UK Order Book Balance Holds at Six-Year Low

The UK’s total order book balance remained at -45 in July 2026, matching the joint-lowest level since September 2020 and falling short of market expectations of -40. Rising costs and weak demand are squeezing manufacturers, forcing them to absorb pressure through tighter margins, reduced investment, and further job cuts. According to the CBI’s quarterly data, cost pressures for manufacturers surged in the three months to July, with unit costs rising at the fastest pace since the three months to October 2022. However, output expectations for the next three months improved slightly, edging up to -30 from -31 in June.

The UK’s total order book balance fell to -45 in June 2026 from -41 in May, the lowest since September 2020 and worse than market expectations of -35. Output volumes dropped across most sectors, with food, drink & tobacco, mechanical engineering, paper, printing & media, and metal products among the hardest hit. Export demand also weakened, with export order books falling to -33 and remaining well below long-term averages. Firms continue to describe both domestic and overseas orders as below “normal” levels, reflecting fragile global demand conditions. Despite the downturn, selling price expectations remain elevated at 22, although this is a sharp easing from May’s 38. CBI economist Cameron Martin said manufacturers are facing weak demand and high costs, while uncertainty is limiting investment. He added that stabilisation in energy markets, including progress on US-Iran talks, could eventually ease pressures, but warned that recovery will take time.

The UK’s total order book balance fell to -41 in May 2026 from -38 in April, slightly worse than market expectations of -40, CBI data showed. The reading is the lowest since September 2020 and well below its long-term average of -14. The Middle East conflict is feeding through to higher energy costs and renewed supply chain disruption, adding to challenges for manufacturers against an increasingly uncertain global backdrop. Weak demand persists, with selling price expectations rising to their strongest level since 2023. Output declined in 13 of 17 sub-sectors in the three months to May, led by falls in food, drink & tobacco, mechanical engineering, metal products, and paper, printing & media. Stocks of finished goods were seen as adequate, though the balance remained below historical norms.