UK House Price Balance Below Forecasts

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed the house price balance fell to -12% in February 2026 from -10% in January, marking the first decline in four months and missing market expectations for an improvement to -9%. Respondents in London (-40%), the South East (-24%), and East Anglia (-26%) reported greater downward pressure compared with the national average. In contrast, Northern Ireland and Scotland continue to see rising prices, while the North West of England is also experiencing gains. Looking ahead, near-term headline price expectations returned to negative territory, with the aggregate net balance dropping to -18% from -6%. Over the next twelve months, a net balance of +33% of contributors expect house prices to edge higher, though this is down from +43% last month. The shift in sentiment is particularly notable in London, where the twelve-month expectations net balance has flattened sharply to +7% from +56% previously.

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed the house price balance rose to -10% in January 2026 from a revised -13% in December, marking a third straight monthly improvement and the strongest reading since June. The outturn also came in above market expectations of -11%, adding to signs of a tentative recovery in the housing market. Regional disparities remain pronounced as Northern Ireland and Scotland continued to report price gains, while respondents in the North West and the North of England indicated that prices are trending higher. In contrast, net balances in London, the South West, the South East and East Anglia remained more negative than the national average, though each region saw a moderation in the pace of decline. Commenting on the data, RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn said: “There are early signs that market conditions may be improving after a challenging period, although activity levels are still subdued, meaning any recovery is likely to be gradual.”

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed the house price balance held at -14% in December 2025, unchanged from November but slightly improved from the recent low of 19% in October. While this still points to a modest national decline in prices, the trend appears to be stabilizing. London and the South East continue to underperform, with net balances of -42% and -32% respectively, indicating steeper price falls than the national average. By contrast, prices in Scotland and Northern Ireland are still rising. The forward looking picture has improved, with the three month outlook now broadly flat as the headline net balance rose to -6% from -14% previously. Looking further ahead, a net balance of +35% of respondents now expects prices to return to growth over the next year, up from +16% in October and +24% in November.