Russia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.85 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.70 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.1 percent
Inflation Rate 2.50 3.2 4 4.2 4.5 4.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 6.75 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 15555.00 11100 10200 11000 9000 10900 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 12.60 21.2 21.2 22 22 24 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 67.19
65.11 67.02 68.98 71.01 79.7
Stock Market 2273.63
points
2213 2125 2041 1960 1668
Government Bond 10Y 8.69
percent
7.91 8.1 8.29 8.49 9.34
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.85
percent
0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80
percent
1.5 1.7 1 1.5 2.3
GDP 1577.52
USD Billion
1650 1650 1750 1750 1820
GDP Constant Prices 19992.50
RUB Billion
22935 24126 20192 21584 25298
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3079.10
RUB Billion
4491 7618 3110 4278 7988
GDP per capita 11441.00
USD
11700 11700 12100 12100 12500
GDP per capita PPP 24765.95
USD
24900 24900 25400 25400 25900
Gross National Product 65166840.30
RUB Million
65655592 66274677 65818509 66144343 69493969
GDP From Agriculture 447.20
RUB Billion
1553 1004 452 680 1053
GDP From Construction 712.80
RUB Billion
1372 1760 720 1127 1846
GDP From Manufacturing 2188.80
RUB Billion
2690 3020 2211 2574 3167
GDP From Mining 1878.60
RUB Billion
1816 1929 1897 1934 2023
GDP From Public Administration 1612.80
RUB Billion
1601 1618 1629 1607 1697
GDP From Transport 1347.30
RUB Billion
1453 1420 1361 1411 1489
GDP From Utilities 656.70
RUB Billion
461 649 663 506 681
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.70
percent
4.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.1
Employed Persons 72.50
Million
72.8 72.5 71.7 72.2 72.7
Unemployed Persons 3.60
Million
3.8 3.9 3.57 3.55 4.2
Employment Rate 59.80
percent
60.8 65.9 61.19 61.13 66.2
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70
percent
63.14 69.4 63.33 63.33 69.7
Productivity -0.20
percent
1.2 1.2 0.17 0.19 2
Job Offers 1526865.00
Persons
1356374 1525690 1451166 1557134 1600369
Wages 42640.00
RUB/Month
40000 53000 42000 42800 56500
Wages in Manufacturing 40385.00
RUB/Month
39000 42000 42600 44700 51000
Wage Growth 8.00
percent
4.2 4.2 6.13 6.09 3.3
Minimum Wages 11163.00
RUB/Month
11163 11163 12000 12000 12000
Population 146.88
Million
147 147 147 147 148
Retirement Age Women 55.00
55 55 55 55 57
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 62
Wages Low Skilled 18300.00
RUB/Month
15200 15200 19500 14539 20000
Wages High Skilled 46100.00
RUB/Month
42800 42800 46800 39958 47000
Living Wage Family 28300.00
RUB/Month
29700 29700 31100 28296 31100
Living Wage Individual 20400.00
RUB/Month
20312 37000 20345 20357 39200
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50
percent
3.2 4 4.2 4.5 4.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 564.40
Index Points
564 573 579 588 623
Core Consumer Prices 100.30
Index Points
100 100 101 100 100
Core Inflation Rate 2.40
percent
2 2.2 2.4 2.3 3.1
GDP Deflator 111.24
Index Points
110 112 111 111 125
Producer Prices 684.20
Index Points
725 718 668 717 768
Producer Prices Change 16.60
percent
13.2 8.5 6.5 5.1 3.2
Food Inflation -0.60
percent
2 2.2 2.5 2.6 4.5
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7.25 7.25 7.25 6.75 5.5
Interbank Rate 7.20
percent
7.2 7.2 7.2 6.7 5.45
Money Supply M0 8945.50
RUB Billion
8500 8450 8356 9030 8600
Money Supply M1 20604.39
RUB Billion
19800 19600 20685 20826 21400
Money Supply M2 44125.30
RUB Billion
43800 44600 46683 47583 49200
Foreign Exchange Reserves 458032.00
USD Million
470000 475000 480000 485000 510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2339.30
RUB Billion
1973 2130 1882 1881 2040
Loans to Private Sector 25507546.00
RUB Million
25438307 25776018 25959214 26234164 29421346
Deposit Interest Rate 7.01
percent
7.01 7.01 7.01 6.51 5.26
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 5
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 15555.00
