Sterling Slips Amid Iran Tensions, BoE Hike Bets

2026-03-27 09:29 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

The British pound edged toward $1.33 as traders assessed the latest in US-Iran negotiations, including a 10-day extension of Trump’s deadline to April 6, and fresh economic signals.

While Tehran rejected US ultimatums and warned of retaliation, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul confirmed indirect contacts and upcoming direct talks in Pakistan.

Yet, the subdued market response suggests skepticism over a near-term deal, with President Trump seen as using the delay to deploy more troops to the region.

Bank of England policy expectations have reversed sharply this month: traders now anticipate at least two rate hikes this year, with a possible third, after previously pricing in two cuts.

Domestically, UK retail sales fell 0.4% in February, less than expected, but consumer confidence hit a near one-year low in March, reflecting growing unease over the conflict’s toll on inflation and economic growth.



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Sterling Slips Amid Iran Tensions, BoE Hike Bets
The British pound edged toward $1.33 as traders assessed the latest in US-Iran negotiations, including a 10-day extension of Trump’s deadline to April 6, and fresh economic signals. While Tehran rejected US ultimatums and warned of retaliation, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul confirmed indirect contacts and upcoming direct talks in Pakistan. Yet, the subdued market response suggests skepticism over a near-term deal, with President Trump seen as using the delay to deploy more troops to the region. Bank of England policy expectations have reversed sharply this month: traders now anticipate at least two rate hikes this year, with a possible third, after previously pricing in two cuts. Domestically, UK retail sales fell 0.4% in February, less than expected, but consumer confidence hit a near one-year low in March, reflecting growing unease over the conflict’s toll on inflation and economic growth.
2026-03-27
Sterling Slides as Middle East Tensions Rattle Markets
The British pound dipped toward $1.33 as risk aversion surged amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. President Trump claimed Iran seeks a deal but "fears admitting it," while Iranian state media rejected negotiations, instead pushing for unilateral guarantees, including potential fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices soared, with Brent nearing $105/barrel and poised for its largest monthly gain since 1990. UK consumer confidence plunged in March, hitting record lows as the conflict stoked inflation fears. Markets now anticipate two to three Bank of England rate hikes, with a 70% chance of a move next month and a second fully priced in by July.
2026-03-26
Pound Steady as Middle East Tensions Ease and UK Inflation Holds
The British pound held firm near $1.34 on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, with reports indicating Washington proposed a 15-point peace plan to Tehran following a potential one-month ceasefire. Iran dismissed involvement in negotiations, stating, "No one can trust US diplomacy." In the UK, February’s inflation data showed consumer prices unchanged at 3%, matching forecasts, while core CPI edged up to 3.2%, slightly above the expected 3.1%. However, the figures, which predate the Middle East conflict, had little market impact. Investors now anticipate only two Bank of England rate increases by year-end, down from earlier forecasts of three, as easing oil prices reduce concerns over inflationary pressures from high energy costs.
2026-03-25