Japan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.40 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.8 percent
Inflation Rate 0.70 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8 percent
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 0 0 0.1 percent
Balance of Trade -231.21 385 407 231 377 410 JPY Billion
Government Debt to GDP 253.00 254 254 256 256 258 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 110.39
112 114 116 118 125
Stock Market 22199.00
points
20905 20123 19369 18646 16010
Government Bond 10Y 0.10
percent
0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.2
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50
percent
0.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00
percent
1.8 2.1 2 1.3 1.7
GDP Growth Annualized 1.90
percent
1 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.9
GDP 4872.14
USD Billion
4900 4900 5110 5110 5300
GDP Constant Prices 536016.00
JPY Billion
543352 545987 544217 542984 564153
Gross National Product 561018.70
JPY Billion
571105 572587 568084 568312 591638
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 128099.30
JPY Billion
130000 130000 130000 130000 135000
GDP per capita 48556.93
USD
49500 49500 50100 50100 51000
GDP per capita PPP 39002.22
USD
40000 40000 41500 41500 43000
GDP From Agriculture 4272.10
JPY Billion
4349 4362 4358 4328 4507
GDP From Construction 28365.30
JPY Billion
28876 28961 28933 28734 29925
GDP From Manufacturing 107759.60
JPY Billion
109699 110023 109915 109160 113683
GDP From Mining 213.80
JPY Billion
218 218 218 217 226
GDP From Public Administration 26247.90
JPY Billion
26720 26799 26773 26589 27691
GDP From Services 21864.70
JPY Billion
22258 22324 22302 22149 23067
GDP From Transport 24250.60
JPY Billion
24687 24760 24736 24566 25584
GDP From Utilities 8743.10
JPY Billion
8900 8927 8918 8857 9224
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.40
percent
2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.8
Employed Persons 66320.00
Thousand
66724 66855 67001 67142 68124
Unemployed Persons 1660.00
Thousand
1612 1588 1568 1551 1481
Part Time Employment 7210.00
Thousand
7302 7344 7385 7426 7835
Full Time Employment 22384.00
Thousand
22007 21999 22018 22018 22017
Employment Rate 60.20
percent
59.6 59.2 61.2 59.5 60.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70
percent
61.3 60.8 61.5 61.5 62.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 3.80
percent
3.74 3.76 3.75 3.75 3.75
Productivity 103.40
Index Points
105 99.81 104 99.76 99.83
Job Vacancies 983.86
Thousand
974 976 976 976 977
Wages 548168.00
JPY/Month
306000 689000 328000 559000 707000
Wages in Manufacturing 578093.00
JPY/Month
342000 825000 356000 578000 846000
Wage Growth 3.60
percent
1.28 1.43 1.52 1.49 1.49
Minimum Wages 848.00
JPY/Hour
848 848 870 870 900
Population 126.71
Million
127 126 127 126 124
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 0.70
percent
1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.1 0.2 0 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.90
Index Points
102 103 102 102 106
Core Consumer Prices 101.00
Index Points
101 102 102 102 105
Core Inflation Rate 0.80
percent
0.9 1 1.2 1.3 2
GDP Deflator 104.20
Index Points
102 105 102 105 105
Producer Prices 101.80
Index Points
102 103 103 104 108
Export Prices 97.60
Index Points
97.49 97.09 97.06 97.15 97.13
Import Prices 101.70
Index Points
102 100 100 100 100
Food Inflation 0.40
percent
1.3 1.6 1.7 2.6 1.9
Producer Prices Change 3.10
percent
3 3.2 2.9 2.7 1.8
CPI Housing Utilities 99.60
Index Points
101 101 101 101 104
CPI Transportation 99.60
Index Points
98.88 100 101 101 104
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate -0.10
percent
-0.1 -0.1 0 0 0.1
Interbank Rate -0.04
percent
-0.04 -0.04 0.07 0.07 0.17
Money Supply M0 99787.40
JPY Billion
99100 99093 99085 99085 99086
Money Supply M1 760740.80
JPY Billion
771239 781759 791708 801432 892944
Money Supply M2 1007514.70
JPY Billion
1015087 1023450 1031517 1039438 1117938
Money Supply M3 1335285.50
JPY Billion
1342154 1350873 1359508 1368081 1450699
Central Bank Balance Sheet 546310.80
JPY Billion
548190 558999 569345 579345 666211
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1256300.00
USD Million
1258130 1259319 1260842 1262410 1276527
Loans to Private Sector 458097.40
JPY Billion
456890 456811 456779 456768 456761
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30
percent
0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Foreign Stock Investment -107.10
JPY Billion
-180 -120 -38.68 -38.68 250
Foreign Bond Investment 123.90
JPY Billion
178 173 173 173 173
Private Debt to GDP 229.40
percent
227 226 227 228 227
Loan Growth 2.00
percent
2.1 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -231.21
