Eurozone Inflation Expectations Fall to 6-Month Low

Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased to 2.6% in January 2026, the lowest in six months, from 2.8% in December. Expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.6%, while inflation expectations for five years ahead decreased to 2.3%, from 2.4%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in January. Respondents in lower income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than those in higher income quintiles, a trend observed since 2023. However, the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).

Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months were unchanged at 2.8% in December 2025. By contrast, expectations over longer horizons edged higher: three-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.6% from 2.5%, while five-year-ahead expectations increased to 2.4% from 2.2%. Uncertainty around inflation expectations for the next 12 months also remained unchanged in December. Respondents in the lowest income quintiles continued to report slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-term expectations than those in higher income groups, consistent with a trend observed since 2023. Despite this gap, inflation perceptions and expectations evolved in broadly similar ways across income categories. Younger respondents (18–34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older groups (35–54 and 55–70).

Median consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone over the next year held at 2.8% in November 2025, while expectations three and five years ahead remained anchored at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. Uncertainty around near-term inflation also showed little change. Lower-income households continued to report slightly higher perceived inflation and short-term expectations than higher-income groups, a pattern seen since 2023, though trends across income levels remain broadly aligned. Younger consumers reported lower inflation expectations than older age groups. Beyond prices, households became more cautious about the outlook: expectations for spending growth declined and views on economic growth turned more negative. At the same time, expectations for unemployment eased slightly, while forecasts for house price growth and mortgage rates over the next year fell.