UK GDP Posts Surprise Expansion in March

The UK economy expanded by 0.1% month-on-month in May 2026, in line with market expectations and rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in April. Growth was driven solely by a 0.3% increase in services output, with professional, scientific and technical activities providing the largest positive contribution, supported by strength in scientific research and development and advertising services. Administrative and support services and health activities also advanced. These offset a 0.5% decline in production and a 0.8% fall in construction. In the three months to May, GDP grew 0.7%, marking a sixth consecutive three-month expansion, led by services, which rose 0.7%, while construction increased 1.6% and production edged up 0.1%. Compared with a year earlier, the GDP expanded 1.3%, below forecasts of 1.4% but marking the steepest growth since July 2025, and accelerating from a downwardly revised 1.1% increase in April.

The GDP in the UK contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in April 2026, in line with expectations and following a 0.3% expansion in March. This marked the first contraction since August last year, as the effects of the Middle East conflict began to ripple through the economy. Services output declined 0.2%, with the largest negative contributors being administrative and support service activities, which fell 2.2%, and arts, entertainment and recreation (-4.3%). Wholesale and retail trade, including motor vehicle repair, also declined 0.4%. On the other hand, information and communication provided the largest positive contribution, rising 1.1%. Meanwhile, production output was flat after a 0.2% decline in March, as gains in manufacturing and mining were offset by declines in utilities and water-related activities. In contrast, construction grew by 0.1%. On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 1.2%, the same pace as in March and slightly below a forecast of 1.3%.

The GDP in the UK expanded 0.3% month-on-month in March 2026, slowing from a downwardly revised 0.4% growth in February but defying expectations of a 0.2% contraction. Services were the main driver, rising 0.3%, led by information and communication, which grew 1.1% and extended four consecutive months of growth. Within the subsector, information service activities surged 6.0%, while computer programming, consultancy, and related activities increased 1.1%. Additional support came from accommodation and food services, up 1.3%, and human health and social work activities, which rose 0.4%. These gains were partly offset by a 0.2% decline in wholesale and retail trade, including motor vehicle repair. Elsewhere, construction grew 1.5%, while production fell 0.2%. On a yearly basis, GDP rose 1.2%, the strongest growth since July last year, accelerating from 1.0% in February and above forecasts of 0.7%.