Japan Q4 Business Mood Hits 4-Year High

The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers edged up to 15 in Q4 2025 from 14 in Q3, improving for a third quarter and marking the highest print since Q4 2021, amid the yen’s sustained weakness and firm global demand, notably from the AI sector. The latest reading matched market estimates, with confidence remaining upbeat among firms producing lumber & wood (0 vs -8 in Q3), pulp (34 vs 26), petroleum (33 vs 0), iron & steel (-11 vs -14), food & drinks (9 vs 6), chemicals (22 vs 15), electrical machinery (17 vs 16), shipbuilding (41 vs 36), and processed metals (8 vs 0). At the same time, sentiment stayed stable for textiles (at 4), general-purpose machinery (at 27), and production machinery (at 17), but fell for motor vehicles (9 vs 10), and business-oriented machinery (13 vs 22). Large firms planned to lift capital expenditure by 12.6% in Q4, after a 12.5% rise in Q3, topping forecasts of 12%. This was the strongest rise in investment intentions in eight quarters.

The Bank of Japan’s index for large manufacturers edged up to 14 in Q3 2025 from 13 in Q2, improving for the second straight quarter and marking the highest reading since Q4 2024, as a trade deal between Tokyo and Washington soothed concerns about U.S. tariffs. However, the latest result was below the market consensus of 15. Confidence was upbeat among firms producing textiles (4 vs 0 in Q2), chemicals (15 vs 14), ceramics, stone & clay (30 vs 17), general-purpose machinery (27 vs 23), production machinery (17 vs 15), electrical machinery (16 vs 11), shipbuilding & heavy machinery (36 vs 27), processed metals (0 vs -3), and motor vehicles (10 vs 8). At the same time, sentiment remained stable for business-oriented machinery (at 22) but fell for lumber & wood (-8 vs 0), petroleum and coal (0 vs 9), and iron & steel (-14 vs -3). Meanwhile, large firms planned to increase capital expenditure by 12.5% in Q3, after a 11.5% growth in Q1 and pointing to the strongest rise in seven quarters.

The Bank of Japan’s index for large manufacturers edged up to 13 in Q2 2025 from a one-year low of 12 in the previous period, beating market forecasts of 10, as the economy navigates through rising U.S. tariffs. Confidence improved among firms producing pulp & paper (29 vs 18 in Q2), chemicals (14 vs 13), petroleum and coal (9 vs 0), iron & steel (-3 vs -18), business-oriented machinery (22 vs 19), and non-ferrous metals (16 vs 15). At the same time, sentiment remained stable for producers of textiles (at 0), food & beverages (at 8), electrical machinery (at 11), and shipbuilding & heavy machinery (at 27). In contrast, confidence weakened for manufacturers of processed metals (-3 vs 3), general-purpose machinery (23 vs 27), production machinery (15 vs 17), and motor vehicles (8 vs 13). Meanwhile, large firms planned to increase capital expenditure by 11.5% in Q2, a sharp acceleration from a 3.5% growth in Q1 and marking the fastest expansion in 1-1/2 years.