UK Gilt Yield Climbs as Rate-Hike Bets Persist

2026-09-23 14:37 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

UK 10-year gilt yields surged back above 5.3% as oil prices rebounded and investors assessed preliminary September PMI data.

Brent crude rose after five consecutive sessions of losses, with uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks persisting as President Trump threatened further action against Iran while also suggesting that a deal could be reached soon.

Meanwhile, the latest PMI survey showed that UK business activity continued to expand in September, although growth slowed slightly and came in below expectations.

Despite the softer reading, markets are still pricing in a solid chance of a 25-basis-point Bank of England rate hike in November.

In the US, much stronger-than-expected PMI data, pointing to the steepest expansion in business activity in more than five years, combined with a series of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers, reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening.

The outlook comes after the Fed raised rates last week for the first time since 2023.



News Stream
UK Gilt Yield Climbs as Rate-Hike Bets Persist
UK 10-year gilt yields surged back above 5.3% as oil prices rebounded and investors assessed preliminary September PMI data. Brent crude rose after five consecutive sessions of losses, with uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks persisting as President Trump threatened further action against Iran while also suggesting that a deal could be reached soon. Meanwhile, the latest PMI survey showed that UK business activity continued to expand in September, although growth slowed slightly and came in below expectations. Despite the softer reading, markets are still pricing in a solid chance of a 25-basis-point Bank of England rate hike in November. In the US, much stronger-than-expected PMI data, pointing to the steepest expansion in business activity in more than five years, combined with a series of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers, reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening. The outlook comes after the Fed raised rates last week for the first time since 2023.
2026-09-23
UK Gilt Yields Hold Near Recent Lows as Oil Prices Ease
UK 10-year gilt yields stabilized around 5.23%, close to their lowest level since September 8, as a recent decline in oil prices supported the broader market. Brent crude remained below $100 a barrel amid reports that Saudi Arabia was preparing to restart a key pipeline and that the US had made progress in talks with Iran, despite President Trump’s earlier threat against Iran at the UN General Assembly. The move in oil prices, however, did little to ease expectations for Bank of England tightening, with markets still pricing a solid chance of a 25bp rate hike in November. Meanwhile, preliminary September PMI data showed continued UK business expansion, although growth slowed slightly and came in below expectations. Services firms cited weak domestic demand and geopolitical uncertainty as headwinds, while manufacturing activity was boosted by AI investment and higher defense spending. In the US, hawkish comments from Fed policymakers strengthened expectations of further rate hikes.
2026-09-23
UK Gilt Yields Fall as Oil Slides Below $100
UK 10-year gilt yields reversed an early rise to fall to 5.20% on Tuesday, their lowest level since September 8, extending an eight-basis-point decline in the previous session as oil prices resumed their recent slide. Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel following reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifted its blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, UK government data showed the budget deficit widened to £18.3 billion in August, above economists’ expectations of £15.5 billion. The larger shortfall was partly attributed to inflation, which has increased spending on state pensions and social benefits. Attention is now turning to next month’s Autumn Budget, with the government reportedly considering changes to fiscal rules that would allow borrowing for infrastructure and other construction projects to be excluded. A similar proposal was previously floated during Keir Starmer’s time in office.
2026-09-22