China Export Growth Below Expectations

China’s exports surged 14.1% year-on-year to a record high of USD 359.44 billion in April 2026, far exceeding forecasts of 7.9% and accelerating sharply from March’s 2.5% rise, which was the weakest growth since October 2025. The acceleration in growth came as companies rushed to stockpile components from the manufacturing powerhouse amid fears that the Iran war could push input costs even higher. Shipments to the US soared 11.3% year-on-year to USD 36.8 billion, returning to growth after a 26.5% plunge in March despite tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Shipments to the United States had also fallen 11% in January and February combined. Significant increases in shipments were also seen to Southeast Asia and Europe, the country’s major export destinations, while shipments to Japan rose 4%. For the first four months of the year, total exports still grew 14.5% year-on-year to USD 1.34 trillion. However, during the period, sales to the US dropped 10.2%.

China’s exports rose 2.5% year-on-year to USD 321.03 billion in March 2026, significantly missing forecasts of 8.3% and marking a sharp slowdown from February’s 39.6% surge. This marks the weakest growth since October 2025, driven by seasonal factors and a high base effect from March 2025’s tariff-driven export rush, rather than softening global demand. The later Lunar New Year in 2026 likely shortened March’s production window, while the exceptionally strong export growth in March 2025, driven by companies rushing to avoid US tariffs under President Donald Trump, created a challenging year-on-year comparison. Export growth slowed across most major regions, except for Taiwan and Hong Kong. Shipments to the US plunged 26.5%, resuming a downward trend after February’s brief pause in double-digit declines. For Q1 2026, total exports still grew 14.7% year-on-year to USD 977.61 billion.

China’s exports jumped 21.8% year-on-year to USD 656.58 billion in January–February 2026, accelerating sharply from a 6.6% rise in December and easily surpassing market forecasts of 7.1%. The surge marked the fastest growth in outbound shipments since October 2021, supported by firm global demand and a strong start to the year. Sales increased to Japan (8.9%), Hong Kong (38.7%), South Korea (27.0%), Taiwan (28.7%), Australia (29.4%), the ASEAN countries (29.4%), and the EU (27.8%), but shrank to the U.S. (-11.0%). Sales of refined oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel, and marine fuel, rose 12.7% to 8.13 million tons. President Trump’s renewed 2025 tariffs barely slowed China’s industrial momentum, as manufacturers redirected exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, analysts noted that China’s resilient exports and lower 2026 GDP growth target could delay the rollout of economic stimulus.