New Zealand Consumer Confidence Weakens in Q1

The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index in New Zealand fell to 94.7 in Q1 2026 from 96.5 in Q4 2025, signalling households became more pessimistic about economic conditions. The survey was conducted in the first two weeks of March, the same time as the war in the Middle East broke out, leading to large increases in fuel costs. Against that backdrop, households have grown a little more nervous about the economic outlook. A growing number of households actually see their financial position had been improving over the past year due to continued strength in export commodity prices, including for New Zealand’s key dairy exports and a large drop in borrowing costs over the past year. However, those improving domestic conditions have now been over taken by more worrying global events. The longer the conflict continues, the larger the resulting disruptions to economic activity and pressure on households' finance will be.

The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index in New Zealand rose to 96.5 in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 90.9 in the previous period, marking the highest of the year, but remaining just below long-run averages. The increase reflects easing borrowing costs and seasonal cheer, as large numbers of borrowers roll onto lower fixed mortgage rates and households feel some relief at the end of the year. According to Westpac, households are more optimistic about the economy’s trajectory and spending appetites have lifted, supported by lower interest costs and improving sentiment. The survey also noted that the labour market shows some improvements even though job creation remains limited. Regional results were mixed but broadly stronger, with Auckland among the most upbeat areas. These factors, together with firmer commodity prices, suggest that consumer confidence has strengthened heading into 2026 while still short of fully recovered levels.

The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index in New Zealand edged lower to 90.9 in the third quarter of 2025 from 91.2 in the previous period, still remaining at historically weak levels. The decline reflects ongoing pressures on households as rising living costs and economic uncertainty weigh on sentiment. According to Westpac, the economy has hit a mid-year soft patch, with higher expenses limiting confidence even as borrowing costs ease. The survey also highlighted weakness in the job market and continued softness in house prices as key concerns. These factors, combined with cost-of-living challenges, suggest that consumer confidence in New Zealand remains fragile.