UK Retail Sales Slump Deepens in June: CBI

The CBI retail sales balance plummeted to -54 in June 2026 from -46 in May, missing market forecasts of -41. Retailers reported a downcast start to the summer as depressed consumer sentiment and climbing cost pressures caused sales to fall significantly below seasonal norms. The annual sales decline was reflected across the broader distribution sector, with wholesale volumes also contracting by 20%. While online sales remained flat at 0% after a previous 11% gain, internet sales are projected to rebound strongly next month by 37%. However, overall retail, wholesale, and total distribution sales are expected to face ongoing contraction into July. CBI Lead Economist Martin Sartorius emphasized that businesses require clarity and structural reforms, particularly regarding business rates and energy costs, to stimulate economic growth as the government transitions to a new Prime Minister.

The CBI retail sales balance improved to -46 in May 2026 from -68 in April, beating market expectations of -60, with retailers expecting a further moderation to -36 next month. Sales remained below seasonal norms and demand stayed weak, while retail sentiment remained negative for a second straight year despite a slower deterioration than in previous quarters. Retail selling price inflation eased to its slowest pace since February 2025, with the balance falling to 28 from 41. Retailers also signalled further cuts to investment and hiring plans, with capital expenditure expectations falling to their weakest level since February 2025. Employment in the sector continued to decline, although at a slower pace. CBI economist Charlotte Dendy said the slowdown in price growth highlights weak consumer demand and warned that firms continue to face pressure from high operating costs, while calling for business rates reform, lower energy costs and reduced regulatory burdens to support the sector.

The CBI's monthly retail sales volume measure tumbled to –68 in April 2026, a 16-point drop and the lowest reading since the series began in 1983. The figure, far worse than the expected –48, marks the steepest year-over-year decline in retail activity in over four decades, as the escalating Iran war intensifies household inflation concerns. The downturn extended beyond physical stores, with online retail sales volumes crashing at the fastest pace since January 2024 (–51 from –11), while wholesale sales volumes also contracted sharply (–32 from –31). Outlook for May has also deteriorated sharply, with expectations falling to –60 from –49, the most pessimistic forecast since March 2021 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.