Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.70 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 2 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 670.17 300 446 443 448 410 JPY Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 251 250 250 247 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 112.44 112 111 110 108 95.97 [+]
Stock Market 21448.52 20500 20300 20100 19900 17600 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.40 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.7 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 2.50 2.4 2 2.2 2.5 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 4939.38 5350 5870 5870 5870 6660 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 529241.60 530879 531569 531798 531905 530547 JPY Billion [+]
Gross National Product 553555.00 554970 556032 556307 556571 555718 JPY Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 125445.90 126454 126786 126906 126957 109000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP per capita 47607.70 45100 47864 47909 47953 46200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38239.80 36000 38178 38163 38148 37000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4700.10 5189 5258 5326 5395 5777 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28188.70 29512 29726 29940 30154 32982 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 103814.20 105310 105128 104947 104765 113000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 233.30 255 260 264 269 320 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 30779.50 30639 30593 30546 30499 29483 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Services 22201.40 41345 50530 59715 68900 85779 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 24766.70 24592 24531 24471 24410 23920 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 8424.00 9441 9661 9881 10101 11955 JPY Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 65650.00 65641 65635 65630 65627 65596 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1860.00 1842 1846 1850 1854 1889 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 7047.00 7041 7036 7031 7026 6980 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 21257.00 21126 21044 20971 20908 20593 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.20 59.32 59.33 59.37 59.4 59.58 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.90 61.19 61.2 61.3 61.35 61.67 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.28 1.29 1.3 1.31 1.72 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.80 4.85 4.87 4.89 4.91 5.09 percent [+]
Productivity 101.90 99.85 99.4 98.98 98.59 95.66 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 976.57 981 979 977 974 951 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 284.16 319 332 323 319 301 Thousand [+]
Wages 301.70 672 322 545 306 701 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 334.08 808 350 563 342 822 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wage Growth 0.90 0.58 0.58 0.65 0.72 1.09 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 823.00 823 860 860 860 900 JPY/Hour [+]
Population 126.86 126 126 126 127 124 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.00 62 62 62 61.81 63 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.00 62 62 62 61.81 63 [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.70 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.1 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.30 103 100 100 100 113 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.30 103 100 100 100 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.70 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 103.90 104 101 104 101 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 99.00 99.02 99.05 99.08 99.11 105 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 95.60 96.29 96.63 96.97 97.31 100 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 91.60 93.57 94.11 94.65 95.19 99.26 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.90 1 1 1.1 1.1 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.00 3 2.5 2.7 2.6 1.8 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 99.70 99.68 99.67 99.65 99.62 99.36 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 98.20 98.07 98.04 98 97.97 97.75 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.03 -0.04 -0.02 0.01 0.04 0.13 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 96070.00 96046 95992 95975 95959 95804 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 716222.80 716961 717040 716907 716685 714282 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 979274.80 980251 980609 980692 980642 979423 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1309236.20 1318746 1326424 1332520 1337281 1346197 JPY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 513398.50 518552 520705 521397 521381 515926 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1266310.00 1271324 1272468 1272174 1271316 1260412 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 449389.30 445373 445373 445373 445373 445373 JPY Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30 0.3 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 840.70 62 -620 -20 -180 250 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 269.70 184 185 185 185 185 JPY Billion [+]
Loan Growth 3.00 2.75 2.57 2.43 2.31 1.4 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 231.10 234 234 234 234 241 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 670.17 300 446 443 448 410 JPY Billion [+]
