Exports from Japan declined 3.8 percent from a year earlier to JPY 7.02 trillion, worse than market consensus of a 1.9 percent drop and after a 0.1 percent rise in November. It was the steepest drop since October 2016 amid weakening global demand and ongoing trade dispute between China and the US. Exports fell for: machinery (-6.6 percent), electrical machinery (-7.4 percent); manufactured goods (-5.2 percent); motor vehicles (-0.5 percent); and scientific, optical instruments (-10.3 percent). Meanwhile, sales of chemicals grew 4.2 percent. Exports to Asia fell 6.9 percent, in particular to China (-7 percent), South Korea (-11.6 percent), Taiwan (-7.1 percent), Hong Kong (-17.3 percent) and Singapore (-3.3 percent). In addition, there were decreases in exports to Australia (-16 percent), Germany (-5 percent) and the Middle East (-4.9 percent). In 2018, export growth slowed to 4.1 percent from 11.8 percent in 2017. Exports in Japan averaged 3345.16 JPY Billion from 1963 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7681.69 JPY Billion in March of 2008 and a record low of 105.08 JPY Billion in January of 1963.
Exports in Japan is expected to be 6930.00 JPY Billion by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Exports in Japan to stand at 6300.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Exports is projected to trend around 6450.00 JPY Billion in 2020, according to our econometric models.