JPY Billion
385 407 231 377 410
Exports 6747.36
JPY Billion
6936 6869 6832 6811 6450
Imports 6978.57
JPY Billion
6551 6412 6600 6434 6040
Current Account 1175.60
JPY Billion
2043 1685 1940 1828 1869
Current Account to GDP 4.02
percent
3.5 3.5 2 2 3.17
External Debt 413448.00
JPY Billion
425969 431289 437044 442752 494648
Terms of Trade 96.00
Index Points
96.02 96.77 96.85 96.74 96.74
Foreign Direct Investment 16333.00
JPY Hundreds Million
12946 12504 12431 12411 12407
Capital Flows 5749.00
JPY HML
21151 5107 42654 12661 12456
Tourism Revenues 22272000.00
JPY Thousand
22697756 20160618 22011270 20662321 21209411
Tourist Arrivals 2832000.00
2723600 2735600 2743500 2748500 2756900
Gold Reserves 765.20
Tonnes
765 765 765 765 765
Terrorism Index 3.60
2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.3
Crude Oil Production 4.00
BBL/D/1K
3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 253.00
percent
254 254 256 256 258
Government Budget -4.50
percent of GDP
-4.4 -4.4 -4.5 -4.5 -4.4
Government Budget Value 53517.00
JPY HND Million
-54637 -54452 -54475 -54475 -54453
Government Spending 106814.30
JPY Billion
108426 108803 108705 108203 112423
Military Expenditure 46555.98
USD Million
46434 46566 46686 46807 47183
Asylum Applications 1648.00
Persons
1603 1604 1606 1605 1605
Government Spending To Gdp 39.05
percent
39.07 38.99 38.99 38.98 38.95
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 21.00
Index Points
18 17 21 20 2
Services Pmi 51.30
Index Points
51.3 52.5 52 51.3 50.8
Manufacturing PMI 52.30
52.4 51.9 52 53 51
Industrial Production -0.90
percent
-1.1 3 -1.6 0.3 4
Industrial Production Mom -1.80
percent
0.3 0.7 0.5 -0.2 0.1
Manufacturing Production -1.23
percent
-2.04 2.5 -1.65 -1.64 3
Capacity Utilization 99.80
Index Points
102 102 102 102 102
New Orders 985.28
JPY Billion
1044 1047 1048 1048 1048
Machinery Orders -8.80
percent
3 -0.6 1.7 -1.4 0.2
Changes in Inventories 455.70
JPY Billion
507 560 417 385 446
Bankruptcies 702.00
Companies
693 702 707 706 705
Corporate Profits 20165.23
JPY Billion
18863 21169 20007 21978 21172
Coincident Index 116.30
117 118 118 118 118
Economy Watchers Survey 47.50
47.56 46.89 46.44 46.1 45.15
Car Production 618109.00
Units
729585 688575 826652 794641 694206
Car Registrations 245068.00
278032 229486 253361 273989 234962
Leading Economic Index 105.20
Index Points
108 108 108 108 108
Small Business Sentiment 14.00
15 13 15 12 -4
Internet Speed 20171.96
KBps
22329 22872 23231 23638 27785
IP Addresses 43689566.00
IP
43485442 43485720 43487420 43486465 43487808
Private Investment 3.40
percent
3.16 3.33 3.63 3.29 3.61
Mining Production -5.80
percent
-3.43 -2.38 -1.86 -1.59 -1.31
Non Manufacturing Pmi 24.00
23 24 24 26 21
Steel Production 8759.78
Thousand Tonnes
8621 8773 8781 8736 8746
Cement Production 4832.00
Thousands of Tonnes
4919 4933 4934 4933 4933
Competitiveness Index 5.49
Points
5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49
Competitiveness Rank 9.00
9 9 9 9 9
Composite Pmi 51.80
51.6 51.49 51.51 51.52 51.52
Ease of Doing Business 34.00
36 36 36 36 39
Corruption Index 73.00
Points
74 74 75 75 73
Corruption Rank 20.00
19 19 19 19 19
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.50
Index Points
43.9 44 43.9 43.9 43.9
Retail Sales MoM 1.50
percent
1.2 0.8 0.04 0.05 1.2
Retail Sales YoY 1.80
percent
1.6 -0.9 1.7 2.1 0.9
Household Spending -1.20
percent
-0.91 0.71 -0.72 -0.72 2
Consumer Spending 301311.10
JPY Billion
304157 306094 305207 305228 316278
Disposable Personal Income 654.96
JPY Thousand
362 767 365 610 820
Personal Savings 51.10
percent
11 50 5 42 48
Bank Lending Rate 1.00
percent
1 1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Households Debt To Gdp 57.40
percent of GDP
57.48 57.53 57.55 57.56 57.6
Consumer Credit 342789.00
JPY Billion
359274 365692 371555 377149 414719
Gasoline Prices 1.36
USD/Liter
1.4 1.32 1.25 1.18 0.62
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Starts -7.10
percent
-6.29 0.6 -5.35 -5.34 1.5
Construction Orders -6.50
percent
-1.87 2.2 -1.44 -1.44 2.2
Housing Index 112.87
Index Points
114 113 114 113 113
Home Ownership Rate 61.70
percent
61.77 61.8 61.82 61.84 62.11
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86
percent
30.86 30.86 27 27 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95
percent
55.95 55.95 56 56 56
Sales Tax Rate 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 10
Social Security Rate 29.20
percent
29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.75
percent
14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.45
percent
14.45 14.45 14.45 14.45 14.54
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 4.06
celsius
22.56 8.85 2.06 19.56 12.24
Precipitation 102.03
mm
202 108 82.4 136 139