UK Inflation Expectations Fall to 5-Month Low in July

UK households' one-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 3.4% in July 2026 from 3.8% in June, marking the lowest reading since February and extending the retreat from the March high of 5.4% following the initial US strikes on Iran.

Longer-term expectations also moderated, easing to 3.7% from 3.9%.

Inflation expectations have now largely retraced the Iran war-related spike, despite the recent resurgence in global oil and gas prices.