Canada Retail Sales Seen Rebounding in November

Retail sales in Canada likely increased 1.3% month-over-month in August 2026, rebounding from a 0.7% fall in July, according to preliminary estimates. It would mark the strongest gain in retail sales since January. Meanwhile in July, sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers were down 0.8%, posting their first decline in four months, led by lower sales at new car dealers (-1.3%). Also, sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors declined 0.9%, sales at general merchandise dropped 1.9% and lower sales were also recorded at clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage and leather goods retailers (-1.2%). In contrast, sales went up for building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+0.8%) and used car dealers (+2.9%). Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers, were also down 0.7% in July. Year-on-year, retail sales increased 5.1%.

Retail sales in Canada are expected to have fallen by 0.8% from the previous month in July, according to flash estimate. Such a decrease would be the sharpest in ten months, erasing the 0.6% jump from June, which was in turn revised higher from the flash estimate of 0.4%. Sales turnover surged for general merchandise retailers (2.7%) and stores selling clothing, accessories, shoes, jewelry, and luggage (3.1%). Meanwhile, sales for motor vehicle and parts dealers, which are commonly volatile and have a large impact from credit conditions, rose by 1%. Conversely, turnover at gasoline stations sunk 4.1%, the first decline in four months, despite a 4.2% increase in volumes as the momentary respite in the war in the Middle East had lowered fuel prices in global wholesale markets. From the previous year, Canadian retail turnover expanded by 5.2%.

Retail sales in Canada increased by 0.4% from the previous month in June 2026, according to a preliminary estimate. If confirmed, it would mark a sixth straight increase in retail sales. In May, retail turnover rose by 1% to C$73.7 billion, in line with earlier estimates. Sales were up in all nine subsectors, led by increases at gasoline stations and fuel vendor (+3.1%). Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 0.7% in May, rising for a second consecutive month. All four store types within this subsector posted increases in May, with higher sales at new car dealers (+0.5%) leading the gain. Following a decrease of 0.7% in April, core retail sales rose 0.9% in May. The increase was led by higher sales at general merchandise retailers (+1.0%), which posted its first increase in three months. Retail sales increased in nine provinces in May, in particular British Columbia (+2.1%).