UK GDP 3-Month Average Below Forecasts

The UK economy grew 0.1% in the three months to December 2025, ending two consecutive quarters of contraction but falling short of the expected 0.2% increase. Growth was mainly driven by a 1.2% rise in production output, following seven months of decline, with contributions from all four production sectors. Manufacturing rose 0.9% after five months of falls, electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning increased 3.1%, mining and quarrying grew 1.4%, and water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities rose 0.7%. Services output remained flat for the third consecutive month, as gains in administrative services, public administration, information and communication, and health were offset by falls in professional services and education. Construction declined 2.1%, with new work down 2.6% and repairs and maintenance falling 1.5%, continuing a broader slowdown in the sector.

The UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the three months to November 2025, following flat growth in the three months to October and outperforming market expectations of a 0.2% contraction. Growth was driven by the services sector, which rose 0.2%, with the strongest contributions coming from real estate activities (+0.4%), administrative and support services (+0.8%), and wholesale and retail trade, including motor vehicle repairs (+0.4%). By contrast, production output declined by 0.1%, largely reflecting a drop in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers following August’s cyber incident. Construction output fell by 1.1%, marking the sharpest three-month decline since March 2023, as both new work and repair and maintenance decreased by 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively.

The UK economy grew just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in in the three months to September 2025, down from 0.2% in the three months to August and below the 0.2% forecast. By sector, services output rose 0.2% (vs. 0.3% in August), construction edged up 0.1% (vs. 0.4%), while production fell 0.5%, following a 0.1% decline in the previous period. In September alone, GDP contracted 0.1% month-on-month against expectations of 0.1% growth.