Japan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.40 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.8 percent
Inflation Rate 1.30 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.5 percent
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1 percent
Balance of Trade 140.00 61.13 -123 1.87 -169 410 JPY Billion
Government Debt to GDP 253.00 254 256 256 256 258 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 112.52
114 115 116 116 118
Stock Market 22655.64
points
23944 23633 23325 23022 21848
Government Bond 10Y 0.15
percent
0.15 0.16 0.18 0.2 0.29
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent
0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00
percent
1.1 0.9 0.7 1.3 1
GDP Growth Annualized 3.00
percent
1.7 1.8 1.9 1.16 2.9
GDP 4872.14
USD Billion
4900 5110 5110 5110 5400
GDP Constant Prices 537599.20
JPY Billion
543355 538449 541362 544588 550435
Gross National Product 562569.10
JPY Billion
569825 562054 566507 569882 577250
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 129862.00
JPY Billion
130000 129000 131000 132000 131000
GDP per capita 48556.93
USD
49500 50100 50100 50100 51000
GDP per capita PPP 39002.22
USD
40000 41500 41500 41500 43000
GDP From Agriculture 4272.10
JPY Billion
4340 4311 4302 4328 4397
GDP From Construction 28365.30
JPY Billion
28819 28621 28564 28734 29195
GDP From Manufacturing 107759.60
JPY Billion
109484 108729 108514 109160 110910
GDP From Mining 213.80
JPY Billion
217 216 215 217 220
GDP From Public Administration 26247.90
JPY Billion
26668 26484 26432 26589 27015
GDP From Services 21864.70
JPY Billion
22215 22061 22018 22149 22504
GDP From Transport 24250.60
JPY Billion
24639 24469 24420 24566 24960
GDP From Utilities 8743.10
JPY Billion
8883 8822 8804 8857 8999
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.40
percent
2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.8
Employed Persons 66620.00
Thousand
66784 66922 67054 67176 67966
Unemployed Persons 1670.00
Thousand
1659 1648 1638 1630 1598
Part Time Employment 7283.00
Thousand
7338 7380 7422 7463 7837
Full Time Employment 22173.00
Thousand
22086 22105 22108 22107 22107
Employment Rate 60.20
percent
59.2 61.2 59.5 61.2 60.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70
percent
60.8 61.5 61.5 61.97 62.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.10
percent
3.9 3.91 3.91 3.91 3.91
Productivity 102.00
Index Points
98.44 103 98.5 103 98.53
Job Vacancies 964.10
Thousand
963 961 959 958 953
Wages 304876.00
JPY/Month
689000 328000 559000 314000 707000
Wages in Manufacturing 340191.00
JPY/Month
825000 356000 578000 352000 846000
Wage Growth 0.90
percent
1.62 1.71 1.6 1.68 1.66
Minimum Wages 848.00
JPY/Hour
848 870 870 870 900
Population 126.71
Million
126 127 126 126 124
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.30
percent
1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.60
Index Points
103 102 102 103 106
Core Consumer Prices 101.20
Index Points
107 102 102 102 111
Core Inflation Rate 0.90
percent
1 1.2 1.3 0.94 2
GDP Deflator 104.20
Index Points
105 102 105 102 105
Producer Prices 102.00
Index Points
103 103 104 105 108
Export Prices 97.60
Index Points
97.6 97.4 97.1 97.1 97.4
Import Prices 101.80
Index Points
100 100 100 100 101
Food Inflation 2.10
percent
1.6 1.7 2.6 1.4 1.9
Producer Prices Change 3.00
percent
3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 1.8
CPI Housing Utilities 99.60
Index Points
101 101 101 101 104
CPI Transportation 100.10
Index Points
100 101 101 101 103
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate -0.10
percent
-0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1
Interbank Rate -0.08
percent
-0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 0.03
Money Supply M0 99819.30
JPY Billion
99783 99772 99768 99766 99768
Money Supply M1 760836.30
JPY Billion
769648 778482 787023 795412 866578
Money Supply M2 1006523.60
JPY Billion
1015314 1022933 1030018 1037120 1101027
Money Supply M3 1340548.90
JPY Billion
1348754 1356974 1365139 1373245 1443605
Central Bank Balance Sheet 545534.90
JPY Billion
556365 566597 576270 585562 658470
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1259700.00
USD Million
1261331 1263060 1264778 1266462 1280074
Loans to Private Sector 459756.30
JPY Billion
460125 460002 459976 459970 459966
Deposit Interest Rate 0.32
percent
0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.42
Foreign Stock Investment 52.60
JPY Billion
-120 -51.38 -51.39 -51.39 250
Foreign Bond Investment 1016.90
JPY Billion
179 178 178 178 178
Private Debt to GDP 229.40
percent
226 227 228 228 227
Loan Growth 2.30
percent
2.2 2.4 2.3 2.51 2.4
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 140.00
JPY Billion
61.13 -123 1.87 -169 410
