UK GDP Growth Disappoints in Q3

The UK economy expanded by just 0.1% in Q3 2025, confirming preliminary estimates and slowing from 0.3% growth in the previous quarter. The production sector fell 0.3%, led by manufacturing (-0.8%) and mining and quarrying (-0.4%). Within manufacturing, transport equipment declined 4.7%, with motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers tumbling 10.3% after a cyberattack severely disrupted operations at Jaguar Land Rover in September. Meanwhile, services rose 0.2%, supported by financial, insurance, and real estate activities, while professional and technical services declined. Construction output grew 0.2%, driven by repair and maintenance, though new work fell. On the expenditure side, household consumption increased 0.3%, government spending rose 0.4%, and business investment rebounded 1.5%. On an annual basis, GDP expanded 1.3%, slightly down from 1.4% in Q2, in line with initial estimates.

The UK economy expanded by just 0.1% in Q3 2025, easing from 0.3% growth in Q2 and falling short of market expectations of 0.2%, according to preliminary estimates. The production sector contracted 0.5%, following a 0.8% decline in the previous period, led by manufacturing (-0.8%) and mining and quarrying (-1.5%). Within manufacturing, motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers tumbled 10.3% after a cyberattack severely disrupted operations at Jaguar Land Rover in September. Services output rose 0.2% (vs. 0.4% in Q2), supported by arts, entertainment, recreation, and real estate, while professional, scientific, and technical activities declined. Construction output increased 0.1% (vs. 1.0%), driven by repair and maintenance, though new work fell. In expenditure terms, gains in investment, spending, and net trade were partly offset by falling valuables and inventories. On an annual basis, GDP increased 1.3% in Q3, slightly below forecasts of 1.4%.

The British economy expanded 0.3% on quarter in Q2 2025, in line with the preliminary estimate and following a 0.7% growth in Q1. Growth was driven by services (0.4% vs 0.7% in Q1), mostly computer programming, consultancy and related activities (4.5%) and construction (1%) while the production sector fell by a faster-than-expected 0.8% (vs 0.6% in Q1), mostly electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (-7.2%). On the expenditure side, household spending edged up 0.1% (vs 0.3%), driven by miscellaneous goods and services, transport, and restaurants and hotels. Government spending went up 1.3% (vs -0.2%) and gross fixed capital formation rose 0.5%, revised up from a first estimate fall of 1.1% and following a 1.9% gain in Q1. However, business investment shrank 1.1%, revised up from a fall of 4%, and compared to a 4% rise in Q1. Also, exports decreased (-0.2% vs 1.7%) and imports stalled (vs 1.2%). Year-on-year, the GDP expanded 1.4%, higher than 1.2% in the first estimate.