UK Gilt Yields Hit 18-Year High as Iran Crisis Sparks BoE Hike Bets

2026-03-27 09:23 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

The UK’s 10-year gilt yield surged back above 5%, its highest since July 2008, and is poised to end March up over 75 basis points, as the Iran conflict drives energy prices higher and prompts a sharp shift in Bank of England expectations from two anticipated cuts to two or three hikes in 2026.

Geopolitical tensions escalated after President Trump extended his ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran fueled skepticism about a quick diplomatic breakthrough, with markets viewing the delay as a tactic to bolster military readiness.

On the domestic front, UK retail sales dipped 0.4% in February (both including and excluding fuel), slightly better than feared, but consumer confidence plunged to a near one-year low in March, as concerns over the conflict’s impact on inflation and growth weighed on sentiment.



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UK Gilt Yields Hit 18-Year High as Iran Crisis Sparks BoE Hike Bets
The UK’s 10-year gilt yield surged back above 5%, its highest since July 2008, and is poised to end March up over 75 basis points, as the Iran conflict drives energy prices higher and prompts a sharp shift in Bank of England expectations from two anticipated cuts to two or three hikes in 2026. Geopolitical tensions escalated after President Trump extended his ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran fueled skepticism about a quick diplomatic breakthrough, with markets viewing the delay as a tactic to bolster military readiness. On the domestic front, UK retail sales dipped 0.4% in February (both including and excluding fuel), slightly better than feared, but consumer confidence plunged to a near one-year low in March, as concerns over the conflict’s impact on inflation and growth weighed on sentiment.
2026-03-27
UK Gilt Yields Near 18-Year High on Inflation Fears
The UK’s 10-year gilt yield hit 4.9%, nearing an 18-year high, as conflicting signals from the US and Iran deepened market uncertainty. President Trump claimed Iran seeks a deal "but is afraid to admit it," while Iranian state media dismissed talks, pushing instead for its own guarantees, including potential fees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged, with Brent nearing $105/barrel and on track for its largest monthly gain since 1990. On the data front, British Retail Consortium’s consumer confidence plummeted in March, as the conflict raised fears of prolonged inflation. Markets now price in two to three Bank of England rate hikes, with a 70% chance of a move next month and a second fully expected by July.
2026-03-26
UK Gilt Yields Drop Amid Middle East De-escalation Hopes
The UK’s 10-year gilt yield fell to 4.8%, retreating from Monday’s near 18-year peak, as optimism grew over potential de-escalation in the Middle East. Reports suggest Washington presented Tehran with a 15-point peace proposal after a possible one-month ceasefire, though Iran rejected any involvement, declaring, "No one can trust US diplomacy." Meanwhile, UK inflation data for February revealed stable consumer prices at 3%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose slightly to 3.2%, exceeding the forecasted 3.1%. The pre-conflict figures, however, failed to sway markets. With oil prices easing, investors now expect only two interest rate increases by year-end, down from three projected earlier in the week. The shift reflects reduced fears that high energy costs will drive inflation.
2026-03-25