Bitcoin Continues to Consolidate

Bitcoin traded around $63,500 in mid-August, remaining in a tight range since early July and down roughly 50% from its record high reached last October. Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path and stalled negotiations on the US Clarity Act continued to keep buyers on the sidelines. The Senate has now pushed a procedural vote on the bill to September 15. Institutional demand also showed signs of fragility, with US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $389.7 million in net outflows in the week of August 10. This reversed $853.5 million of inflows the previous week and marked the funds’ largest weekly outflow since late June. The selling came after ETF demand strengthened in early August, partly following the Coldcard wallet hack, which briefly renewed interest in gaining Bitcoin exposure through traditional investment products.

Bitcoin traded around $65,300 in late July, moving within a tight range after plunging to a nearly two-year low earlier this month, as improving sentiment across risk assets was offset by softening ETF demand. The US and Iran extended a pause in retaliatory strikes, easing some concerns over deeper disruptions to regional energy supplies following the recent escalation in tensions. Still, gains were capped by significant outflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded more than $465 million in net outflows on July 23 and July 24, ending a seven-session inflow streak as investors grew concerned that the Federal Reserve could keep rates elevated for longer. However, the selling pressure was not enough to erase weekly gains, with ETFs posting $33.8 million in net inflows over the period. Meanwhile, markets are tracking developments around the Clarity Act, a long-awaited US cryptocurrency market-structure bill, as negotiations stalled over ethics provisions.

Bitcoin climbed toward $66,000 in late July, reaching its highest level in five weeks, as renewed inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs signaled improving institutional sentiment despite heightened geopolitical risks. The 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $75.7 million last week, marking a second consecutive week of gains after nearly two months of persistent outflows and reinforcing hopes that the cryptocurrency may be finding a floor. The increase came even as renewed US-Iran hostilities fueled inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to potential regulatory support from the proposed US Clarity Act, while Strategy's continued pause in Bitcoin purchases and focus on preserving liquidity tempered broader optimism.