China Manufacturing PMI Below Forecasts

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in January 2026 from 50.1 in the previous month, missing market estimates of 50. The latest reading signaled a loss of momentum in factory activity at the start of the year, as subdued demand conditions and cautious business sentiment continued to weigh amid ongoing structural headwinds. New orders slipped back into contraction (49.2 vs 50.8 in December), alongside a slowdown in output growth (50.6 vs 51.7). Foreign sales weakened further (47.8 vs 49.0), employment remained soft (48.1 vs 48.2), and purchasing activity declined sharply (48.7 vs 51.1). Simultaneously, delivery times were broadly unchanged (50.1 vs 50.2). On the cost front, input prices rose for a sixth consecutive month, with the pace of increase accelerating notably (56.1 vs 53.1). Selling prices returned to expansion (50.6 vs 48.9), ending a prolonged period of decrease. Finally, business confidence dropped to a six-month low (52.6 vs 55.5).

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.1 in December 2025, surpassing both November’s reading and expectations of 49.2. It marked the first expansion in factory activity since March, with output (51.7 vs 50.0 in November) and purchasing activity (51.1 vs 49.5) both growing for the first time in three months, amid the government's efforts to boost demand. At the same time, new orders rose for the first time since June and at the fastest pace in nine months (50.8 vs 49.2), while foreign sales fell at the slowest pace in nine months (49.0 vs 47.6). Meanwhile, employment remained weak (48.2 vs 48.4), and delivery times were broadly steady (50.2 vs 50.1). On the inflation front, input costs rose for the sixth consecutive month, albeit at a softer rate (53.1 vs 53.6). Selling prices continued to fall, though at the slowest rate in four months (48.9 vs 48.2). Looking ahead, business confidence improved (55.5 vs 53.1)

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.2 in November 2025 from October’s six-month low of 49.0, matching market expectations. However, it marked the eighth straight month of decline in factory activity, as manufacturers faced persistently weak demand, intensified price competition at home, and cautious export sentiment amid global uncertainty. New orders fell for the fifth consecutive month (49.2 vs 48.8 in October), while foreign sales (47.6 vs 45.9), purchasing activity (49.5 vs 49.0), and employment (48.4 vs 48.3) all remained weak. At the same time, output stagnated after October’s first decrease in six months (50.0 vs 49.7), and delivery times were broadly steady (50.1 vs 50.0). On inflation, input costs rose for the fifth consecutive month, with a faster pace of increase (53.6 vs. 52.5). Selling prices continued to fall, albeit at a slower rate (48.2 vs. 47.5). Finally, business confidence strengthened from October’s three-month low (53.1 vs 52.8).