UK Gilt Yields Hold Above 4.9% on BoE Hike Bets

UK 10-year gilt yields stayed above 4.9%, near their highest since June 10, as traders increased bets on Bank of England rate hikes amid rising US-Iran tensions. Investors also considered US President Donald Trump’s latest remarks, stating that Iran still wants to make a deal "badly." Crude prices hit two-week highs on Wednesday after fresh US strikes in Iran, with Trump declaring the Iran ceasefire over, casting doubt on the peace deal’s stability and boosting inflation concerns. Investors now fully expect a 25-basis-point BoE rate hike by year-end, most likely in December. Politically, Andy Burnham, the frontrunner to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister, has yet to appoint a finance minister, with former energy minister Ed Miliband seen as the likely pick. Sterling’s resilience amid recent political turmoil suggests much of the negative news has already been factored in.

UK 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 4.95%, the highest since June 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield gained 3.27 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 33.97 basis points.

UK 10-year gilt yields crossed the 4.9% mark, touching their highest level since June 10, as traders ramped up bets on Bank of England rate hikes following a surge in crude oil prices. Brent crude reached a two-week high after the US conducted a new round of strikes in Iran, sparking concerns over the stability of the peace deal and amplifying inflationary pressures. US President Trump further escalated tensions by stating at the start of NATO’s second day of summit talks in Ankara that, as far as he is concerned, the Iran ceasefire is over. On the political front, Andy Burnham, the leading candidate to succeed Keir Starmer as prime minister, has yet to appoint a finance minister, with former energy minister Ed Miliband emerging as the likely pick. Economically, a joint survey by the Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG indicated that hiring activity only saw a slight decline in June, as geopolitical uncertainty began to ease.