Exports 6726.65
JPY Billion
6724 6700 6690 6685 6450
Imports 6587.09
JPY Billion
6588 6823 6688 6854 6040
Current Account 1838.40
JPY Billion
1799 1918 1828 1861 1847
Current Account to GDP 4.02
percent
3.5 3 3 3 3.12
External Debt 426882.00
JPY Billion
429624 432772 432465 432932 424855
Terms of Trade 95.90
Index Points
97.31 97.21 96.71 96.71 96.31
Foreign Direct Investment 13545.00
JPY Hundreds Million
12620 12612 12614 12619 12620
Capital Flows 19120.00
JPY HML
5107 42654 12661 14389 12456
Tourism Revenues 17929000.00
JPY Thousand
19900225 22054451 20535670 21600476 21146828
Tourist Arrivals 2577800.00
2637100 2644200 2648200 2650800 2655500
Gold Reserves 765.20
Tonnes
765 765 765 765 765
Terrorism Index 3.60
2.2 3.6 1.5 1.5 1.3
Crude Oil Production 4.00
BBL/D/1K
3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 253.00
percent
254 256 256 256 258
Government Budget -4.50
percent of GDP
-4.4 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.4
Government Budget Value -113831.00
JPY HND Million
-54452 -54475 -54475 -54475 -54453
Government Spending 106792.20
JPY Billion
108270 107531 107540 108180 109680
Military Expenditure 46555.98
USD Million
46566 46686 46807 46927 47183
Asylum Applications 759.00
Persons
270 277 270 269 271
Government Spending To Gdp 39.05
percent
39.05 39.05 39.05 39.05 39.05
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 19.00
Index Points
17 21 20 18.3 2
Services Pmi 50.20
Index Points
52.5 52 51.3 50.8 50.8
Manufacturing PMI 52.50
51.9 52 53 51.78 51
Industrial Production 0.20
percent
3 -0.04 0.3 0.9 4
Industrial Production Mom 0.20
percent
0.7 0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.1
Manufacturing Production 0.30
percent
2.5 0.03 0.02 0.01 3
Capacity Utilization 101.40
Index Points
102 101 102 101 102
New Orders 1208.56
JPY Billion
1116 1119 1120 1120 1120
Machinery Orders 6.80
percent
-0.6 1.7 -1.4 0.12 0.2
Changes in Inventories 443.30
JPY Billion
226 285 327 393 423
Bankruptcies 621.00
Companies
672 670 670 668 669
Corporate Profits 26401.12
JPY Billion
24598 22164 26552 23405 25516
Coincident Index 117.50
118 118 118 118 118
Economy Watchers Survey 48.60
48.42 48.4 48.43 48.41 48.42
Car Production 684742.00
Units
688575 826652 794641 679238 694206
Car Registrations 265059.00
229486 251137 273989 255317 234962
Leading Economic Index 104.40
Index Points
104 104 104 104 104
Small Business Sentiment 14.00
13 15 12 10 -4
Internet Speed 20171.96
KBps
22872 23231 23638 24122 27785
IP Addresses 43689566.00
IP
43485720 43487420 43486465 43487120 43487808
Private Investment 12.80
percent
10.53 9.97 5.91 7.43 8.34
Mining Production -7.20
percent
-3.65 -2.56 -1.98 -1.69 -1.36
Non Manufacturing Pmi 22.00
24 24 26 21 21
Steel Production 8805.14
Thousand Tonnes
8664 8737 8673 8645 8670
Cement Production 4963.00
Thousands of Tonnes
4956 4971 4972 4971 4971
Competitiveness Index 5.49
Points
5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49
Competitiveness Rank 9.00
9 9 9 9 9
Composite Pmi 50.70
51.24 51.52 51.55 51.54 51.54
Ease of Doing Business 34.00
36 36 36 36 39
Corruption Index 73.00
Points
73 73 73 73 73
Corruption Rank 20.00
20 20 20 20 20
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.40
Index Points
44 43.9 43.9 43.42 43.9
Retail Sales MoM 0.90
percent
0.8 0.06 0.06 0.06 1.2
Retail Sales YoY 2.70
percent
-0.9 1.7 2.1 1.43 0.9
Household Spending 2.80
percent
0.71 -0.63 -0.7 -0.71 2
Consumer Spending 301316.40
JPY Billion
304597 301895 303426 305234 308566
Disposable Personal Income 422.64
JPY Thousand
767 365 610 427 820
Personal Savings 21.20
percent
50 5 42 10 48
Bank Lending Rate 1.00
percent
1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Households Debt To Gdp 57.40
percent of GDP
58.8 58 57.5 57.3 57.83
Consumer Credit 334396.00
JPY Billion
337370 337479 336246 337233 336742
Gasoline Prices 1.36
USD/Liter
1.19 1.12 1.06 0.98 0.84
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Starts 1.60
percent
0.6 -0.21 -0.13 -0.14 1.5
Construction Orders 0.50
percent
2.2 -1.89 -1.89 -1.88 2.2
Housing Index 112.36
Index Points
112 115 114 115 118
Home Ownership Rate 61.70
percent
61.8 61.82 61.84 61.86 62.11
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86
percent
30.86 30.86 30.86 30.86 30.86
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95
percent
55.95 55.95 55.95 55.95 55.95
Sales Tax Rate 8.00
percent
8 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 29.20
percent
29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.75
percent
14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.45
percent
14.45 14.45 14.45 14.45 14.45
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 4.06
celsius
8.85 2.06 19.56 16.55 12.24
Precipitation 102.03
mm
108 82.4 136 136 139