Sterling Slips as Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Concerns

2026-10-01 08:45 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

Sterling weakened to around $1.32 at the start of October, near three-month lows, after falling 2% against the US dollar in September as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns, pushed bond yields higher and clouded the UK growth outlook.

Oil prices rose as investors weighed increased Middle East energy flows against the ongoing US-Iran impasse.

Markets expect the Bank of England to tighten policy more slowly than the Federal Reserve, with LSEG data showing investors pricing in four BoE rate hikes by July 2027, including a first move in November.

Several policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, have signaled greater openness to higher rates as energy costs raise the risk of inflation staying above target.

In the US, markets still see a near 40% chance of a rate hike this month.

Elsewhere, investors welcomed Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s comments on closer UK-EU ties, including the possibility of reopening the question of EU membership after the next general election.



News Stream
Sterling Slips as Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Concerns
Sterling weakened to around $1.32 at the start of October, near three-month lows, after falling 2% against the US dollar in September as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns, pushed bond yields higher and clouded the UK growth outlook. Oil prices rose as investors weighed increased Middle East energy flows against the ongoing US-Iran impasse. Markets expect the Bank of England to tighten policy more slowly than the Federal Reserve, with LSEG data showing investors pricing in four BoE rate hikes by July 2027, including a first move in November. Several policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, have signaled greater openness to higher rates as energy costs raise the risk of inflation staying above target. In the US, markets still see a near 40% chance of a rate hike this month. Elsewhere, investors welcomed Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s comments on closer UK-EU ties, including the possibility of reopening the question of EU membership after the next general election.
2026-10-01
Sterling Recovers but Ends September Lower
Sterling edged toward $1.33 at the end of September, recovering from a three-month low of $1.32 earlier in the week, supported by stronger-than-expected GDP data and comments from Prime Minister Andy Burnham on the UK-EU relationship. Burnham opened the door to potentially rejoining the EU after the next general election and pledged to outline options for closer ties later this year. Meanwhile, revised data showed UK GDP grew 0.5% in Q2, above the previous estimate of 0.4%. BoE policymakers sent mixed signals, with Alan Taylor playing down the need for rate hikes to address the energy shock, while Governor Andrew Bailey and other MPC members indicated they could support higher rates if inflationary pressures persist. Still, the pound fell 2% against the dollar over the month, as markets expected the BoE to lag the Fed in tightening.
2026-09-30
British Pound Hits 13-week Low
GBPUSD decreased to 1.32, the lowest since June 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, British Pound US Dollar lost 2.53%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 1.77%.
2026-09-29