Japan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.50 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.8 percent
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.8 percent
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1 percent
Balance of Trade 797.35 704 89.31 250 191 410 JPY Billion
Government Debt to GDP 253.00 251 250 252 247 246 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 107.39
108 110 112 114 122
Stock Market 22191.18
points
20471 19710 18976 18270 15700
Government Bond 10Y 0.04
percent
0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.2
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00
percent
2.1 2 2.1 2 1.7
GDP Growth Annualized 1.60
percent
2.2 2.5 2.7 2.16 2.9
GDP 4940.16
USD Billion
5870 5870 5870 6110 6660
GDP Constant Prices 535479.50
JPY Billion
541360 544010 546725 546189 564915
Gross National Product 558614.10
JPY Billion
568184 571381 570345 569786 589322
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 128003.70
JPY Billion
130000 130000 131000 131000 135000
GDP per capita 47607.70
USD
45500 45500 45500 46000 46200
GDP per capita PPP 38239.80
USD
38028 38111 36400 36650 37000
GDP From Agriculture 4272.10
JPY Billion
4362 4358 4440 4358 4588
GDP From Construction 28365.30
JPY Billion
28961 28933 29482 28933 30463
GDP From Manufacturing 107759.60
JPY Billion
110023 109915 112003 109915 115730
GDP From Mining 213.80
JPY Billion
218 218 222 218 230
GDP From Public Administration 26247.90
JPY Billion
26799 26773 27281 26773 28189
GDP From Services 21864.70
JPY Billion
22324 22302 22726 22302 23482
GDP From Transport 24250.60
JPY Billion
24760 24736 25206 24736 26044
GDP From Utilities 8743.10
JPY Billion
8927 8918 9087 8918 9390
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.50
percent
2.4 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.8
Employed Persons 66460.00
Thousand
66560 66743 66940 67124 68476
Unemployed Persons 1690.00
Thousand
1664 1668 1665 1667 1666
Part Time Employment 7308.00
Thousand
7197 7192 7187 7182 7127
Full Time Employment 21859.00
Thousand
21313 21227 21312 21291 21284
Employment Rate 59.30
percent
59.3 59.3 59.4 59.5 59.7
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.80
percent
61 61 61.1 61.2 61.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30
percent
1.3 1.29 1.28 1.29 1.64
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.20
percent
4.02 4.11 4.12 4.12 4.12
Productivity 106.50
Index Points
98.42 100 101 101 101
Job Vacancies 962.16
Thousand
967 963 962 961 958
Job Advertisements 356.98
Thousand
351 358 366 348 358
Wages 295817.00
JPY/Month
545000 306000 689000 328000 707000
Wages in Manufacturing 328615.00
JPY/Month
563000 342000 825000 356000 846000
Wage Growth 1.30
percent
0.46 0.5 0.48 0.51 0.51
Minimum Wages 848.00
JPY/Hour
848 848 848 870 900
Population 126.71
Million
126 127 126 127 124
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50
percent
1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.03 0.03 0.2 0.03 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.30
Index Points
102 102 103 103 106
Core Consumer Prices 100.60
Index Points
101 101 102 102 105
Core Inflation Rate 1.00
percent
1.1 1.1 1 1.2 2
GDP Deflator 104.70
Index Points
105 102 105 102 105
Producer Prices 100.30
Index Points
101 102 103 104 108
Export Prices 95.20
Index Points
96.26 96.76 97.22 97.68 102
Import Prices 95.00
Index Points
96.04 95.98 95.9 95.82 95.33
Food Inflation 3.00
percent
2.9 3 2.7 2.3 1.9
Producer Prices Change 2.10
percent
2.9 3 3.2 2.9 1.8
CPI Housing Utilities 99.60
Index Points
101 101 101 103 105
CPI Transportation 99.40
Index Points
99.87 99.17 101 101 104
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate -0.10
percent
-0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1
Interbank Rate -0.04
percent
-0.02 -0.02 -0.02 0.08 0.18
Money Supply M0 99005.60
JPY Billion
96275 96359 96672 96696 96637
Money Supply M1 741745.40
JPY Billion
735844 735926 735737 735413 731315
Money Supply M2 990849.00
JPY Billion
986828 986962 986966 986840 985019
Money Supply M3 1323587.90
JPY Billion
1325505 1328247 1330158 1331385 1322924
Central Bank Balance Sheet 528520.00
JPY Billion
538194 537362 531062 521311 526259
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1268300.00
USD Million
1259089 1257151 1255443 1253846 1237386
Loans to Private Sector 454740.40
JPY Billion
452655 449592 448372 449298 450374
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30
percent
0.25 0.15 0.05 0.04 0.5
Foreign Stock Investment 308.30
JPY Billion
-20 -180 -120 -124 250
Foreign Bond Investment 797.60
JPY Billion
176 175 175 175 175
Private Debt to GDP 229.40
percent
228 227 226 227 227
Loan Growth 2.00
percent
2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 797.35
JPY Billion
