Japan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.50 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.8 percent
Inflation Rate 0.70 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.8 percent
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1 percent
Balance of Trade -578.32 316 61.21 250 -48.08 410 JPY Billion
Government Debt to GDP 253.00 251 250 252 247 246 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 109.97
108 110 112 114 122
Stock Market 22516.83
points
20471 19710 18976 18270 15700
Government Bond 10Y 0.04
percent
0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.2
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20
percent
0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.10
percent
1.7 1.8 2.1 2 1.7
GDP Growth Annualized -0.60
percent
0.9 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.9
GDP 4940.16
USD Billion
5870 5870 5870 6110 6660
GDP Constant Prices 533911.30
JPY Billion
539746 542955 545944 544590 564109
Gross National Product 556369.20
JPY Billion
566010 570604 571743 567497 590766
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 127504.00
JPY Billion
130000 130000 130000 130000 135000
GDP per capita 47607.70
USD
45500 45500 45500 46000 46200
GDP per capita PPP 38239.80
USD
38028 38111 36400 36650 37000
GDP From Agriculture 4272.10
JPY Billion
4345 4349 4362 4358 4507
GDP From Construction 28365.30
JPY Billion
28848 28876 28961 28933 29925
GDP From Manufacturing 107759.60
JPY Billion
109592 109699 110023 109915 113683
GDP From Mining 213.80
JPY Billion
217 218 218 218 226
GDP From Public Administration 26247.90
JPY Billion
26694 26720 26799 26773 27691
GDP From Services 21864.70
JPY Billion
22236 22258 22324 22302 23067
GDP From Transport 24250.60
JPY Billion
24663 24687 24760 24736 25584
GDP From Utilities 8743.10
JPY Billion
8892 8900 8927 8918 9224
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.50
percent
2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.8
Employed Persons 66930.00
Thousand
67080 67419 67733 68025 70418
Unemployed Persons 1720.00
Thousand
1733 1736 1734 1735 1735
Part Time Employment 7135.00
Thousand
7174 7208 7250 7290 7738
Full Time Employment 22353.00
Thousand
22169 21976 21973 21990 21989
Employment Rate 60.10
percent
59.3 59.3 59.4 59.5 59.7
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70
percent
61 61 61.1 61.2 61.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 3.80
percent
3.79 3.86 3.87 3.87 3.87
Productivity 114.70
Index Points
107 111 106 110 106
Job Vacancies 991.51
Thousand
990 996 1001 1005 1019
Job Advertisements 378.97
Thousand
351 358 366 348 358
Wages 309633.00
JPY/Month
545000 306000 689000 328000 707000
Wages in Manufacturing 339328.00
JPY/Month
563000 342000 825000 356000 846000
Wage Growth 0.80
percent
1.22 1.08 1.17 1.17 1.18
Minimum Wages 848.00
JPY/Hour
848 848 848 870 900
Population 126.71
Million
126 127 126 127 124
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 0.70
percent
0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.1 0.1 0.2 0 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.00
Index Points
101 102 103 102 106
Core Consumer Prices 101.00
Index Points
101 101 102 102 105
Core Inflation Rate 0.70
percent
0.7 0.9 1 1.2 2
GDP Deflator 101.50
Index Points
105 102 105 102 105
Producer Prices 101.10
Index Points
101 102 103 103 108
Export Prices 96.90
Index Points
97.35 97.69 97.23 97.19 97.28
Import Prices 98.60
Index Points
99.91 100 99.39 99.37 99.51
Food Inflation 0.80
percent
2.9 3 2.7 2.3 1.9
Producer Prices Change 2.70
percent
2.7 3 3.2 2.9 1.8
CPI Housing Utilities 99.60
Index Points
101 101 101 101 104
CPI Transportation 99.60
Index Points
99.18 98.88 100 101 104
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate -0.10
percent
-0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1
Interbank Rate -0.04
percent
-0.04 -0.04 -0.04 0.06 0.16
Money Supply M0 99073.10
JPY Billion
98895 98990 98980 98979 98978
Money Supply M1 756265.80
JPY Billion
756550 768285 778402 787912 885405
Money Supply M2 1003237.20
JPY Billion
1001322 1011420 1019184 1026428 1108284
Money Supply M3 1329771.20
JPY Billion
1332434 1340992 1349429 1357799 1446011
Central Bank Balance Sheet 540803.60
JPY Billion
542106 554588 566445 577915 688183
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1254500.00
USD Million
1255604 1253659 1254193 1255305 1267924
Loans to Private Sector 454949.70
JPY Billion
454964 454893 454930 454933 454927
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30
percent
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5
Foreign Stock Investment -40.80
JPY Billion
-20 -180 -120 -48.92 250
Foreign Bond Investment 1490.40
JPY Billion
-59.94 170 171 171 171
Private Debt to GDP 229.40
percent
228 227 226 227 227
Loan Growth 2.00
percent
