UK Retail Sales Plunge to Historic Low: CBI

The CBI’s headline sales balance fell to -48 in August 2026 from -26 in July, well below market expectations of -24. Retailers reported significantly lower sales volumes, while the broader distribution sector also faced subdued trading conditions. The deterioration weighed on hiring and investment plans, although retailers expect some improvement in September, with sales expectations rising to -22, the strongest outlook since March. Sales for the time of year also declined, reaching -26 from -18 in July. The CBI’s quarterly business situation balance weakened to -29 from -15 in May, highlighting continued pressure on the sector. However, investment intentions improved considerably to -16 from -52 in May, their strongest level since February 2024. Employment trends also showed some resilience, with retailers cutting jobs at the slowest pace since November 2025.

The CBI retail sales balance improved to -26 in July 2026 from -54 in June, well above market expectations of -45, signaling the smallest decline in UK retail sales in six months. Although sales remained lower than a year earlier, retailers said the pace of the downturn had eased, while sales for the time of year were judged to be below seasonal norms by the smallest margin since February. The CBI said the sector continues to face headwinds from weak consumer confidence and elevated cost pressures, leaving the outlook subdued. Looking ahead, retailers' expectations for August improved to -26 from -45, the strongest reading since March. The CBI urged Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government to support high-street retailers through lower property taxes, address rising labour costs, and preserve hiring flexibility as employment reforms are finalized. Meanwhile, wholesalers reported broadly unchanged sales volumes for the first time in more than two years.

The CBI retail sales balance plummeted to -54 in June 2026 from -46 in May, missing market forecasts of -41. Retailers reported a downcast start to the summer as depressed consumer sentiment and climbing cost pressures caused sales to fall significantly below seasonal norms. The annual sales decline was reflected across the broader distribution sector, with wholesale volumes also contracting by 20%. While online sales remained flat at 0% after a previous 11% gain, internet sales are projected to rebound strongly next month by 37%. However, overall retail, wholesale, and total distribution sales are expected to face ongoing contraction into July. CBI Lead Economist Martin Sartorius emphasized that businesses require clarity and structural reforms, particularly regarding business rates and energy costs, to stimulate economic growth as the government transitions to a new Prime Minister.