UK Order Books Plunge in April

The UK’s total order book balance crashed to -38 in April 2026 from -27 in March, missing expectations of -30 and hitting its lowest level since October 2025, according to the CBI. The reading now sits far below its long-term average of -14. Meanwhile, expected price pressures soared to +32 from +12 in March, marking the sharpest monthly jump since records began in 1975, driven by the Iran war’s economic ripple effects. Business optimism collapsed, with the quarterly outlook measure plunging to -65 (from -19 in January). Investment plans for buildings, machinery, and training also weakened to their lowest since April 2020.

The UK’s total order book balance improved slightly to -27 in March 2026, up from -28 in February and exceeding market expectations of -29, according to the CBI. While the decline in industrial orders is the slowest since September, levels remain weak. The output expectations sub-index for the next three months rose to -3 from -12, while expected price growth eased to +12 from +26. Cameron Martin, CBI senior economist, warned that the Middle East conflict is driving up energy costs and threatening further supply chain disruptions, adding to existing cost pressures on manufacturers.

The UK’s total order book balance rose to -28 in February 2026 from -30 in January, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Although the reading signals that industrial orders are declining at their slowest pace since September, levels remain historically subdued. Export order books were also reported as below “normal,” though slightly improved at -26 compared with -30 in January. In the three months to February, manufacturing output continued to fall but at a slower pace than in the three months to January (-14 vs -25). Expectations for average selling price inflation remained elevated at +26% in February, easing slightly from +29% in January but still well above the long-run average of +8%. CBI Senior Economist Cameron Martin said the downturn in manufacturing output had moderated in February following a difficult start to the year, though many firms continue to report customers holding back amid weak confidence and persistent cost pressures.