -0.20
percent
1.3 2.24 3 -0.32 4.8
Capacity Utilization 62.00
percent
65 64 64 64 66
Changes in Inventories -1032.70
RUB Billion
250 1200 -620 1546 -520
Total Vehicle Sales 157279.00
137778 126297 163439 136588 197696
Car Production 124.80
Thousand Units
128 122 114 122 158
Car Registrations 157279.00
132560 126297 159000 136588 198000
Leading Economic Index 1.30
percent
1.5 1.5 2 2.2 2.1
Internet Speed 11846.17
KBps
11754 11708 11696 11712 11684
IP Addresses 19163474.00
IP
18644585 18616502 19075455 19078991 18989703
Steel Production 5150.00
Thousand Tonnes
6060 5366 6310 5384 6300
Mining Production 1.40
percent
2 1.48 2.9 2 4.2
Cement Production 2.73
Millions of Tonnes
6.6 5.48 3.4 3.71 3.8
Competitiveness Index 4.64
Points
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.57 4.78
Competitiveness Rank 38.00
42 42 42 40 39
Composite Pmi 53.20
53.8 54.55 53 54.92 54.5
Bankruptcies 3680.00
Companies
1800 2886 2670 2812 3090
Corporate Profits 1052.90
RUB Billion
4700 7100 12500 2700 19700
Corruption Index 29.00
Points
35 27 35 27 40
Corruption Rank 135.00
120 135 120 135 110
Ease of Doing Business 35.00
38 40 38 39 33
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.00
Index Points
-7 -6 -6 -7 -4
Retail Sales MoM 8.40
percent
1.3 -0.87 23.7 -0.97 22.8
Retail Sales YoY 2.00
percent
3.1 1.78 2.7 2.19 5.4
Consumer Spending 12420.80
RUB Billion
11114 11875 7984 10867 8372
Consumer Credit 12271922.00
RUB Million
11200000 11556297 11400000 10722011 12000000
Private Sector Credit 36980004.00
RUB Million
35500383 33829902 32961738 33561428 35027656
Bank Lending Rate 9.12
percent
9.1 9.41 8.8 10.25 7.5
Disposable Personal Income 4.10
percent
2.9 2.5 2.9 1.5 4.8
Households Debt To Gdp 16.00
Percent
16.35 16.58 16.68 16.76 17.57
Gasoline Prices 0.72
USD/Liter
0.65 0.61 0.57 0.65 0.38
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 1.00
percent
2 2 2 2.5 3
Construction Output -9.70
percent
5 -1.52 5.8 -1.41 6
Housing Starts 5.20
Million Sq Meter
5.3 7.02 17.5 6.98 20.1
Home Ownership Rate 87.30
percent
84 84 84 85 85
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 47.50
percent
47.5 47.5 47.5 46 30
Social Security Rate For Companies 47.50
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 30.73
mm
36.16 58.25 29.88 18.18 36.4
Temperature -20.43
celsius
3.17 11.08 -14.87 -21.58 -5.65