Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.3 0.24 0.5 0.23 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.40 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 2 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -203.37 479 250 300 238 410 JPY Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 251 252 252 255 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 111.28 112 113 116 115 133 [+]
Stock Market 20132.67 19600 19400 18800 19000 15900 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.3 0.24 0.5 0.23 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.93 1.7 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 1.00 1 1.5 0.5 0.98 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 4383.10 4510 4510 4510 4870 5150 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 525151.00 526916 526564 527954 527450 528610 JPY Billion [+]
Gross National Product 549234.60 550028 550855 551864 552851 563928 JPY Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 123060.10 123373 123632 123857 124054 109000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP per capita 47150.40 45100 45100 45100 47691 46200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 37872.46 36000 36000 36000 37889 37000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4700.10 5604 5284 4963 5013 5437 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28188.70 28760 28820 28880 29022 30429 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 103814.20 108312 108307 108302 107843 113000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 233.30 224 225 225 228 231 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 30779.50 30815 30803 30791 30765 30566 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Services 22201.40 63793 52569 41345 50530 85779 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 24766.70 24522 24768 25014 24945 24808 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 8424.00 8544 8884 9223 9418 11527 JPY Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 65220.00 65194 65342 65451 65559 66458 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1860.00 1846 1863 1854 1861 1858 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 6932.00 6966 7000 7040 7080 7518 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 21349.00 21269 21167 21149 21157 21158 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 58.50 58.86 58.21 58.18 58.39 58.31 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.30 60.89 60.93 60.93 60.93 60.93 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.3 1.29 1.28 1.29 1.72 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.00 4.79 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 percent [+]
Productivity 112.20 105 108 104 108 104 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 937.80 939 942 944 946 954 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 351.59 378 386 389 385 386 Thousand [+]
Wages 308.07 539 308 672 322 701 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 335.47 556 332 808 350 822 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wage Growth 0.50 0.31 0.37 0.34 0.34 0.33 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 823.00 823 823 823 860 900 JPY/Hour [+]
Population 126.86 127 127 127 127 126 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.40 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.30 100 101 103 101 113 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.10 100 102 103 100 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.30 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.36 2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 101.00 104 101 104 101 104 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 98.40 103 98.5 98.52 98.53 105 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 94.60 94.83 94.88 94.82 94.8 94.8 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 93.50 94.79 95.53 95.5 95.47 95.49 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.90 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.10 2.2 2.22 1.87 1.36 1 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 99.80 99.79 99.77 99.75 99.73 99.51 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 98.20 98.43 98.39 98.37 98.38 98.38 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.13 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 95243.90 95067 95044 95037 95051 95047 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 713335.40 710725 714232 715023 715266 715315 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 973785.20 972407 983685 993076 1001464 1090485 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1294684.10 1296194 1299577 1302129 1304163 1311725 JPY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 500800.80 506064 523564 540991 558213 736379 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1251868.00 1253661 1262015 1266492 1269900 1299779 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 446592.50 446787 446606 446603 446600 446593 JPY Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30 0.31 0.3 0.28 0.28 0.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment -331.60 -44.59 -1.73 -1.35 -1.35 -1.35 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 1090.10 347 183 182 182 182 JPY Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 231.10 232 234 235 234 235 percent [+]
Loan Growth 3.20 3.27 3.34 3.34 3.34 3.34 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -203.37 479 250 300 238 410 JPY Billion [+]
Exports 5851.36 5765 5850 5900 6303 6450 JPY Billion [+]
Imports 6054.73 5286 5600 5600 6063 6040 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account 1951.90 1246 2021 1715 1922 1860 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.70 2.3 3.32 3.13 3.19 2.42 percent [+]
External Debt 387147.00 394718 400208 410844 415188 474042 JPY Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 101.20 100 99.46 99.26 99.21 99.2 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 4658.00 14073 13628 13539 13621 13650 JPY Hundreds Million [+]
Capital Flows 10673.00 15362 17788 17806 17808 17811 JPY HML [+]
Tourism Revenues 14478000.00 15337515 15905155 15628150 15762886 15718805 JPY Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2294700.00 2315085 2335602 2352311 2362375 2377460 [+]
Gold Reserves 765.22 765 765 765 765 765 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 2.45 2.15 2.4 2.65 2.39 0.11 [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 3.97 3.96 3.96 3.96 3.96 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 251 252 252 255 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.50 -4.63 -4.66 -4.69 -4.66 -4.54 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -44416.00 -111978 -39015 -49950 9066 -56668 JPY HND Million [+]
Government Spending 105884.10 106204 106524 106844 107164 110661 JPY Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 41569.00 41418 41582 41746 41812 42204 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 971.00 998 983 996 987 991 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 39.47 39.16 38.97 38.77 38.62 37.69 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 12.00 5 14.12 10 14.35 2 [+]
Services Pmi 53.00 52.6 52.5 52.1 52 50.8 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.00 52 52.3 52.4 51.8 51 [+]
Industrial Production 5.70 2.3 2.5 2.86 5.89 4.39 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 4.00 0.1 0.16 0.4 0.09 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.70 1.62 5.86 1.2 5.9 3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 104.10 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
New Orders 939.78 986 979 980 980 980 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders -3.10 0.27 0.14 0.08 0.09 0.09 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -1002.30 -729 -510 -19.57 336 522 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 802.00 722 717 734 742 737 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 20131.44 21359 19545 21667 20749 21442 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 117.70 119 121 122 122 123 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 48.60 48.42 47.28 46.68 46.21 44.9 [+]
Car Production 638295.00 742026 701462 698683 707570 708069 Units [+]
Car Registrations 206936.00 289992 268261 213017 270533 238208 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 104.50 104 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 5.00 8.71 9.46 10.7 9.7 9.69 [+]
Steel Production 8951.48 8914 8834 8859 8866 8863 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Private Investment 4.50 5.5 6.59 4.03 3.82 4.32 percent [+]
Mining Production 4.70 0.36 -0.35 -0.96 -1.27 -1.58 percent [+]
Non Manufacturing Pmi 20.00 21.03 21.7 22.06 22.36 22.78 [+]
Cement Production 4929.00 5023 4869 4898 4923 4918 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.49 5.44 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 8.00 8 8 8 9 5 [+]
Composite Pmi 53.40 52.32 51.1 51.03 51.22 51.22 [+]
Corruption Index 72.00 71 71 70 71 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 20.00 18 18 18 18 18 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 34.00 36 37 38 39 45 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.60 43.79 43.7 43.64 43.63 43.63 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.40 0.7 0.12 1.2 0.04 1.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.20 1 2.12 0.5 2.12 0.9 percent [+]
Household Spending -1.40 -0.85 -0.78 0.5 -0.78 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 297894.70 298285 298556 299016 299368 303223 JPY Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 384.30 455 400 443 429 431 JPY Thousand [+]
Personal Savings 8.20 21.69 10.95 19.87 13.72 16.15 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.2 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 62.50 62.19 61.25 61.14 61.02 60.12 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Credit 246374.00 249755 251073 252753 253943 264127 JPY Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.19 1.16 1.1 1.1 1 0.94 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Starts 1.90 4.2 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders -0.20 -7 4.3 3 -1 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 109.89 111 112 112 112 113 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.90 61.94 61.98 62.02 62.04 62.03 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86 30.86 30.86 30.86 30 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95 50.84 54.67 55.95 55.95 55.95 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 8.00 8 8 8 8 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 29.60 29.25 29.9 30.03 29.95 29.94 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.20 15.02 16.43 16.59 16.79 18.54 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.40 14.22 14.43 14.47 14.49 14.6 percent [+]