Japan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.80 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 percent
Inflation Rate 1.00 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 1 percent
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent
Balance of Trade 358.97 314 319 333 250 410 JPY Billion
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 249 250 250 251 245 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 106.30
113 115 117 119 128
Stock Market 21720.25
points
23220 22526 21853 21200 16629
Government Bond 10Y 0.06
percent
0.11 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.51
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10
percent
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.50
percent
1.2 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7
GDP Growth Annualized 0.50
percent
2 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9
GDP 4940.16
USD Billion
5870 5870 5870 5870 6660
GDP Constant Prices 533671.90
JPY Billion
534431 534830 534979 535033 533217
Gross National Product 558614.10
JPY Billion
559623 559931 559833 559909 557716
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 127552.90
JPY Billion
127659 127571 127489 127380 109000
GDP per capita 47607.70
USD
47548 47638 47729 45500 46200
GDP per capita PPP 38239.80
USD
37946 38028 38111 36400 37000
GDP From Agriculture 4272.10
JPY Billion
4679 4632 4586 4540 5311
GDP From Construction 28365.30
JPY Billion
29340 29339 29339 29338 31618
GDP From Manufacturing 107759.60
JPY Billion
105755 105862 105968 106074 113000
GDP From Mining 213.80
JPY Billion
243 237 232 226 269
GDP From Public Administration 30779.50
JPY Billion
30748 30711 30675 30639 29181
GDP From Services 21864.70
JPY Billion
32841 42795 52749 62703 81897
GDP From Transport 24250.60
JPY Billion
24469 24353 24237 24121 24029
GDP From Utilities 8743.10
JPY Billion
9314 9436 9559 9681 11329
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80
percent
2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8
Employed Persons 65510.00
Thousand
65500 65493 65489 65485 65447
Unemployed Persons 1860.00
Thousand
1861 1865 1869 1873 1915
Part Time Employment 7289.00
Thousand
7264 7260 7255 7250 7189
Full Time Employment 21136.00
Thousand
21070 20996 20931 20874 20550
Employment Rate 58.90
percent
59.13 59.14 59.18 59.23 59.54
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.50
percent
60.84 60.9 60.99 61.1 61.64
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30
percent
1.29 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.63
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.60
percent
4.52 4.61 4.63 4.65 4.92
Productivity 103.90
Index Points
101 101 100 99.74 95.77
Job Vacancies 1026.96
Thousand
1036 1035 1033 1030 1002
Job Advertisements 304.44
Thousand
349 346 335 333 305
Wages 666448.00
JPY/Month
322000 545000 306000 689000 707000
Wages in Manufacturing 814939.00
JPY/Month
350000 563000 342000 812000 826000
Wage Growth 0.70
percent
0.78 0.8 0.86 0.9 1.23
Minimum Wages 848.00
JPY/Hour
848 848 848 848 900
Population 126.86
Million
126 126 127 126 124
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00
percent
0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.06 0.02 0.02 0.2 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.20
Index Points
101 101 101 109 113
Core Consumer Prices 100.70
Index Points
101 101 101 107 111
Core Inflation Rate 0.90
percent
0.9 0.8 0.9 1 2
GDP Deflator 104.70
Index Points
102 105 102 105 104
Producer Prices 100.30
Index Points
100 100 100 100 105
Export Prices 97.30
Index Points
97.33 97.66 98 98.34 102
Import Prices 96.60
Index Points
96.3 96.68 97.17 97.63 102
Food Inflation 1.80
percent
1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5
Producer Prices Change 2.70
percent
3.7 4 3.6 3.2 1.8
CPI Housing Utilities 99.60
Index Points
99.47 99.36 99.26 99.19 98.67
CPI Transportation 99.20
Index Points
99.18 99.08 98.99 98.91 98.22
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.10
percent
-0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Interbank Rate -0.07
percent
-0.06 -0.05 -0.03 0 0.13
Money Supply M0 99257.00
JPY Billion
98421 98590 98602 98578 98370
Money Supply M1 736984.70
JPY Billion
738641 739441 739533 739404 736264
Money Supply M2 991990.00
JPY Billion
995240 996428 996709 996716 995137
Money Supply M3 1318240.60
JPY Billion
1320865 1323930 1326045 1327423 1317714
Central Bank Balance Sheet 526703.60
JPY Billion
528340 531246 532268 532403 525178
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1268535.00
USD Million
1270482 1272185 1272144 1271404 1257183
Loans to Private Sector 454911.10
JPY Billion
445462 445462 445462 445462 445462
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30
percent
0.42 0.38 0.34 0.3 0.5
Foreign Stock Investment -429.50
JPY Billion
-620 -20 -180 -120 250
Foreign Bond Investment -973.20
JPY Billion
145 175 175 175 175
Private Debt to GDP 231.10
percent
232 233 233 234 244