704 89.31 250 191 410
Exports 7381.87
JPY Billion
6614 6582 6200 6334 6450
Imports 6584.53
JPY Billion
5910 6493 5950 6143 6040
Current Account 2076.00
JPY Billion
2094 1136 2191 1601 1696
Current Account to GDP 3.70
percent
3.07 3.79 2.58 2.66 2.67
External Debt 404921.00
JPY Billion
403160 401926 402614 402231 402368
Terms of Trade 100.20
Index Points
100 101 102 102 107
Foreign Direct Investment 8202.00
JPY Hundreds Million
7086 10966 12891 12525 11997
Capital Flows 15267.00
JPY HML
11248 11151 12107 12655 12456
Tourism Revenues 14040000.00
JPY Thousand
18902070 18902324 18902333 18902333 18902333
Tourist Arrivals 2509300.00
2455900 2495800 2478400 2461000 2469500
Gold Reserves 765.20
Tonnes
765 765 765 765 762
Terrorism Index 3.60
2.5 2.2 1.91 1.5 1.33
Crude Oil Production 4.00
BBL/D/1K
4.1 4.15 4.2 4.25 4.71
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 253.00
percent
251 250 252 247 246
Government Budget -4.50
percent of GDP
-4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5
Government Budget Value -49945.00
JPY HND Million
-53918 -54637 -54452 -54475 -54453
Government Spending 106173.70
JPY Billion
108351 108305 108403 108297 112010
Military Expenditure 41569.00
USD Million
41368 41499 41629 41646 41722
Asylum Applications 1982.00
Persons
1762 1764 1766 1766 1765
Government Spending To Gdp 39.39
percent
39.11 38.9 38.69 38.53 37.9
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 24.00
Index Points
20 18 17 20.97 2
Manufacturing PMI 53.10
52.4 52.4 51.9 52 51
Services Pmi 50.90
Index Points
51.7 51.3 52.5 52 50.8
Industrial Production 1.62
percent
1.17 1.12 3.31 1.12 4.39
Industrial Production Mom 0.00
percent
0.36 -0.05 0.7 0 0.1
Manufacturing Production 1.72
percent
4.68 4.6 2.5 4.64 3
Capacity Utilization 101.90
Index Points
98.07 99.26 100 101 105
New Orders 1085.58
JPY Billion
1007 1068 988 1038 979
Machinery Orders 2.10
percent
9.5 3 -0.6 1.7 0.2
Changes in Inventories 1203.30
JPY Billion
213 140 157 153 154
Bankruptcies 789.00
Companies
701 674 701 679 689
Corporate Profits 20941.04
JPY Billion
20794 18894 20667 19013 20183
Coincident Index 115.60
117 116 117 117 117
Economy Watchers Survey 48.90
49.67 49.86 49.92 49.94 49.95
Car Production 741417.00
Units
719431 729586 688576 726652 694207
Car Registrations 378898.00
260424 258032 259487 262323 264962
Leading Economic Index 105.80
Index Points
105 105 106 106 106
Small Business Sentiment 15.00
13.97 11.37 8.51 5.54 -8.83
Internet Speed 20171.96
KBps
20701 20612 20490 20442 19276
IP Addresses 43689566.00
IP
42319334 42038894 41765709 41503516 39432646
Private Investment 4.30
percent
3.52 3.38 3.43 3.41 3.42
Mining Production -9.50
percent
7.71 5.82 6.11 6.09 6.13
Steel Production 8295.56
Thousand Tonnes
8558 8437 8493 8539 8511
Non Manufacturing Pmi 23.00
23.84 23.47 23.63 23.56 23.58
Cement Production 4496.00
Thousands of Tonnes
4875 5290 4872 5157 5054
Competitiveness Index 5.49
Points
5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48
Competitiveness Rank 9.00
8 8 8 8 8
Composite Pmi 51.30
52.5 52.37 52.42 52.37 52.39
Ease of Doing Business 34.00
34 34 33 33 27
Corruption Index 73.00
Points
73 73 73 73 73
Corruption Rank 20.00
20 20 20 20 20
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 44.30
Index Points
43.7 43.9 44 43.9 43.9
Retail Sales MoM 0.40
percent
-0.03 0.06 0.8 0.06 1.2
Retail Sales YoY 1.60
percent
1.48 1.36 0.9 1.25 0.9
Household Spending -0.90
percent
-0.44 -0.58 0.71 -0.67 2
Consumer Spending 300525.40
JPY Billion
307241 304959 306836 306536 317045
Disposable Personal Income 420.06
JPY Thousand
411 483 367 505 440
Personal Savings 50.10
percent
45 11 50 3 48
Bank Lending Rate 1.00
percent
0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.2
Households Debt To Gdp 57.10
percent of GDP
57.25 57.32 57.41 57.49 58.41
Consumer Credit 337012.00
JPY Billion
333397 333254 333280 333275 333276
Gasoline Prices 1.35
USD/Liter
1.17 1.1 1.03 1.17 0.69
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Starts -2.60
percent
1.1 -3.61 0.6 -3.53 1.5
Construction Orders 19.20
percent
-1 5.02 2.2 5 2.2
Housing Index 109.01
Index Points
109 110 109 110 109
Home Ownership Rate 61.70
percent
61.74 61.77 61.8 61.82 62.11
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86
percent
30.86 30.86 30.86 27 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95
percent
55.95 55.95 55.95 56 56
Sales Tax Rate 8.00
percent
8 8 8 10 10
Social Security Rate 29.20
percent
29.2 29.2 29.2 29 29
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.75
percent
14.27 14.27 14.27 14.38 13.89
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.45
percent
14.25 14.25 14.25 14.24 13.87
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 4.06
celsius
14.42 22.56 8.85 2.06 12.24
Precipitation 102.03
mm
154 202 108 82.4 139