UK Annual Growth Beats Forecasts

The UK economy expanded by 1.1% year-over-year in Q1 2026, accelerating from 1.0% in the previous quarter and surpassing market expectations of 0.8%, according to preliminary estimates. Growth was driven by a 1.4% rise in services output, while production remained flat and construction declined by 1.3%. On the expenditure side, household consumption grew by 0.9% (up from 0.5% in Q4 2025), and government spending increased by 1.4% (from 1.0%). However, gross fixed capital formation slowed to 0.5% (down from 4.0%), partly due to a drop in business investment. Net trade weighed on growth as imports outpaced exports.

The GDP in the UK expanded 1% year-on-year in the last three months of 2025, the smallest growth since Q1 2024 and following a 1.3% rise in Q3, matching the preliminary estimate. The production sector rebounded (0.6% vs -1.3%) led by utilities (3% vs -2%) and the services sector increased 1% (vs 1.5%) while construction stalled. On the expenditure side, a slowdown was seen for household spending (0.4% vs 0.6%), government expenditure (1.1% vs 1.8%), exports (1.2% vs 2%) and imports (1.9% vs 4.9%). On the other hand, gross fixed capital formation increased at a slightly faster pace (4.2% vs 3.9%). Considering full 2025, the economy grew 1.4%, revised up from 1.3% in the previous estimate and a 1.1% growth in 2024.

The UK economy expanded by 1.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, slowing from 1.2% in the previous quarter and slightly undershooting market expectations of 1.2%, according to preliminary estimates. It marked the weakest annual growth rate since the second quarter of 2024. The softer reading capped a challenging year for the economy, which grappled with significant tax increases, trade tensions linked to US President Donald Trump’s policies, and a major cyberattack on the country’s largest car manufacturer. Business and consumer confidence also remained subdued toward year-end ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ November 26 budget. Both the services and production sectors grew by 1.0% in Q4, while construction posted a modest 0.2% increase. For 2025 as a whole, the economy expanded by 1.3%, slightly above the 1.1% growth recorded in 2024.