Exports 6811.00 5900 6499 6421 6357 6450 JPY Billion [+]
Imports 6140.83 5600 6032 5981 5929 6040 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account 2380.40 1595 1399 1287 1220 1108 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.70 3.7 3.76 3.82 3.87 2.66 percent [+]
External Debt 390590.00 390461 390410 389551 388339 377309 JPY Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 104.40 105 105 105 105 107 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5927.00 7939 7132 6659 6342 5733 JPY Hundreds Million [+]
Capital Flows 19217.00 12823 10990 9966 9095 5841 JPY HML [+]
Tourism Revenues 14659000.00 15480262 17237997 15830891 15882199 13088528 JPY Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2477500.00 2471000 2485300 2492600 2495200 2448900 [+]
Gold Reserves 765.22 765 765 765 764 762 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 2.45 2.65 2.39 2.12 1.86 0.11 [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 4.16 4.21 4.26 4.31 4.72 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 251 250 250 247 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.50 -4.28 -4.26 -4.24 -4.21 -4.16 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -99315.00 -52411 1761 -82917 -39306 -55499 JPY HND Million [+]
Government Spending 106215.20 106310 106446 106469 106515 106473 JPY Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 41569.00 41838 41905 41972 42039 42391 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1360.00 1335 1329 1323 1318 1270 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 39.47 38.52 38.34 38.15 37.96 37.75 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 22.00 10 21.92 18.99 15.18 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.90 53 53.8 52.4 52.4 51 [+]
Services Pmi 51.00 52.1 52 51.7 51.25 50.8 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 5.30 2.86 1.94 1.42 1.23 4.39 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.00 0.4 0.11 0.1 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.40 1.2 2.02 1.46 1.26 3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 103.40 105 105 106 106 108 Index Points [+]
New Orders 1027.41 991 991 995 998 1020 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders 3.40 0.12 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -1247.60 -251 284 588 755 477 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 679.00 710 740 765 789 954 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 22389.97 20518 19994 20635 20392 19593 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 117.60 117 116 115 113 106 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 51.30 49.5 48.23 47.34 46.7 45.14 [+]
Car Production 596706.00 645077 668841 678615 678722 685867 Units [+]
Car Registrations 276049.00 240926 249852 261577 264565 263099 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 106.80 107 106 105 104 97.51 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 10.00 10.03 8.87 6.39 3.53 -10.47 [+]
Steel Production 8730.57 8709 8722 8730 8736 8747 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Non Manufacturing Pmi 23.00 22.58 21.47 20.04 18.42 7.1 [+]
Private Investment 1.50 -0.59 -1.13 -1.5 -1.7 -1.91 percent [+]
Mining Production 13.20 2.02 0.35 -0.51 -0.95 -1.42 percent [+]
Cement Production 5020.00 5188 5322 5399 5462 5889 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 9.00 9 9 9 9 6 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.70 51.18 51.25 51.32 51.32 51.31 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 34.00 35 35 35 35 33 [+]
Corruption Index 72.00 71 71 71 72 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 20.00 19 19 19 18 19 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.90 44.02 43.92 43.73 43.53 42.8 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.70 1.2 0 -0.01 0 1.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.70 0.5 1.98 2.03 2.08 0.9 percent [+]
Household Spending 6.00 0.5 -0.63 -0.68 -0.67 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 301186.40 301589 302248 302145 302283 301892 JPY Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 401.13 434 428 429 429 429 JPY Thousand [+]
Personal Savings 20.20 18.47 8.79 14.31 11.2 12.32 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.00 1.02 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.2 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 57.60 53.72 52.77 52.18 51.71 50.96 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Credit 330872.00 397419 417056 438070 450774 473239 JPY Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.18 1.19 1.21 1.1 1.1 0.94 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Starts -2.00 1.5 1.1 1.1 -0.34 1.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders -10.60 3 -1 -1 2.25 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 110.63 110 110 110 110 108 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.90 61.99 62 62 62.01 61.53 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86 30.86 30 30 30 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95 54.3 54.2 54.1 54 53.21 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 8.00 8 7.48 7.3 7.11 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 29.60 29.34 29.17 28.99 28.81 27.89 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.20 14.92 14.79 14.66 14.53 13.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.40 14.13 14.07 14.01 13.95 13.48 percent [+]