UK House Price Growth at 11-Month High

UK house prices rose 3.0% year-on-year in April, marking the fastest pace since May 2025, Nationwide data showed. The latest result topped market expectations and March’s 2.2% gain, with Chief Economist Robert Gardner noting the housing market has regained momentum despite Middle East tensions and higher energy costs. “This is somewhat surprising given that indicators of consumer confidence have weakened noticeably,” he said, adding that higher interest rates and a more uncertain backdrop remain headwinds. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.4%, easing from a 0.9% gain in March.

The UK Nationwide House Price Index rose 2.2% year-on-year in March 2026, picking up from 1.0% growth in February and marking the fastest increase since last October. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.9%, above forecasts of a 0.6% gain and accelerating from a 0.3% increase in the previous period. Chief Economist Robert Gardner said the rebound signals improving conditions, but rising global energy prices linked to Middle East tensions pose downside risks. He warned UK growth may slow while inflation could exceed expectations, with markets now pricing in three rate hikes over the next year versus earlier expectations for cuts, pushing up mortgage costs and weighing on affordability and demand. Still, fundamentals remain supportive, with a resilient labor market, low household debt, strong savings, and around 90% of mortgages on fixed rates. Regionally, growth was uneven in Q1, led by Northern Ireland (+9.5%), followed by North West England (+3.3%), while England lagged (+0.9%).

The UK Nationwide House Price Index rose 1% year-on-year in February 2026, exceeding expectations of a 0.7% increase and matching January’s pace. On a monthly basis, prices went up 0.3%, in line with forecasts and the same pace as in January. Nationwide Chief Economist Robert Gardner noted this reflects a modest recovery following a dip at the end of 2025, likely linked to uncertainty over potential property tax changes ahead of the Budget. Mortgage approvals for house purchases remained close to pre-pandemic levels. Over 2025, total housing market transactions were 10% higher than in 2024, supported by improved affordability and easing credit availability. First-time buyer activity increased 18% year-on-year, home mover purchases up 15%, while buy-to-let activity edged higher but stayed subdued due to rates and regulatory headwinds. Gardner expects activity to continue recovering in coming quarters if affordability trends persist.