UK House Price Balance Misses Forecast

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed the house price balance held at -14% in December 2025, unchanged from November but slightly improved from the recent low of 19% in October. While this still points to a modest national decline in prices, the trend appears to be stabilizing. London and the South East continue to underperform, with net balances of -42% and -32% respectively, indicating steeper price falls than the national average. By contrast, prices in Scotland and Northern Ireland are still rising. The forward looking picture has improved, with the three month outlook now broadly flat as the headline net balance rose to -6% from -14% previously. Looking further ahead, a net balance of +35% of respondents now expects prices to return to growth over the next year, up from +16% in October and +24% in November.

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed the house price balance improving to -16% in November 2025 from -19% in October, defying expectations for a further decline to -21% and suggesting that the downward trend may be stabilizing. Regional divergences remained pronounced as London’s net balance fell to -44%, now the weakest of any UK region, with the recently announced tax on higher-value homes likely adding pressure to the capital’s market. In contrast, respondents in Northern Ireland and Scotland continued to report rising prices. Near-term price expectations were broadly steady, with a national net balance of -15% versus -12% previously. Twelve-month expectations edged higher, with a net balance of +24% of contributors anticipating price gains over the coming year, the strongest reading since June. This positive outlook was evident across most regions, except East Anglia, where sentiment remained comparatively subdued.

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed the house price balance slipped to -19% in October 2025 from a downwardly revised -17% in September, missing forecasts for an improvement to -14%. The figure continues to signal mild downward pressure on overall house prices. Regionally, the decline was most evident in the South East, London, and East Anglia, where price net balances remained weaker than the national average. Looking ahead, prices are expected to soften slightly over the next three months, with a forward-looking net balance of -12%. Still, the latest reading is less pessimistic than the -21% seen previously, suggesting only a modest near-term dip. Over a twelve-month horizon, however, sentiment is more upbeat, with a net 16% of respondents anticipating a return to price growth nationwide.