UK GDP Unexpectedly Accelerates in February

The GDP in the UK expanded 0.5% month-on-month in February 2026, compared to expectations and January’s revised 0.1% growth. This marks the strongest growth since January 2024, with services rising 0.5% (vs +0.1% in January). The largest positive contribution came from administrative and support service activities (+2.0%), driven by a rebound in employment activities (+2.5%), alongside gains in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles (+0.7%). These were partly offset by a 0.3% decline in accommodation and food services. Production also rose 0.5%, reversing prior declines, supported by mining and quarrying (+3.9%) and energy supply (+1.5%). Construction grew 1.0%, led by private housing. On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 1.0%, the strongest growth since September last year. The latest data precedes the Middle East escalation. As a net energy importer, the UK is exposed to global energy price shocks from disrupted oil and gas exports in the region.

The GDP in the UK stalled mom in January 2026, following a 0.1% rise in December, and compared to forecasts of a 0.2% gain. Services showed no growth (vs +0.2% in the previous month), with the largest negative contribution coming from administrative and support service activities that fell 2.3%, driven by a 5.7% slump in employment activities, and a 3.9% drop in rental and leasing. In contrast, the largest positive contribution came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles (up 1%). Meanwhile, production dropped 0.1%, extending a 0.9% drop in December, led by falls in mining and quarrying (-3.2%) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (-0.3%). This decline was partially offset by growths of 1.9% in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, and of 0.1% in manufacturing. The construction sector grew 0.2%. Year-on-year, the economy expanded 0.8%. Considering the three months to January, the GDP grew 0.2%.

The UK economy grew 0.1% month-on-month in December 2025, in line with market expectations and following a revised 0.2% increase in November. Services led the growth, rising 0.3% as gains in transportation and storage (+2.0%), administrative and support services (+1.4%), and food and beverage service activities (+1.6%) offset declines in sports activities and amusement and recreation (-5.9%) and human health and social work (-0.4%). Meanwhile, production output fell 0.9%, with all four production sectors declining: electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning (-1.7%), manufacturing (-0.5%), water supply, sewerage and waste management (-2.4%), and mining and quarrying (-0.7%). Construction dropped 0.5%, driven by a 2.5% fall in repair and maintenance, while new work rose 1.0% on the month. On a yearly basis, GDP grew 0.7%, the softest since Q2 2024, below the expected 1.1% and slowing from the 1.2% rise recorded in November.