USD Million
11100 10200 11000 9000 10900
Exports 36571.00
USD Million
36200 40100 38400 37900 49800
Imports 21016.00
USD Million
25100 29900 27400 28900 38900
Current Account 22300.00
USD Million
45000 15200 19500 4900 12000
Current Account to GDP 2.20
percent
2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.2
External Debt 485.50
USD Billion
464 547 450 440 628
Capital Flows 33473.41
USD Million
6987 12600 12994 12429 14200
Gold Reserves 1909.80
Tonnes
2010 2030 2045 2060 2150
Crude Oil Production 10562.00
BBL/D/1K
10566 10600 10567 10567 10800
Terrorism Index 5.33
5.43 5.43 6.15 6.33 5.43
Weapons Sales 6148.00
USD Million
6191 7000 5838 5804 8500
Remittances 368.00
USD Million
350 350 355 378 400
Foreign Direct Investment 4300.00
USD Million
3250 5600 5691 5247 10000
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 12.60
percent
21.2 21.2 22 22 24
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP
0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.6
Government Budget Value 1383.30
RUB Billion
-92785 -2114093 70541 87660 -1368176
Government Spending 3959.10
RUB Billion
3972 4042 3999 4009 4239
Government Revenues 16770583.90
RUB Million
15974362 33562428 14895935 15019500 40241351
Government Debt 11618.80
RUB Billion
12030 14818 12002 12147 18168
Fiscal Expenditure 15255887.10
RUB Million
16067147 35676521 14825394 14931841 41609527
Military Expenditure 55327.20
USD Million
62000 62000 65000 65000 70000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence -2.00
Index Points
-1 -2 0 0 6
Manufacturing PMI 48.10
52.1 52 52.6 53 53.5
Services PMI 52.80
Index Points
55 54.6 54.7 54.4 54
Industrial Production 3.90
percent
2.6 3.5 3.2 2.64 5.2
Industrial Production Mom -0.30
percent
2.2 6.4 0.43 0.45 4.2
Manufacturing Production 4.60
percent
3.2 3 3.3 3.3 4.8
Capacity Utilization 64.00
percent
63.32 64 64 64 66
Changes in Inventories 85.90
RUB Billion
1200 -620 77.65 -947 -520
Total Vehicle Sales 143452.00
146103 163439 145765 154962 197696
Car Production 138.60
Thousand Units
135 114 125 130 158
Car Registrations 143452.00
150297 170000 165000 155000 178000
Leading Economic Index 1.80
percent
1.5 2 2.2 0.6 2.1
Internet Speed 11846.17
KBps
11708 11696 11712 11709 11684
IP Addresses 19163474.00
IP
18616502 19075455 19078991 18678671 18989703
Steel Production 6120.00
Thousand Tonnes
6033 6310 6058 6056 6300
Mining Production 3.20
percent
2.34 2.9 2.07 2.01 4.2
Cement Production 5.89
Millions of Tonnes
5.6 3.4 5 7 3.8
Competitiveness Index 4.64
Points
4.6 4.6 4.62 4.65 4.78
Competitiveness Rank 38.00
42 42 38 37 39
Composite Pmi 51.70
52.89 53 53.14 53.13 54.5
Bankruptcies 3680.00
Companies
3286 3270 3503 3499 3090
Corporate Profits 4885.80
RUB Billion
7100 12500 2700 5000 19700
Corruption Index 29.00
Points
30 30 28 27 28
Corruption Rank 135.00
138 120 144 145 110
Ease of Doing Business 35.00
31 38 27 26 33
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.00
Index Points
-6 -6 -7 -7 -4
Retail Sales MoM 3.30
percent
0.97 23.7 0.75 0.76 22.8
Retail Sales YoY 2.50
percent
3.01 2.7 2.96 2.96 5.4
Consumer Spending 11147.00
RUB Billion
12076 12632 11258 11387 13246
Consumer Credit 13197822.00
RUB Million
13827174 11400000 14936974 15413661 12000000
Private Sector Credit 38705368.00
RUB Million
39439854 40146811 40744448 41255280 43625609
Bank Lending Rate 8.94
percent
8.94 8.94 8.94 8.44 7.19
Disposable Personal Income 2.00
percent
2.5 2.9 1.5 1.8 4.8
Households Debt To Gdp 16.20
Percent
16.79 17.02 17.15 17.31 18.31
Gasoline Prices 0.72
USD/Liter
0.73 0.68 0.65 0.61 0.32
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 1.00
percent
2 2 2.5 2.5 3
Construction Output -0.70
percent
-0.29 5.8 -0.46 -0.46 6
Housing Starts 5.00
Million Sq Meter
6.93 17.5 6.52 6.5 20.1
Home Ownership Rate 87.30
percent
84 84 85 85 85
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 47.50
percent
47.5 47.5 46.75 48 30
Social Security Rate For Companies 47.50
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 30.73
mm
58.25 29.88 18.18 36.98 36.4
Temperature -20.43
celsius
11.08 -14.87 -21.58 10.49 -5.65