Canada Retail Sales Seen Rebounding in January

Retail sales in Canada are estimated to have increased by 0.9% from the previous month in February of 2026, according to a preliminary estimate. If confirmed, that would extend the 1.1% increase in January to C$69.7 billion, which was revised lower from the 1.5% estimate, rebounding from the 0.5% drop in the last month of 2025. Such an increase would be the largest back-to-back increase since December of 2024. Retail turnover in January was higher for general merchandise retailers (3% to C$9.4 billion), sports, hobby, musical instrument and book stores (2.6% to C$3.9 billion), health and personal care retailers (1.2% to C$5.9 billion), and building material and garden equipment suppliers (1.3% to C$3.9 billion). Motor vehicles and parts turnover, which are usually volatile, jumped by 2% to C$19.3 billion. In turn, gasoline station turnover dropped by 0.4% to C$6.7 billion). From the previous year, retail turnover rose by 1.5% in February.

Canada’s retail sales are estimated to have increased 1.5% month over month in January 2026, which, if confirmed, would mark a rebound after a 0.4% decline in December and sharpest increase since December 2024 according to advance estimates. In December retail sales fell 0.4% to C$70.0 billion with sales down in three of nine subsectors led by motor vehicle and parts dealers which dropped 1.6%. Core retail sales excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle dealers fell 0.3%. Gains in December were concentrated at gasoline stations and fuel vendors up 2.8% and at sporting goods hobby musical instrument book and miscellaneous retailers up 1.0% while building material and garden equipment and furniture home electronics retailers posted the largest declines. Retail sales fell in seven provinces with Alberta the largest decline at 2.1% while Quebec rose 0.6%. Year on year retail sales were essentially unchanged in December.

Retail sales in Canada are estimated to have fallen 0.5% month over month in December 2025, which, if confirmed, would mark the sharpest monthly decline in three months, according to advance estimates. In November however, retail sales rose 1.3%, rebounding strongly after declines in the prior two months, with gains recorded in eight of nine subsectors. Sales were led by food and beverage retailers (+3.0%), notably beer, wine and liquor retailers (+14.3%) as labour disruptions in British Columbia that had weighed on sales in October eased. Sales also increased at clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewellery, luggage and leather goods retailers (+2.4%) and health and personal care retailers (+1.6%). Sales also rose at gasoline stations and fuel vendors (+2.0%). On the other hand, sales edged down at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book and miscellaneous retailers (-0.2%). Year on year, retail sales rose 3.1% in November.