Contango Pays Most in Decade


In the worst year ever for oil, investors can lock in the biggest profits in a decade by storing crude.

Traders who bought oil at the $40.81 a barrel on Dec. 5 could sell futures contracts for delivery next December at $54.65, a 34 percent gain. After taking into account storage and financing costs investors would earn about 11 percent, according to Andy Lipow, president of Houston consultant Lipow Oil Associates LLC. The premium, known as contango, is the biggest for a 12-month span of futures since 1998, when a glut drove crude down to $10.

Stockpiling crude may provide higher returns than commodities, stocks and Treasuries as the U.S., Japan and Europe endure simultaneous recessions for the first time since World War II. Crude sank 70 percent in New York since peaking at $147.27 in July. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 38 percent this year and two-year government notes yield 0.9 percent.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc sees so much potential in the strategy that it anchored a supertanker holding as much as $80 million of oil off the U.K. to take advantage of higher prices for future delivery. The ship is one of as many as 16 booked for potential storage instead of transporting crude, said Johnny Plumbe, chief executive officer of London shipbroker ACM Shipping Group Plc.

The tankers, if full, hold about 26 million barrels worth about $1 billion, more than the 22.9 million barrels sitting in Cushing, Oklahoma, where oil is stored for delivery against Nymex contracts. U.S. crude inventories rose 11 percent this year to 320.4 million barrels, according to the Energy Department.

Crude oil for January delivery rose $2.90, or 7.1 percent, to settle at $43.71 a barrel at 3:21 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange today. It climbed as high as $44.70 during the session.

Blanch said last week that oil may fall to $25 a barrel should the Chinese economy slip into recession and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fail to take enough crude off the market.

The Hague-based Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, last month chartered the supertanker Leander with an option to store North Sea Forties crude, according to Paris shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles. The vessel arrived at Scotland’s Hound Point, the loading port for Forties, on Nov. 20, according to tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Sally Hepton, a London-based spokeswoman at Shell, declined to comment.

Shell and Koch Industries Inc. of Wichita, Kansas, also hired four supertankers to hold oil in the U.S. Gulf Coast to take advantage of rising prices in the months ahead. They took Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs, to move oil from the Middle East, said Bruce Kahler, a broker at Lone Star, R.S. Platou in Houston.

Demand for tankers to store crude oil may help revive the share prices of shipowners including Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd., down 43 percent this year, economist Dennis Gartman said in today’s edition of his Gartman Letter.

A supertanker would cost about 90 cents a barrel per month for storage, according to data from shipbroker Galbraith’s Ltd. The amount varies, depending on the duration of the storage.

The reduced availability of credit may make it harder for traders and companies to purchase and store oil, said Merrill’s Blanch and Societe Generale’s Wittner.

The opportunity to benefit from the storage trade may disappear in weeks should OPEC cut output after its Dec. 17 meeting in Algeria. The group postponed a decision on production at its Nov. 29 gathering in Cairo.


TradingEconomics.com, Bloomberg
12/8/2008 2:00:34 PM