The economy of Sri Lanka advanced 1.8 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, slowing from an upwardly revised 3.5 percent expansion the prior period. It was the weakest growth rate since the first quarter of 2014, as the industrial sector shrank (-3.6% vs 3.1% in Q3) namely construction (-10.1% vs 4.9%), machinery & equipment (-1.9% vs 1.1%), mining & quarrying (-14.9% vs -1.1%), production of paper, printing and reproduction of media (-11.7% vs -5.1%), and chemicals & pharmaceutical products (-9.4% vs -2.7%). Meantime, services activities grew 4.3 percent, the same pace as in the previous quarter, mostly driven by transportation (3.3% vs 1.3%), financial services (12.6% vs 11.5%), insurance (22.4% vs 5.1%) and education (5% vs 1.3%). Also, agriculture, forestry & fishing increased 4.5 percent, higher than a 4 percent expansion in the third quarter. Considering full 2018, the economy grew 3.2 percent, easing from a 3.4 percent expansion in 2017. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Sri Lanka averaged 5.71 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 16.12 percent in the first quarter of 2012 and a record low of 0.50 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Sri Lanka is expected to be 2.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Sri Lanka to stand at 3.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.