Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.40 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 2 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 418.77 250 300 306 303 410 JPY Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 252 252 252 255 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 109.14 114 115 117 118 130 [+]
Stock Market 19434.64 19800 19600 19400 19200 17000 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 1.3 1.1 1 0.9 1.7 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 4.00 1.5 0.5 1.44 0.98 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 4939.38 5350 5350 5870 5870 6660 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 531530.60 531641 533815 533887 535153 536101 JPY Billion [+]
Gross National Product 555798.60 550855 551864 552851 553850 563928 JPY Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 127143.10 127942 128826 129480 130122 109000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP per capita 47607.70 45100 45100 48088 48183 46200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38239.80 36000 36000 37889 37895 37000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4700.10 5284 4963 5013 5062 5437 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28188.70 28820 28880 29022 29163 30429 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 103814.20 108307 108302 107843 107385 113000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 233.30 225 225 228 230 231 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 30779.50 30803 30791 30765 30739 30566 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Services 22201.40 52569 41345 50530 59715 85779 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 24766.70 24768 25014 24945 24876 24808 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 8424.00 8884 9223 9418 9613 11527 JPY Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 65310.00 65332 65315 65328 65318 65322 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1890.00 1895 1904 1900 1903 1902 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 7133.00 7146 7189 7230 7270 7678 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 21263.00 21161 21147 21156 21157 21157 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.30 58.58 58.16 58.55 58.54 58.47 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.00 61.1 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.29 1.3 1.72 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.20 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 percent [+]
Productivity 101.40 102 97.37 102 97.36 97.44 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 961.54 966 973 979 985 1006 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 362.56 384 384 380 383 382 Thousand [+]
Wages 526.04 308 672 322 545 701 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 557.72 332 808 350 563 822 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wage Growth -0.40 0.19 0.12 0.15 0.13 0.13 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 823.00 823 823 860 860 900 JPY/Hour [+]
Population 126.86 126 126 126 126 124 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.40 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.1 0.1 0.01 0.01 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.20 101 103 100 100 113 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.20 102 103 100 100 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.40 0.1 0.4 0.43 0.43 2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 103.90 101 104 101 104 104 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 98.80 99.08 99.29 99.37 99.4 105 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 95.00 93.44 93.59 93.63 93.61 93.61 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 91.10 89.26 89.28 89.32 89.3 89.3 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.80 1.3 1.3 0.83 0.83 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.60 2.72 2.54 2.02 1.38 1 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 99.70 99.66 99.62 99.59 99.55 99.19 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 98.30 98.24 98.23 98.23 98.24 98.24 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 0.13 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 95945.50 95030 95021 95036 95032 95032 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 714971.60 716389 717214 717488 717543 717556 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 978484.70 986734 996598 1005781 1014690 1100958 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1301853.50 1307578 1316919 1326133 1335277 1423422 JPY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 505560.20 515557 530997 546550 561952 705858 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1260040.00 1256416 1260016 1262865 1265485 1288454 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 449217.70 446791 446777 446771 446766 446762 JPY Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30 0.3 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment -302.50 -202 62 -620 -20 250 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -145.50 199 191 191 191 191 JPY Billion [+]
Loan Growth 3.30 3.37 3.47 3.52 3.55 3.61 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 231.10 234 235 234 233 235 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 418.77 250 300 306 303 410 JPY Billion [+]
Exports 6494.89 5850 5900 6434 6420 6450 JPY Billion [+]
Imports 6076.12 5600 5600 6111 6109 6040 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account 934.60 2001 1578 1857 1728 1766 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.70 3.32 3.13 3.19 3.25 2.42 percent [+]
External Debt 387147.00 400208 410844 415188 420746 474042 JPY Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 104.30 105 105 105 106 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 14614.00 13696 13741 13835 13864 13872 JPY Hundreds Million [+]
Capital Flows 13292.00 17789 17807 17809 17813 17812 JPY HML [+]
Tourism Revenues 21463000.00 18924967 16734781 18114350 17245241 17577881 JPY Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2681500.00 2365761 2379864 2388333 2393257 2399730 [+]
Gold Reserves 765.22 765 765 765 765 765 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 2.45 2.4 2.65 2.39 2.12 0.11 [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 3.96 3.96 3.96 3.96 3.96 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 252 252 252 255 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.50 -4.66 -4.69 -4.66 -4.62 -4.54 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 17171.00 -40957 -50988 369 -100209 -58865 JPY HND Million [+]
Government Spending 106143.10 106477 106795 107152 107518 111542 JPY Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 41569.00 41582 41746 41812 41879 42204 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 971.00 983 996 987 994 991 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 39.47 38.97 38.77 38.62 38.47 37.69 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 17.00 19.15 10 21.08 21.42 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.80 52.3 52.4 51.8 51 51 [+]
Services Pmi 52.00 52.5 52.1 52 51.7 50.8 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 5.50 2.5 2.86 5.98 5.98 4.39 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.20 0.19 0.4 0.09 0.09 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.50 7.02 1.2 7.11 7.11 3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 101.90 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
New Orders 966.13 957 957 957 957 957 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders -1.90 -0.83 -0.34 -0.34 -0.35 -0.35 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -876.40 -533 -30.82 367 618 488 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 714.00 711 727 736 732 731 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 20131.44 19545 21667 20749 21670 21442 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 117.20 118 118 118 119 119 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 49.70 48.5 47.6 46.93 46.42 45.04 [+]
Car Production 740349.00 663679 670977 687389 689437 685936 Units [+]
Car Registrations 241127.00 261973 189792 232427 200233 203418 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 106.30 107 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 7.00 6.66 7.06 5.75 6.18 5.98 [+]
Steel Production 8390.94 8564 8591 8588 8580 8581 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Non Manufacturing Pmi 23.00 24.6 25.67 26.26 26.72 27.4 [+]
Private Investment 4.50 6.59 4.03 3.82 3.26 4.32 percent [+]
Mining Production 7.30 1.01 -0.3 -0.9 -1.21 -1.55 percent [+]
Cement Production 4851.00 4794 4845 4859 4855 4854 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.47 5.47 5.49 5.49 5.44 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 8.00 8 8 9 9 5 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.80 51.13 51.09 51.31 51.34 51.31 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 34.00 37 38 39 39 45 [+]
Corruption Index 72.00 71 70 71 71 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 20.00 18 18 18 18 18 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.80 44 44.16 44.14 44.13 44.14 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 0.12 1.2 0.03 0.04 1.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.10 2.15 0.5 2.15 2.15 0.9 percent [+]
Household Spending 2.30 0.42 0.5 -0.67 -0.73 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 301474.10 301378 301896 302789 303078 307843 JPY Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 593.99 392 454 402 438 427 JPY Thousand [+]
Personal Savings 42.10 7.19 20.84 11.16 19.13 15.85 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.2 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 62.50 61.25 61.14 61.02 60.88 60.12 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Credit 334522.00 389870 410424 449077 468499 629196 JPY Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.13 1.1 0.94 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Starts 1.70 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 2.30 4.3 3 -1 -1 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 110.63 112 113 113 113 114 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.90 61.98 62.02 62.04 62.06 62.03 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86 30.86 30.86 30 30 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95 54.67 55.95 55.95 55.95 55.95 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 8.00 8 8 8 8 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 29.60 29.9 30.03 29.95 29.88 29.94 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.20 16.43 16.59 16.79 16.99 18.54 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.40 14.43 14.47 14.49 14.5 14.6 percent [+]