UK House Price Growth Slows in July

The UK Nationwide House Price Index rose 1.8% year-on-year in July 2026, slowing from a 2.2% increase in June and coming in slightly below market expectations of a 1.9% gain. Nationwide Chief Economist Robert Gardner said renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and the US, have pushed up energy prices and contributed to volatility in market interest rate expectations. However, he noted that easing consumer inflation and moderating wage growth have given the Bank of England greater scope to assess whether further policy tightening is needed to return inflation to target. Gardner also highlighted that the latest housing survey showed the average length of residence has remained broadly stable at around 14 years, with outright homeowners staying in the same property for nearly 24 years on average, while private renters typically remain in a home for around five years. On a monthly basis, house prices edged up 0.1%, following a flat reading in June.

The UK Nationwide House Price Index rose 2.2% year-on-year in June 2026, missing market expectations of 2.4% but accelerating from a 1.7% increase in May. Nationwide Chief Economist Robert Gardner said that easing geopolitical tensions and lower-than-expected inflation have strengthened expectations that the Bank of England may not need to raise interest rates, or at least by less than had previously been anticipated. He also noted that the decline in market interest rates underpinning fixed-rate mortgage pricing has already begun to improve affordability conditions. Gardner added that, if sustained, these trends should help restore household confidence and support a recovery in housing market activity in the coming quarters. Regionally, Northern Ireland remained the strongest-performing area in the second quarter, with house prices 8.6% higher than a year earlier. On a monthly basis, house prices showed a flat reading, in line with forecasts, following a 0.6% rise in May.

The UK Nationwide House Price Index rose 1.7% year-on-year in May 2026, easing from a 3.0% increase in April and marking the softest growth in three months. Compared to April, house prices dropped 0.6%, the first decline in five months, following a 0.4% gain, and exceeding expectations for a 0.1% fall. Nationwide Chief Economist Robert Gardner said the slowdown was partly driven by heightened uncertainty stemming from developments in the Middle East, which pushed up energy prices and market interest rates while weighing on consumer confidence and housing demand. Despite the softer momentum, he noted that the UK economy entered the shock on a stronger footing, supported by solid first-quarter growth and easing inflation. Gardner added that household finances remain relatively healthy, backed by low debt levels, sizable savings buffers and improving affordability, suggesting any housing market weakness could prove temporary if energy prices stabilize and geopolitical tensions ease.