China Export Growth Below Expectations

China’s exports grew 2.5% year-on-year to USD 321.03 billion in March 2026, slowing sharply from a 21.8% surge in the January–February period and coming in below market forecasts of 8.3%. It marked the softest export growth since October, when outbound shipments declined 1.3%. The slowdown came as AI-driven demand was offset by global uncertainty following the energy shock triggered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Sales increased to Japan (3.3%), South Korea (19.6%), Taiwan (35.2%), Australia (11.9%), ASEAN countries (6.9%), and the EU (8.6%), but declined to the U.S. (-26.5%), partly due to tariffs imposed by President Trump. For the first quarter of the year, total exports rose 14.7% year-on-year to USD 977.49 billion. During the period, sales of refined oil products increased 2.6% to 12.74 million tons. Meanwhile, exports of the group of 17 minerals rose 2.8% year-on-year to 14,579 tons, despite plunging 27.5% year-on-year in March alone.

China’s exports jumped 21.8% year-on-year to USD 656.58 billion in January–February 2026, accelerating sharply from a 6.6% rise in December and easily surpassing market forecasts of 7.1%. The surge marked the fastest growth in outbound shipments since October 2021, supported by firm global demand and a strong start to the year. Sales increased to Japan (8.9%), Hong Kong (38.7%), South Korea (27.0%), Taiwan (28.7%), Australia (29.4%), the ASEAN countries (29.4%), and the EU (27.8%), but shrank to the U.S. (-11.0%). Sales of refined oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel, and marine fuel, rose 12.7% to 8.13 million tons. President Trump’s renewed 2025 tariffs barely slowed China’s industrial momentum, as manufacturers redirected exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, analysts noted that China’s resilient exports and lower 2026 GDP growth target could delay the rollout of economic stimulus.

China’s exports rose by 6.6% yoy to a record peak of USD 357.8 billion in December 2025, surpassing expectations of 3.0% growth and accelerating from a 5.9% gain in November. It marked the strongest growth since September, driven by a surge in exports to non-US markets, as governments have sought to diversify export destinations since Trump’s victory in the November 2024 presidential election and to deepen trade ties with ASEAN and the EU. Among major trading partners, exports grew to ASEAN (11.1%), China's largest trading partner in bloc terms, the EU (11.6%), Latin America (9.8%), Africa (21.8%), Japan (5.3%), Taiwan (11.2%), and Australia (12.9%). However, exports to the US plunged 30% in December after slumping 28.6% in November, and fell 20% for the full year 2025 due to the impact of newly imposed US tariffs, even though the US and China agreed to scale back some of their duties. For the whole of 2025, China’s exports rose 5.5% from a year earlier to USD 3.77 trillion