China Inflation Rate Above Estimates

China’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.2% in April 2026 from 1.0% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 0.8%. Non-food inflation climbed (1.8% vs 1.2% in March), with transport costs picking up significantly (4.6% vs 0.9%), amid higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict. Also, prices continued to rise for clothing (1.5% vs 1.6%), healthcare (2.2% vs 1.9%), and education (1.3% vs 1.1%). In contrast, a decline in housing costs lingered (-0.2% vs -0.2%). On the food side, prices fell 1.6%, reversing a 0.3% increase in March and marking the first drop since January, reflecting persistently weak pork prices and declines in costs of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 1.2% yoy, after March's 1.1% gain. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3%, swinging from a 0.7% fall previously and defying consensus for a 0.1% decline.

China’s annual inflation eased to 1.0% in March 2026 from February’s over three-year high of 1.3%, falling short of market expectations of 1.2%. Food prices rose at a much softer pace (0.3% vs 1.7% in February), amid a sharp slowdown in fresh vegetables and fruit, alongside a steeper fall in pork prices. Meanwhile, non-food inflation was little changed (1.2% vs 1.3%), with prices continuing to rise for clothing (1.6% vs 1.9%), healthcare (1.9% vs 1.9%), and education (1.1% vs 2.0%). Transport costs rebounded (0.9% vs -0.7%), while a decline in housing costs persisted (-0.2% vs -0.2%). Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 1.1% yoy, after a 1.8% gain in February, which had pointed to the strongest gain since March 2019. China recently imposed controls on domestic fuel prices to cushion households and businesses against higher oil costs. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.7%, after a 1.0% gain in February, marking the first drop since November and undershooting forecasts of a 0.2% drop.

China will keep controls on retail gasoline and diesel prices from Wednesday, April 8, to cushion the impact of volatile global oil markets, according to the National Development and Reform Commission. The move follows “significant fluctuations” in international crude prices since late March. Under Beijing’s pricing formula, fuel prices would have risen sharply, by CNY 800 per tonne for gasoline and CNY 770 for diesel, but the government limited the increases at CNY 420 and CNY 400, respectively. Authorities also instructed major state oil firms, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, as well as other refiners, to maintain output and logistics to ensure a stable domestic fuel supply.