UK GDP Expands 1% YoY in Q4, In Line With Preliminary Figures

The GDP in the UK expanded 1% year-on-year in the last three months of 2025, the smallest growth since Q1 2024 and following a 1.3% rise in Q3, matching the preliminary estimate. The production sector rebounded (0.6% vs -1.3%) led by utilities (3% vs -2%) and the services sector increased 1% (vs 1.5%) while construction stalled. On the expenditure side, a slowdown was seen for household spending (0.4% vs 0.6%), government expenditure (1.1% vs 1.8%), exports (1.2% vs 2%) and imports (1.9% vs 4.9%). On the other hand, gross fixed capital formation increased at a slightly faster pace (4.2% vs 3.9%). Considering full 2025, the economy grew 1.4%, revised up from 1.3% in the previous estimate and a 1.1% growth in 2024.

The UK economy expanded by 1.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, slowing from 1.2% in the previous quarter and slightly undershooting market expectations of 1.2%, according to preliminary estimates. It marked the weakest annual growth rate since the second quarter of 2024. The softer reading capped a challenging year for the economy, which grappled with significant tax increases, trade tensions linked to US President Donald Trump’s policies, and a major cyberattack on the country’s largest car manufacturer. Business and consumer confidence also remained subdued toward year-end ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ November 26 budget. Both the services and production sectors grew by 1.0% in Q4, while construction posted a modest 0.2% increase. For 2025 as a whole, the economy expanded by 1.3%, slightly above the 1.1% growth recorded in 2024.

The UK economy expanded 1.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, slightly down from 1.4% in Q2, confirming preliminary estimates. This marks the slowest annual growth in a year, as household consumption slowed to 0.7% (vs 1% in Q2) and government spending eased to 1.6% (vs 1.9%). Gross fixed capital formation also grew more slowly, rising 2.9% versus 3.3% in Q2, with business investment up 2.7% from 3.2% previously. Net trade weighed on growth, with imports surging 5% (vs 2%) and exports rising 2.7% (vs 2.3%). On the production side, services growth eased slightly to 1.4% (vs 1.5%), production fell 0.2% (vs a 0.2% decline in Q2), while construction growth picked up to 2.2% (vs 2%).