UK GDP Unexpectedly Accelerates in February

The GDP in the UK expanded 0.3% month-on-month in March 2026, slowing from a downwardly revised 0.4% growth in February but defying expectations of a 0.2% contraction. Services were the main driver, rising 0.3%, led by information and communication, which grew 1.1% and extended four consecutive months of growth. Within the subsector, information service activities surged 6.0%, while computer programming, consultancy, and related activities increased 1.1%. Additional support came from accommodation and food services, up 1.3%, and human health and social work activities, which rose 0.4%. These gains were partly offset by a 0.2% decline in wholesale and retail trade, including motor vehicle repair. Elsewhere, construction grew 1.5%, while production fell 0.2%. On a yearly basis, GDP rose 1.2%, the strongest growth since July last year, accelerating from 1.0% in February and above forecasts of 0.7%.

The GDP in the UK expanded 0.5% month-on-month in February 2026, compared to expectations and January’s revised 0.1% growth. This marks the strongest growth since January 2024, with services rising 0.5% (vs +0.1% in January). The largest positive contribution came from administrative and support service activities (+2.0%), driven by a rebound in employment activities (+2.5%), alongside gains in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles (+0.7%). These were partly offset by a 0.3% decline in accommodation and food services. Production also rose 0.5%, reversing prior declines, supported by mining and quarrying (+3.9%) and energy supply (+1.5%). Construction grew 1.0%, led by private housing. On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 1.0%, the strongest growth since September last year. The latest data precedes the Middle East escalation. As a net energy importer, the UK is exposed to global energy price shocks from disrupted oil and gas exports in the region.

The GDP in the UK stalled mom in January 2026, following a 0.1% rise in December, and compared to forecasts of a 0.2% gain. Services showed no growth (vs +0.2% in the previous month), with the largest negative contribution coming from administrative and support service activities that fell 2.3%, driven by a 5.7% slump in employment activities, and a 3.9% drop in rental and leasing. In contrast, the largest positive contribution came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles (up 1%). Meanwhile, production dropped 0.1%, extending a 0.9% drop in December, led by falls in mining and quarrying (-3.2%) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (-0.3%). This decline was partially offset by growths of 1.9% in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, and of 0.1% in manufacturing. The construction sector grew 0.2%. Year-on-year, the economy expanded 0.8%. Considering the three months to January, the GDP grew 0.2%.