UK Order Books Plunge in April

The UK’s total order book balance fell to -41 in May 2026 from -38 in April, slightly worse than market expectations of -40, CBI data showed. The reading is the lowest since September 2020 and well below its long-term average of -14. The Middle East conflict is feeding through to higher energy costs and renewed supply chain disruption, adding to challenges for manufacturers against an increasingly uncertain global backdrop. Weak demand persists, with selling price expectations rising to their strongest level since 2023. Output declined in 13 of 17 sub-sectors in the three months to May, led by falls in food, drink & tobacco, mechanical engineering, metal products, and paper, printing & media. Stocks of finished goods were seen as adequate, though the balance remained below historical norms.

The UK’s total order book balance crashed to -38 in April 2026 from -27 in March, missing expectations of -30 and hitting its lowest level since October 2025, according to the CBI. The reading now sits far below its long-term average of -14. Meanwhile, expected price pressures soared to +32 from +12 in March, marking the sharpest monthly jump since records began in 1975, driven by the Iran war’s economic ripple effects. Business optimism collapsed, with the quarterly outlook measure plunging to -65 (from -19 in January). Investment plans for buildings, machinery, and training also weakened to their lowest since April 2020.

The UK’s total order book balance improved slightly to -27 in March 2026, up from -28 in February and exceeding market expectations of -29, according to the CBI. While the decline in industrial orders is the slowest since September, levels remain weak. The output expectations sub-index for the next three months rose to -3 from -12, while expected price growth eased to +12 from +26. Cameron Martin, CBI senior economist, warned that the Middle East conflict is driving up energy costs and threatening further supply chain disruptions, adding to existing cost pressures on manufacturers.