New Zealand Terms of Trade Beats Estimates in Q3

New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade rose 3.7% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to December 2025, reversing the prior quarter’s 2.1% deterioration and way above expectations of a 0.7% drop. The improvement reflected stronger relative export prices, which rose 5.3%, against a 1.5% increase in import prices. In value terms, export values for goods rose 1.6% to $19.4 billion as export volumes fell 3.2%, while import values rose 5.3% to $20.5 billion as import volumes rose 5.8%. The stronger terms of trade indicate increased purchasing power for New Zealand exporters despite falling export volumes.

New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade fell 2.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2025, reversing the prior quarter’s improvement and way below expectations of a 0.3% increase. The deterioration reflected weaker relative export prices, which fell 1.6%, against a 0.5% increase in import prices. In value terms, export values for goods rose 3.0% to $19.1 billion amid higher export volumes, while import values edged up 0.1% to $19.4 billion as import volumes fell 1.2%. The weaker terms of trade indicate reduced purchasing power for New Zealand exporters despite rising export volumes.

New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade rose 4.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June 2025, accelerating from a 1.9% increase in the first quarter and beating market forecasts of 1.9%. The improvement reflected stronger relative export prices, which edged up 0.2%, against a sharper 3.7% fall in import prices, partly driven by lower fuel and consumer goods costs. In value terms, exports declined 4.8% to $18.6 billion amid softer dairy and meat shipments, while imports slipped 1.2% to $19.4 billion as demand for capital goods eased. The stronger terms of trade indicate improved purchasing power for New Zealand exporters despite weaker trade volumes.