UK Shop Price Inflation Beats Forecasts

UK shop price inflation increased 1.2% year-on-year in May 2026, up from 1.0% in April, which had marked the softest growth in four months, and surpassed market expectations of 1.1%, due to a rebound in non-food costs. The acceleration reflected mounting pressures from elevated shipping and raw material costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Non-food prices rose 0.5% year-on-year, recovering from a 0.1% decline in April, mainly driven by rising costs for furniture and beauty products. Meanwhile, food inflation eased further to its lowest level in a year, at 2.7%, down from 3.1% in April, helping to dampen the broader rise in shop inflation in May. “Households did benefit from food inflation falling to its lowest level in a year, as intense competition among supermarkets continued to deliver value and savings,” Helen Dickinson said.

UK shop price inflation rose 1.0% year-on-year in April 2026, down from 1.2% in March and below market expectations of 1.5%. It marked the softest pace since last December and was below the three-month average of 1.1%, partly due to discounting in some goods during the Easter period. Food inflation slowed to 3.3% from 3.4% in March, as retailers offered discounts on Easter items such as chocolate. Meanwhile, non-food prices edged down 0.1% year-on-year, after inching up 0.1% in March. “Bigger discounts in clothing, furniture, and DIY goods helped pull down shop price inflation in April. With weakening consumer confidence, retailers competed harder on price to stimulate spring spending. While we’re yet to see the full force of the Middle East conflict feeding into consumer prices, it will not be long before it begins to,” said BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson.

UK shop price inflation rose 1.2% year-on-year in March 2026, up from 1.1% in February but slightly below market expectations of 1.3%, as the impact of the Middle East conflict began to ripple through prices. Food inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5% in February, matching the three-month average, while non-food inflation remained steady at 0.1% in March after a 0.1% decline in February. Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: "Higher costs resulting from the conflict in the Middle East are starting to feed into supply chains. While retailers will work with their suppliers to mitigate the impact on prices as far as possible, inflation will rise, although there are no indications it will reach the peaks of the last spike in April 2023.”