UK Retail Sales Plunge to Historic Low: CBI

The CBI's monthly retail sales volume measure tumbled to –68 in April 2026, a 16-point drop and the lowest reading since the series began in 1983. The figure, far worse than the expected –48, marks the steepest year-over-year decline in retail activity in over four decades, as the escalating Iran war intensifies household inflation concerns. The downturn extended beyond physical stores, with online retail sales volumes crashing at the fastest pace since January 2024 (–51 from –11), while wholesale sales volumes also contracted sharply (–32 from –31). Outlook for May has also deteriorated sharply, with expectations falling to –60 from –49, the most pessimistic forecast since March 2021 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The CBI retail sales balance fell to -43 in February 2026 from -17 in January and well below market expectations of -16. Retail sales volumes have been weakening since mid-2023, and February saw a sharp decline, though the pace of contraction is expected to slow next month. Retailers reported sales for the season as “poor” and anticipate continued underperformance, reflecting persistently weak demand. Sentiment remains near a 17-year low, prompting firms to scale back investment and reduce headcount, with employment falling at the fastest rate since May 2023. Despite this, retail selling prices grew in line with long-term averages, while online retail sales surged at the fastest rate since April 2021. Orders to suppliers and stock levels eased, suggesting cautious inventory management. Overall, the sector faces ongoing pressure from soft demand and rising costs, even as online channels partially offset declines.

The CBI retail sales balance improved to -17 in January 2026 from -44 in December, the strongest reading since April 2025 and well above expectations of -35. The latest survey suggests the severe slowdown seen across UK retailers has moderated, although conditions remain challenging overall. Retailers’ outlook for the month ahead also became less negative, with the expectations balance rising to -30 from -57. Despite the improvement, the CBI cautioned that the rebound is unlikely to last, with sales projected to weaken again next month. The group said low consumer confidence and cautious spending habits continue to restrain demand.