UK Order Books Remain Weak Ahead of Budget

The UK’s total order book balance improved to -30 in January 2026, up from -32 in December and surpassing analysts’ forecasts of -33, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). While the reading indicates that industrial orders are falling at their slowest pace since September, they remain well below the long-run average. Meanwhile, the gauge of expected prices surged to +29, the highest level since February 2023. Ben Jones, Senior Lead Economist at the CBI, commented: “Manufacturers are facing extremely tough conditions, with output and orders continuing to decline. Many firms report that customers are delaying decisions, ordering only essentials, or holding back altogether, leaving order books thin and confidence fragile. At the same time, rising costs—from wages, energy, and taxes—are squeezing margins and weighing on competitiveness, prompting firms to plan price increases even as demand remains subdued.”

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey showed the UK’s total order book balance improved to a three-month high of -32 in December 2025 from -37 in November and better than analysts' estimates of -35. Still, the index remained well below the long-run average of -14. The survey revealed that export orders fell the least since July and output expectations for the next three months rose to their highest since September. "Activity was clearly held back by uncertainty ahead of the Budget, and with that now out of the way, firms can look to 2026 with a little more certainty," CBI economist Ben Jones said. "Significant headwinds remain nonetheless, with demand still soft, high energy, labour and regulatory costs squeezing margins, and uncertainty around key policies and global conditions continuing to weigh on confidence," he added.

The latest Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey showed the UK’s total order book balance edged up slightly to -37 in November 2025 from -38 in October, but remained well below market expectations of -30 and the long-run average of -14. The reading indicated that total order books were largely stable at a historically weak level, as customers delayed purchases and investment ahead of the November 26 annual budget. Export order books also remained below “normal,” though less severely than in October. Meanwhile, output volumes fell at an accelerated pace in the three months to November, the sharpest decline since August 2020, and are expected to continue falling at a similar rate in the three months to February. Finally, expectations for average selling price inflation eased in November to stand in line with the long-run average.