UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Falls from 4-Month High

2026-03-10 08:58 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

The UK 10-year gilt yield dropped 10 bps to 4.49% from a near four-month high of 4.59% in the previous session, as investors grew more optimistic that the conflict would have a smaller impact on inflation than initially feared, reducing expectations for further interest-rate hikes.

Markets found some relief as oil prices cooled after comments from US President Donald Trump aimed at calming investors.

Trump said the conflict could end quickly and added that the US Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil and European natural gas prices fell, easing pressure on energy markets and inflation fears.

As a result, market expectations for Bank of England policy have shifted again, with traders leaning back toward the possibility of rate cuts.

Markets are now pricing in about a 50% chance of a rate cut by September, a sharp reversal from the previous session when little change in policy was expected and a rate hike had briefly been priced in earlier in the day.



News Stream
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Falls from 4-Month High
The UK 10-year gilt yield dropped 10 bps to 4.49% from a near four-month high of 4.59% in the previous session, as investors grew more optimistic that the conflict would have a smaller impact on inflation than initially feared, reducing expectations for further interest-rate hikes. Markets found some relief as oil prices cooled after comments from US President Donald Trump aimed at calming investors. Trump said the conflict could end quickly and added that the US Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil and European natural gas prices fell, easing pressure on energy markets and inflation fears. As a result, market expectations for Bank of England policy have shifted again, with traders leaning back toward the possibility of rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in about a 50% chance of a rate cut by September, a sharp reversal from the previous session when little change in policy was expected and a rate hike had briefly been priced in earlier in the day.
2026-03-10
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Soars to 5-Month High
The UK 10-year gilt yield jumped 16 basis points to about 4.722%, the highest level in five months, as investors sharply revised expectations for Bank of England interest rates following the surge in global energy prices. Oil has climbed above $100 per barrel as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupted supply and halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Because the UK is highly sensitive to energy costs feeding into inflation, markets quickly shifted their rate outlook. Only a week ago, investors expected around two rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, but those expectations have been reversed. Traders briefly priced in as much as 16 basis points of rate increases by year-end, instead of the 8 basis points of cuts expected previously. Markets now see a meaningful chance of a rate hike later this year and roughly a 20% probability of a hike as early as June.
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UK 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 4.62%, the highest since November 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield gained 6.13 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 0.71 basis points.
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