Loan Growth 2.40
percent
2.25 2.09 1.97 1.85 0.85
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 358.97
JPY Billion
314 319 333 250 410
Exports 7302.06
JPY Billion
7107 6983 6894 6200 6450
Imports 6943.09
JPY Billion
6929 6870 6811 5950 6040
Current Account 797.20
JPY Billion
1160 1153 1135 1126 1112
Current Account to GDP 3.70
percent
3.84 3.79 3.75 3.7 2.18
External Debt 408292.00
JPY Billion
407872 411407 410400 410476 397506
Terms of Trade 100.70
Index Points
101 101 101 101 104
Foreign Direct Investment 22663.00
JPY Hundreds Million
12157 9303 8038 7314 5851
Capital Flows 18664.00
JPY HML
11568 9857 9158 8475 5559
Tourism Revenues 20575000.00
JPY Thousand
19046783 16970161 17704219 16769512 13344143
Tourist Arrivals 2521300.00
2545100 2544500 2541500 2538000 2466600
Gold Reserves 765.22
Tonnes
765 765 765 765 762
Terrorism Index 3.60
2.79 2.5 2.2 1.91 1.33
Crude Oil Production 4.00
BBL/D/1K
4.21 4.26 4.31 4.36 4.89
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 250.40
percent
249 250 250 251 245
Government Budget -4.50
percent of GDP
-4.31 -4.3 -4.29 -4.28 -4.18
Government Budget Value -91308.00
JPY HND Million
-2928 -81146 -73936 -56973 -54586
Government Spending 106030.50
JPY Billion
106089 106057 106006 105997 105489
Military Expenditure 41569.00
USD Million
41282 41468 41653 41838 42445
Asylum Applications 1360.00
Persons
1329 1323 1318 1313 1250
Government Spending To Gdp 39.47
percent
39.02 38.86 38.69 38.52 38.29
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 25.00
Index Points
24.65 22.19 18.4 12 2
Manufacturing PMI 54.80
53.8 52.4 52.4 51.9 51
Services Pmi 51.90
Index Points
52 51.7 51.3 52.5 50.8
Industrial Production 4.40
percent
3.58 2.49 1.76 3.31 4.39
Industrial Production Mom 2.90
percent
0.22 0.12 0.11 0.2 0.1
Manufacturing Production 4.20
percent
3.36 2.35 1.69 2.5 3
Capacity Utilization 104.90
Index Points
106 106 107 107 109
New Orders 969.53
JPY Billion
1040 1040 1039 1039 1039
Machinery Orders -11.90
percent
-0.28 0.21 0.35 0.26 0.25
Changes in Inventories 515.10
JPY Billion
981 785 782 621 390
Bankruptcies 635.00
Companies
691 716 742 767 975
Corporate Profits 17892.83
JPY Billion
18504 19870 19043 18886 18210
Coincident Index 120.70
123 123 121 119 107
Economy Watchers Survey 49.90
48.07 47.67 46.9 46.4 45.13
Car Production 688677.00
Units
706249 705159 700196 696655 688307
Car Registrations 215058.00
245130 249675 252730 257282 262691
Leading Economic Index 107.90
Index Points
108 106 105 104 97.06
Small Business Sentiment 15.00
16.38 15.87 13.31 9.91 -10.32
Internet Speed 20171.96
KBps
20594 20701 20612 20490 19276
IP Addresses 43689566.00
IP
42604062 42319334 42038894 41765709 39432646
Private Investment 4.20
percent
1.96 0.93 0.14 -0.46 -1.5
Mining Production 0.10
percent
0.37 -0.41 -0.89 -1.14 -1.4
Steel Production 8719.38
Thousand Tonnes
8732 8736 8740 8742 8747
Non Manufacturing Pmi 23.00
22.06 20.75 19.19 17.52 5.54
Cement Production 5503.00
Thousands of Tonnes
5473 5500 5559 5619 6038
Competitiveness Index 5.49
Points
5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.4
Competitiveness Rank 9.00
9 9 9 9 7
Composite Pmi 52.80
51.84 51.37 51.4 51.46 51.45
Ease of Doing Business 34.00
34 34 34 33 27
Corruption Index 72.00
Points
73 72 72 71 72
Corruption Rank 20.00
20 20 19 19 19
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 44.70
Index Points
44.6 44.32 44 43.72 42.8
Retail Sales MoM 0.90
percent
0.03 -0.06 0 0.8 1.2
Retail Sales YoY 3.60
percent
2.53 2.52 2.53 0.9 0.9
Household Spending -0.10
percent
-0.58 -0.7 -0.71 0.71 2
Consumer Spending 300399.10
JPY Billion
300832 300394 300814 300820 300102
Disposable Personal Income 783.05
JPY Thousand
388 436 428 429 429
Personal Savings 50.10
percent
-0.81 18.2 9.15 14.23 12.41
Bank Lending Rate 1.00
percent
1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.2
Households Debt To Gdp 57.40
percent of GDP
54.1 53.79 53.41 53.23 53.19
Consumer Credit 332149.00
JPY Billion
374147 377986 398765 397013 391099
Gasoline Prices 1.33
USD/Liter
1.26 1.25 1.2 1.18 1.19
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Starts -2.10
percent
1.1 1.1 -0.5 0.6 1.5
Construction Orders -8.10
percent
-1 -1 2.45 2.2 2.2
Housing Index 108.75
Index Points
109 109 109 108 107
Home Ownership Rate 61.90
percent
61.88 61.91 61.95 61.99 61.37
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86
percent
30 30 30 30 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95
percent
56 56 56 56 56
Sales Tax Rate 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 10
Social Security Rate 29.20
percent
29 29 29 29 28
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.75
percent
14.27 14.27 14.27 14.27 13.89
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.45
percent
14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25 13.87
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 4.06
celsius
2.05 14.42 22.56 8.85 12.24
Precipitation 102.03
mm
82.24 154 202 108 139