Retail sales in Colombia rose 6.5 percent year-on-year in October 2018, up from a 5.9 percent increase in the prior month and beating market expectations of a 5.6 percent gain. It is the strongest rise in retail trade since June 2015. In October, of the 16 product segments, a total of 14 registered gains in sales. The biggest increases in retail sales were recorded for motor vehicles and motorbikes (14.3%); food & non-alcoholic beverages (5.8%); electronic products for personal or domestic use (15.3%); fuels (4.9%) and DIY, glass and paintings (8.8%). Considering the first ten months of 2018, retail sales advanced 5.5 percent over a year ago. On a monthly basis, retail trade rose 2 percent, after decreasing 2 percent in September. Retail Sales YoY in Colombia averaged 5.08 percent from 2000 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23.37 percent in April of 2011 and a record low of -7.59 percent in September of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Colombia is expected to be 6.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Colombia to stand at 5.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Colombia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.