UK Gilt Yields Trim Losses After BoE Rate Hike

The UK 10-year gilt yield pared its earlier decline to trade just below 5.15% after the Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking its first increase in more than three years. Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that further rate increases may be necessary unless the Iran war is resolved, which would help ease the inflationary pressures behind the latest hike. Markets have since strengthened their bets on further monetary tightening, with three additional rate increases now fully priced in by November 2027. The BoE also warned that inflation could peak at 4.9% in Q2 2027, while its adverse scenario points to a sharper increase to 6.2% in Q3. Despite domestic pressure on yields, global bond markets remained supported by falling US Treasury yields following a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, while a sell-off in technology stocks prompted investors to seek safer assets such as government bonds.

The UK 10-year gilt yield fell further to around 5.1%, its lowest level since late August, as Brent crude prices tumbled to two-month lows amid expectations that the Trump administration could face mounting political pressure to bring the war with Iran to an end following a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. Market sentiment was also supported by a rotation away from technology stocks towards other assets, amid concerns over potential regulatory restrictions on chipmakers. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023, as persistent inflationary pressures continue to weigh on the economic outlook. However, policymakers may push back against market expectations of further monetary tightening next year. Against this backdrop, expectations for additional rate increases beyond today's BoE meeting have moderated, with traders no longer fully pricing in four rate hikes by the end of next year.

The UK 10-year gilt yield fell to 5.14% on Wednesday, the lowest in two months, tracking a decline in US Treasury yields following the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. A Democratic takeover of the House is seen as reducing the likelihood of further deficit-expanding legislation under the Trump administration, easing concerns over federal borrowing. Meanwhile, investors are positioning for an expected return to monetary tightening by the Bank of England on Thursday, with markets widely anticipating the first interest rate hike since 2023. Inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran war, alongside resilience in the UK economy, have strengthened the case for higher borrowing costs. However, policymakers are expected to push back against market expectations of several further rate increases next year.