UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Tops 5%

The UK 10-year gilt yield rose above 5% as a sharp increase in oil prices revived concerns over inflation and the outlook for monetary policy. Brent crude climbed above $89 per barrel as tensions between the US and Iran intensified and prospects for a Middle East agreement became less certain. President Donald Trump has issued tougher demands on Tehran, while Iran continues to seek reparations as part of negotiations to end the conflict. Higher energy costs are particularly concerning for the UK, a net oil importer that has struggled with persistent inflation, increasing expectations that the Bank of England may need to keep rates higher for longer. Markets are now more than fully pricing in a rate hike by December and another by spring. Meanwhile, UK retail sales rose 1.3% year-on-year in July, below the 12-month average, while Barclays data showed consumer spending increased 2%, its strongest growth this year.

The UK 10-year gilt yield rose to 4.92% on Monday, recovering from a 3-basis-point decline on Friday and remaining above the three-week low of 4.891% reached on August 4. The move came as optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded after Iran denied holding direct talks with Washington on the issue. An agreement between Iran and Oman to restore shipping through the waterway has yet to materialise, while renewed Houthi attacks added to regional tensions. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected US jobs data reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. In the UK, the Bank of England left rates unchanged in July, with Governor Andrew Bailey saying disinflation remained on track. The latest KPMG/REC survey showed signs of improvement in the UK labour market, with permanent hiring stabilising and temporary vacancies rising. However, starting salary growth accelerated to a six-month high, potentially complicating the BoE’s policy outlook.

The UK 10-year gilt yield held near 4.95% on Friday, remaining above Tuesday’s three-week low of 4.891%, as higher oil prices revived concerns that central banks may need to keep interest rates elevated. Brent crude extended its gains for a second session amid supply concerns after Iran published a restrictive draft plan for the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran and Oman are reportedly working on an agreement to establish transit routes through the waterway, no deal has yet been announced, keeping investors cautious. Despite the recent rise in yields, the UK 10-year yield remains around 9 basis points lower this week, supported by hopes that a reopening of the strait could eventually ease oil prices and inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged in July, with Governor Andrew Bailey saying the disinflation process remained on track despite ongoing external risks.