The Bank of England's policy rate stands at 3.75%. Interest rate futures price an implied rate of 4.04% at the 5 November 2026 decision, 29 basis points above the current level. Markets assign a 0% probability to a cut, 0% to no change and 100% to a hike, with 4.00% the single most likely outcome at 84%.
Trading Economics Implied Policy Rates are measures of how financial markets price future central bank policy decisions. Trading Economics derives market-implied forward curves by combining interest rate futures prices, tied to representative short-term benchmark rates, with scheduled decision dates from its economic calendar. The difference between the implied rate following a policy meeting and the prevailing policy rate reflects the expected basis-point move. Based on this expected change, the market-implied probability of rate adjustments are derived for each upcoming central bank meetings.