UK Private Sector Activity Revised Lower

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI jumped to 52.0 in April of 2026 from 50.3 in the previous month, well above expectations of 49.8 to reflect fresh traction in the British private-sector economic output. The pickup in momentum was observed in both manufacturing (51.8 vs 49.2 in March) and services (52.0 vs 50.5) to reflect marked resilience to macroeconomic headwinds from the war in Iran, namely the surge in energy and power prices. New orders and business at the aggregate level was steady as moderate growth for goods producers offset the marginal reduction for services. Still, the business outlook for goods producers was hit as the panel noted that many orders were placed from clients frontloading concerns of war-drive disruptions to come. Employment decreased for the 19th strait month with firms blaming higher National Insurance contributions. Meanwhile, input costs surged the most on record for services providers, driving aggregate charge inflation to its highest since June 2022.

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI was revised down sharply to 50.3 in March 2026, below both the preliminary estimate of 51 and February’s 53.7, marking the slowest business activity growth in six months. The reading points to only a marginal expansion, as the Middle East war saps momentum across the economy. Service sector growth stalled, while manufacturing output contracted again, reversing recent gains. On the cost front, input price inflation surged to its highest level since February 2023, squeezing margins. Meanwhile, business confidence plunged to its lowest since June 2025, reflecting deepening concerns over the economic outlook.

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI fell to 51.0 in March 2026, down from 53.7 in February and below expectations of 52.9, according to preliminary data. This marks the slowest output growth since September 2025, as both services and manufacturing activity weakened. New business inflows declined for the first time in four months, with firms attributing the drop to falling confidence amid the Middle East conflict, rising inflation, and expectations of higher borrowing costs. Employment declined at a faster pace, and business confidence plunged to a nine-month low. On the price front, input cost inflation hit its highest since February 2023, with manufacturers reporting the steepest cost increases since October 2022 and the sharpest month-on-month acceleration since October 1992, just after the UK’s Black Wednesday. Output charges also surged, adding to cost pressures.