German Consumer Morale Unexpectedly Falls

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator dropped to -24.7 heading into March 2026 from a marginally revised -24.2 in the prior period, missing market estimates of -23.1. Economic expectations weakened (4.3 vs 6.6 in February), reflecting a more cautious outlook amid persistent uncertainty. The willingness to buy also deteriorated sharply (-9.3 vs -4.0), while the propensity to save rose to a record high of 18.9 (vs 17.9), suggesting households remain defensive. In contrast, income expectations improved (6.5 vs 5.1), likely supported by easing inflation and wage gains. “Even though the economy appears to be recovering slightly, consumers remain skeptical,” said Rolf Bürkl, head of consumer climate at NIM. “Geopolitical tensions, but also challenges in social policy, are likely to keep uncertainty and thus also the willingness to save high,” he added.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator rose to -24.1 heading into February 2026, up from a near two-year low of -26.9 in the prior period, topping market forecasts of -25.8. Income expectations rebounded sharply (5.1 vs -6.9 in January), signaling easing pressure on household finances. Economic expectations also strongly picked up (6.6 vs 1.2), pointing to a much more optimistic outlook. Further, the willingness to buy improved (-4.0 vs -7.5), as inflation concerns waned. Meanwhile, the propensity to save slipped from its highest level since mid-2008 (17.9 vs 18.7). “With the current increase, the consumer climate has recovered a significant portion of the strong losses from the previous month. However, the level remains low,” said Rolf Buerkl, head of consumer climate at NIM. He cautioned that the upturn remains fragile amid geopolitical tensions and uncertain trade conditions, adding that it is unclear whether the positive trend can be sustained in the coming months.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator dropped sharply to -26.9 heading into January 2026 from a marginally revised -23.4 in the prior period, missing market forecasts of -23.2 and hitting its lowest level since April 2024. The decline reflected renewed household caution, with buying willingness slipping (-7.5 vs -6.0 in December) after two months of increases. Also, the propensity to save jumped to its highest since June 2008 (18.7 vs 13.7), as concerns over a possible inflation resurgence and political uncertainty around pension reforms weighed on sentiment. Income expectations fell for a third month (-6.9 vs -0.1), underscoring ongoing pressure on household finances. By contrast, economic expectations turned positive (1.2 vs -1.1), hinting at cautious optimism about the broader outlook. Rolf Buerkl, head of consumer climate at NIM, warned the deterioration casts a shadow over the final phase of the Christmas shopping season and risks a “false start” for consumer sentiment in 2026.