2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -578.32
JPY Billion
316 61.21 250 -48.08 410
Exports 6323.32
JPY Billion
6847 6795 6200 6717 6450
Imports 6901.65
JPY Billion
6532 6734 5950 6765 6040
Current Account 1845.10
JPY Billion
1261 2010 1562 1840 1756
Current Account to GDP 4.02
percent
3.5 3.5 3.5 2 2.67
External Debt 413448.00
JPY Billion
419869 425969 431289 437044 494648
Terms of Trade 98.30
Index Points
97.44 97.33 97.79 97.81 97.76
Foreign Direct Investment 13648.00
JPY Hundreds Million
12998 12886 12885 12877 12874
Capital Flows 4299.00
JPY HML
11248 21151 5107 42654 12456
Tourism Revenues 23582000.00
JPY Thousand
17914605 21431738 18904556 20676755 19933778
Tourist Arrivals 2675000.00
2674500 2695000 2709800 2719400 2735100
Gold Reserves 765.20
Tonnes
765 765 765 765 765
Terrorism Index 3.60
2.5 2.2 1.91 1.5 1.33
Crude Oil Production 4.00
BBL/D/1K
3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 253.00
percent
251 250 252 247 246
Government Budget -4.50
percent of GDP
-4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5
Government Budget Value -49945.00
JPY HND Million
-53918 -54637 -54452 -54475 -54453
Government Spending 106654.00
JPY Billion
108233 108397 108775 108787 112394
Military Expenditure 46555.98
USD Million
41368 41499 41629 41646 41722
Asylum Applications 1982.00
Persons
1762 1764 1766 1766 1765
Government Spending To Gdp 39.05
percent
39.15 39.07 38.99 38.99 38.95
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 24.00
Index Points
20 18 17 21 2
Services Pmi 51.00
Index Points
50.7 51.3 52.5 52 50.8
Manufacturing PMI 53.10
53.1 52.4 51.9 52 51
Industrial Production 2.60
percent
2.84 2.85 3.31 2.82 4.39
Industrial Production Mom 0.50
percent
0.12 0.03 0.7 0.02 0.1
Manufacturing Production 2.60
percent
2.84 2.85 2.5 2.82 3
Capacity Utilization 104.20
Index Points
104 104 104 104 104
New Orders 1061.93
JPY Billion
1003 1012 1013 1013 1013
Machinery Orders 10.10
percent
9.5 3 -0.6 1.7 0.2
Changes in Inventories 455.70
JPY Billion
1060 507 560 417 446
Bankruptcies 767.00
Companies
720 706 716 720 719
Corporate Profits 20165.23
JPY Billion
22303 18863 21169 20007 21172
Coincident Index 117.70
119 119 120 120 120
Economy Watchers Survey 47.10
46.55 46.4 46.06 45.84 45.19
Car Production 810942.00
Units
759431 729585 688575 826652 694206
Car Registrations 202031.00
260424 278032 229486 259518 234962
Leading Economic Index 105.60
Index Points
106 106 106 106 106
Small Business Sentiment 15.00
13.97 11.37 8.51 5.54 -8.83
Internet Speed 20171.96
KBps
20701 20612 20490 20442 19276
IP Addresses 43689566.00
IP
42319334 42038894 41765709 41503516 39432646
Private Investment 3.40
percent
4.46 3.16 3.33 3.63 3.61
Mining Production -5.60
percent
-4.34 -2.79 -2.06 -1.68 -1.28
Non Manufacturing Pmi 23.00
23.84 23.47 23.63 23.56 23.58
Steel Production 8723.45
Thousand Tonnes
9007 8806 8893 8952 8914
Cement Production 4825.00
Thousands of Tonnes
5085 4980 4972 4976 4978
Competitiveness Index 5.49
Points
5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48
Competitiveness Rank 9.00
8 8 8 8 8
Composite Pmi 51.70
51.89 51.55 51.51 51.52 51.53
Ease of Doing Business 34.00
34 34 33 33 27
Corruption Index 73.00
Points
73 73 73 73 73
Corruption Rank 20.00
20 20 20 20 20
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.80
Index Points
43.8 43.9 44 43.9 43.9
Retail Sales MoM 1.40
percent
-0.06 0.13 0.8 0.05 1.2
Retail Sales YoY 1.60
percent
1.31 1.23 0.9 1.15 0.9
Household Spending -1.30
percent
-0.91 -0.78 0.71 -0.71 2
Consumer Spending 299481.10
JPY Billion
305890 304125 306031 305471 316213
Disposable Personal Income 405.24
JPY Thousand
600 362 767 365 820
Personal Savings 50.10
percent
45 11 50 3 48
Bank Lending Rate 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1.1 1.2
Households Debt To Gdp 57.40
percent of GDP
57.48 57.48 57.53 57.55 57.6
Consumer Credit 337012.00
JPY Billion
333397 333254 333280 333275 333276
Gasoline Prices 1.39
USD/Liter
1.39 1.31 1.23 1.16 0.81
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Starts 0.30
percent
1.1 -1.52 0.6 -1.18 1.5
Construction Orders 4.00
percent
-1 3.47 2.2 3.47 2.2
Housing Index 109.01
Index Points
109 110 109 110 109
Home Ownership Rate 61.70
percent
61.74 61.77 61.8 61.82 62.11
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86
percent
30.86 30.86 30.86 27 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95
percent
55.95 55.95 55.95 56 56
Sales Tax Rate 8.00
percent
8 8 8 10 10
Social Security Rate 29.20
percent
29.2 29.2 29.2 29 29
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.75
percent
14.27 14.27 14.27 14.38 13.89
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.45
percent
14.25 14.25 14.25 14.24 13.87
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 4.06
celsius
14.42 22.56 8.85 2.06 12.24
Precipitation 102.03
mm
154 202 108 82.4 139