UK Private-Sector Activity Unexpectedly Contracts

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI fell to 48.5 in May of 2026 from 52.6 in the previous month, reflecting the first decline in activity in over one year and firmly below market expectations of an expansion of 51.6, according to a preliminary estimate. Activity unexpectedly dropped for services providers (47.9 vs 52.7 in April), the lowest in over five years, outweighing the faster expansion for goods producers (52.4 vs 51.8). New business at the aggregate level amid uncertainty for clients and weaker investment sentiment. A sharper decline was prevented by an influx of orders for manufacturers as clients attempted to beat price hikes due shortly as the war in the Middle East lifted input cost inflation. The gauge eased slightly but remained well above the long-term average, and output charge inflation remained steady at a 3-year high. Meanwhile, payroll numbers fell for the20th straight month, with firms blaming higher National Insurance contributions.

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI rose to 52.6 in April of 2026 from 50.3 in the previous month, revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 52 and well above the initial market expectations of 49.8 to reflect fresh traction in British private-sector economic output. Faster expansions took place both for manufacturers and service providers to reflect marked resilience to macroeconomic headwinds from the war in Iran, namely the surge in energy and power prices. New orders and business at the aggregate level inched higher from the previous period. Still, the business outlook for goods producers was hit as the panel noted that many orders were placed from clients frontloading concerns of war-drive disruptions to come. Employment decreased for the 19th strait month with firms blaming higher National Insurance contributions.

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI jumped to 52.0 in April of 2026 from 50.3 in the previous month, well above expectations of 49.8 to reflect fresh traction in the British private-sector economic output. The pickup in momentum was observed in both manufacturing (51.8 vs 49.2 in March) and services (52.0 vs 50.5) to reflect marked resilience to macroeconomic headwinds from the war in Iran, namely the surge in energy and power prices. New orders and business at the aggregate level was steady as moderate growth for goods producers offset the marginal reduction for services. Still, the business outlook for goods producers was hit as the panel noted that many orders were placed from clients frontloading concerns of war-drive disruptions to come. Employment decreased for the 19th strait month with firms blaming higher National Insurance contributions. Meanwhile, input costs surged the most on record for services providers, driving aggregate charge inflation to its highest since June 2022.